Through the Cycle - IBISWorld

C&I Lending
in Challenging Times
A smart lender can still find
solid opportunities in C&I_p.12
December 2011–January 2012
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12
Economic Environment
December 2011–January 2012 The RMA Journal
Hemera/THinksTock

Through the Cycle Cycle
by Rick buczynski
How to Identify
the Best C&I
Lending Opportunities
in Challenging Times
As of this writing in early September, there is no
beacon to light a clear course through stormy economic
seas. The financial markets continue to ebb
and flow on the unpredictable tides of good
and bad economic news. Consumer confidence
remains weak and fragile. Households
are tightening their belts and working off
their heavy debts
Keynes’s “paradox of thrift” warns us that
starving this financial fever may just leave us
all dead from hunger. Still, it is not bad news,
just a necessary adjustment to the overleveraged
spending spree that was a key factor in
the euphoric run-up of household debt, a
harbinger of the Great Recession (Figure 1).
Business investment and private-sector
job creation, both necessary catalysts for a
solid, sustainable recovery, seem trapped in
a maelstrom of uncertainty despite generally
strong profits and a corporate America awash
Markets can remain irrational longer
than you can remain solvent.
Figure 1
$2,600
$2,550
$2,500
$2,450
$2,400
$2,350
$2,300
John Maynard Keynes, British economist (1883-1946)
in cash. Profits have been robust, while the national
unemployment rate remains stubbornly high (Figure
2). The unemployment numbers (14 million)
Total Consumer Credit Outstanding:
Stepping Down from (or Falling Off?)
the Mountain of Debt
Billions, Seasonally Adjusted
$2,250
2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07 2009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07 2011-01 2011-06
Source: Federal Reserve Board
The RMA Journal December 2011–January 2012
13

14
Figure 2
$2,000
$1,900
$1,800
$1,700
$1,600
$1,500
$1,400
$1,300
$1,200
$1,100
Figure 3
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Profits Rise Amid Weak Job Creation
$1,000 2008 2009 2010 QI 2011 QII 2011
underestimate the underemployed (8.8 million part-time
workers seeking full-time work) and discouraged workers
(those who have dropped out of the labor market, probably
another 6 or 7 million people).
Unlike the fiscal stimulus provided by the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), federal,
state, and local governments are facing the prospects of
unprecedented austerity as the debate to contain growth
of public debt has taken center stage (Figure 3).
President Obama’s recent job creation initiative is a step
in the right direction, albeit a small one given the dearth
of fiscal ammunition the administration needs to prime its
governmental guns. To be sure, traction will clearly have
to come from the private sector as U.S. policy makers have
December 2011–January 2012 The RMA Journal
Corp Profits (B)
Unemploy (%)
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Real Government Spending: Goodbye Stimulus?
Seasonally Adjusted, Annualized
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011
10
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
9
8
7
6
5
Federal Defense
Federal Nondefense
State and Local
yet to find the Holy Grail that will pull the U.S. out of the
malaise.
Compounding jitters are problems brewing overseas,
including China’s fