From Exodus to Exitus Causes of post-war violence in El ... - eDoc

From Exodus to Exitus 17
proves to be especially relevant; even according to official statistics it is twice as high as the
average in the rest of the population.
Thus the enormous value of remittances to the economic structure of El Salvador has
been shown from its percentage share of foreign currency inflow, export volumes and
GDP. Remittances create advantages because they make consumption possible. But this is
consumption on tick, because remittances mean consumption without (local) production,
imports without exports, and wage losses and loss of importance of labour. Remittance
influx and growth of GDP are inversely related to one another, because the loss of
human capital – the main source of economic development – through emigration leads to
recessive consequences. This is confirmed by the fact that the nominal GDP growth rate
has been falling in El Salvador since 1995, while the remittance rate has simultaneously
been increasing. Experts on violence have discovered that there is a correlation between
falling economic growth rates and increasing crime (Fajnzilber et al. 2000: 219-302). If
there is a correlation between increasing remittances and falling/stagnating GDP, as well
as between high/increasing GDP and low/falling homicide rates, then there is also a correlation
between increasing remittances and increasing homicide rates (Cáceres 2006: 602).
Step 3: The exceptional value of Salvadoran remittances in a Central American
comparative context and the correlation of rates of remittances and
violence on the isthmus
Figure 5 illustrates that since the beginning of post-war violent crime in 1992 the annual
remittance inflow is not only steadily increasing, as was already the case during the war,
but that its growth rate has a particularly steep gradient. It is therefore possible to identify
a correlation between the fundamentally high homicide rates and the remittance rates,
which are high and which also increased sharply at the time the post-war period began.
While this demonstrates a correlation with the generally high factor of the post-war homicide
rate, it does not yet explain its sine-curve progression. For this explanation, the relevant
factors are expounded in Chapter 4.2.2.
Figure 5: Annual remittance transfers to El Salvador, in billions of US dollars
3
2
1
0
Source: Orozco 2004 b: 4.
0,01 0,04 0,09 0,13 0,17
0,2
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
In Latin and Central America it is El Salvador where remittances make up the largest
proportion of export volume at 54.6 %. In second place in Central America, but with 20
percentage points difference, comes Nicaragua (FMI 2000). Only in the Dominican Re-
0,47
0,79
1,06
1,2
1,37
1,91
2,1