Chart-Technique FX & FI - Raiffeisen Bank International AG

Chart-Technique FX & FI 

June 17th, 2011 

Corporate Presentation August 2010

Table of Contents 

� Keynotes 3 

� EUR / USD 4 

� USD / JPY 5 

� EUR / JPY 6 

� EUR / CHF 7 

� EUR Bund Future 8 

� U.S.T.-Note Future 9 

� EUR / CZK 10 

� EUR / HUF 11 

� EUR / PLN 12 

� EUR / RON 13 

� Appendix 14 

note: the analyses included herein have been made from 09:30 to 11:32 CET 

Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler 

2

Keynotes 

Coverage 

Markets 

U.S.A. 

Germany 

CEE & Others 

Highlights 

� T-Note’s major resistance, i.e. 122-24, cd get crossed and after a bullish confirmation at 

123-05 an advance towards 127 - 127 follow. The MAVs at 122-11 and 121-15 provide some 

support. Bulishness wd be re-newed at 123-10 clearing the path towards 127. 

� EUR / USD has to cross 1.4560 in order to confirm bullishness and so it wd have to do with 

1.50. In the meantime it is to be rated neutral inst the range 1.42 – 1.4560. 

� The Bund has a hard time at 124.65and cd fall back to about 121.50, but the next attempt 

at 124.60 might already open the doors towards 124 - 16.60. 

� EUR / CHF should confirm bearishness at 1.19 and hit the FSL at 1.1750 soon. 

� EUR / JPY should hit its trend-channel’s FSL at 111.00 and 107.70 later – and not find enough 

support at 112.80. 

� USD / JPY is testing out 79 again. Bearish confirmation wd be 75 -> 67.70 – 60. 

� EUR/RON: should it really cross 4.28 the following rally towards 4.43 would be minimum 

expectation, i.e. it cd also make it towards 4.581, thereafter. 


3

EUR / USD 

Letzter Kurs / Last Price: 

1.4141 

Strategie / Strategy: Sell 

Kursziel / Target: 1.4065 – 1.3940 

Unterstützungen / Supports: 

- 1.4071 � trend-low 

- 1.4040 � minor support 

- 1.3940 � FSL 

Widerstände/ Resistances: 

- 1.4225 � Tweezers‘ 

- 1.4310 � minor resistance 


BEARISH 

Analyse: 

Keilformation und bear Flagge und der 

Kurs testet die FSL bei 1,42, daher kann 

1,3940 halten – oder es kommt trotz des 

bullishen Keils zu einem Fall bis 1,38 

und 1,36. 

K 1,4235 � 1,4325 – 1,4420.. 

VK � 1,4065 – 1,3940… 

Analysis: 

Wedge-pattern and bear Flag and the 

FSL at 1.42 being tested. Thus either 

1.3940 holds firm – or although this per 

se is a bullish Wedge it falls back 

towards 1.38 and 1.36. 

Buy 1.4235 � 1.4325 – 1.4420… 

Sell � 1.4065 – 1.3940… 

Timestamp: 09:53 CET 


4

USD / JPY 


80.47 

Strategie / Strategy: Sell 79.35 



- 79.00 � major support 

- 76.99 � Downtrust 

- 75.73 � Fibo 



- 82.25 � HighWave 


BEARISH 

Analyse: 

Die Langzeit-Unterstützung bei 79 

könnte in Kürze fallen, wenn es zu 

einem VK-Signal bei 79,35 kommt, 

damit wäre ein Fall bis 67 und 60 drin. 

K 82,50 � 86,60… 

VK 79,35 � 77,60 – 75,70… 

Analysis: 

The long-term support 79 might fail to 

again provide support, wd the sell-signal 

at 79.35 get triggered. In the latter case 

it wd give way to a decrease vs. 67 and 

60. 

Buy 82.50 � 86.60… 

Sell 79.35 � 77.60 – 75.70… 



5

EUR / JPY 


113.77 

Strategie / Strategy: sell 




- 112.80 � Fibo 

- 111.00 � FSL 



- 115.20 � Rectangle 

- 116.00 � Fibo 

BEARISH 

Analyse: 

Innerhalb des Abwärtstrends und am 

Tief bei 113.40, aber dennoch sollte 

111 erreicht werden – und 107,70. 

K 115,40 � 116,50… 

VK � 112,80 – 111,00… 

VK 110,00 � 107,70… 

Analysis: 

Within the downward trend and at the 

low, i.e. 113.40, but it should hit 111 

and 107.70. 

Buy 115.40 � 116.50… 

Sell � 122.80 – 111.00… 

Sell 110.00 � 107.70… 



6

EUR / CHF 


1.2026 

Strategie / Strategy: Sell 1.1965 



- 1.1990 � Fibo 

- 1.1939 � trend-low 

- 1.1865 � Fibo 

Widerstände/ Resistances:- 



- 1.2200 � major resistance 

BEARISH 

Analyse: 

Der Trendkanal deutet hin auf einen Fall 

bis 0,90, die bearishe Bestätigung wäre 

bei 1,20 gegeben. Rebounds bis 1,22 

sind nicht ausgeschlossen. 

K 1,2125 � 1,2200 – 1,2250 …. 

VK 1,1965 � 1,1860 – 1,1735… 

Analysis: 

The trend-channel lets assume a 

decrease towards 0.90, bearish 

confirmation wd be 1.20. Rebounds to 

1.22 cannot be ruled out yet. 

Buy 1.2125 � 1.2200 – 1.2250… 

Sell 1.1965 � 1.1860 – 1.1735… 



7

EUR Bund Future 


126.56 

Strategie / Strategy: Buy 





- 125.66 � MAV 


- 126.62 � trend-high 

- 127.00 � Fibo 

- 127.35 � Fibo 

BULLISH 

Analyse: 

Fortsetzung des bullishen Trends nach 

Ausbruch aus aktueller Konsolidierung 

wahrscheinlich. 

K � 127,00 – 127,35… 

VK 125,20 � 124,55 … 

Analysis: 

Continuation of bullish trend after 

breakout from current consolidation 

pattern likely. 

Buy � 127.00 – 127.35… 

Sell 125.20 � 124.55… 



8

U.S.T.-Note Future 



- 125-05 � minor support 

- 124-26 � MAV 

- 124-19 � minor support 

125-15 

Strategie / Strategy: Buy 

Kursziel / Target: 126-00 – 126-25 


- 125-28 � trend-high 

- 126-00 � minor resistance 

- 126-25 � Fibo 

BULLISH 

Analyse: 

Am Weg gen‘ 126-25, danach sollte 

130 möglich sein. 

K � 126-00 – 126-25… 

VK 124-25 � 124-07… 

Analysis: 

On the way to 126-25, thereafter it 

might hit 130. 

Buy � 126-00 – 126-25… 

Sell 124-25 � 124-07… 



9

EUR / CZK 


24.21 

Strategie / Strategy: Buy 24.29 



- 24.04 � RSL 


- 24.14 � MAV 

Widerstände / Resistances: 


- 24.80 � Top Thrust 

- 24.28 � MAV 

NEUTRAL 

Analyse: 

Nach starkem Kursrückgang innerhalb 

des Rechtecks Rebound wahrscheinlich. 

Kauf: 24,29 � 24,33 – 24,62 

Verkauf: 24,10 � 24,02 – 23,85 

Analysis: 

After sharp drop within Rectangle 

might rebound. 

Buy: 24.29 � 24.33 – 24.62 

Sell: 24.10 � 24.02 – 23.85 



10

EUR / HUF 


268.87 





- 264.46 � Rectangle`s mean 

- 265.65 � Fibo 


- 272.68 � Year High 

- 271.45 � Fibo 

- 269.54 � Fibo 

BULLISH 

Analyse: 

Ausbruch aus Rechteck führte zu Rallye, 

deren Fortbestand bei 269,54 bestätigt 

wäre, daher: 

Kauf: 269,56 � 271,45 – 272,30 

VK: 267,67 � 266,62 – 265,65 

Analysis: 

Left Rectangle and might confirm further 

rally at 269,54 thus: 

Buy: 269.56 � 271.45. – 272.30 

Sell: 267.67 � 266.62 – 265.65 



11

EUR / PLN 


3.979 




- 3.9018 � Rectangle`s support 

- 3.9533 � MAV 

- 3.9692 � Fibo 

Widerstände / Resistances: 

- 4.0200 � Tweezers‘ 

- 4.0117 � Fibo 

- 3.9854 � Fibo 

NEUTRAL 

Analyse: 

Erneute Rallye nach Konsolidierung, die 

fortbestehen sollte. 

Kauf: 3,988 � 4,011– 4,029 

Verkauf: 3,969 � 3.942…. 

Analysis: 

A new increase should continue after the 

current consolidation. 

Buy: 3.988 � 4.011 – 4.029 

Sell: 3.969 � 3.942… 



12

EUR / RON 


4.2305 




- 4.2027 � Fibo 


- 4.1576 � MAV 


- 4.2466 � Fibo 

- 4.3265 � High 

- 4.2520 � RRL 

NEUTRAL 

Analyse: 

Rallye könnte nach starkem Anstieg 

anhalten und konsolidieren. 

Kauf: 4.246 � 4.254– 4.288 

VK: 4.221 � 4.201 – 4,175 

Analysis: 

Rally could stop and consolidate after 

sharp increase. 

Buy: 4.246 � 4.254 – 4.288 

Sell: 4.221 � 4.201 – 4.175 



13

Glossary 

Abbreviation Means Translation Interpretation 

ATH All-Time-High Allzeit-Hoch crossing = confirmation 

ATL All-Time-Low Allzeit-Tief crossing = confirmation 

Bear. bearish downward tendency 

Bounce-Back Rücksetzer temporary retracement 

to former resistance-level 

Bull. bullish upward tendency 

Dead-Cross spez. Verkaufsignal MAVs’ sell-signal 

Doji small scrap Kleinkram Candlestick-Pattern 

Fibo Fibonacci Retracement/Projection major support or 

resistance, target 

FRL Falling-Resistance Line Abwärtstrendlinie crossing = trends’ end 

FSL Falling-Support Line Abwärtstrendlinie crossing = confirmation 

Gap Kurslücke support or resistance 

K Kauf buy Stop-Entry Buy 

MAV Moving Average Durchschnittslinie Simple Moving Average 

RSL Rising-Support Line Aufwärtstrendlinie crossing = trend’s end 

RRL Rising-Resistance Line Aufwärtstrendlinie crossing = confirmation 

Rebound Erholung temporary movement 

against trend 

Rectangle Rechteck Klassische Formationslehre 

Star Sternchen Candlestick-Pattern 

Stop Technical Stop = not 

based on Money Mgmt 

Triangle Dreieck Klassische Formationslehre 

Tweezers’ Tweezers’ Top or Bottom Candlestick-Pattern 

VK Verkauf Sell Stop-Entry Short 


14

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Disclaimer 

All financial and non-financial information and statistical data are based both on historical data and the methods Technical Analysis as explained in 

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illustrative purposes only. Source of data is Thomson Reuters, source of Technical Analysis is Raiffeisen RESEARCH. 

All analyses in this report solely are based on the methods of technical analysis. Thus results might differ from those of macro- and micro-economical 

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16

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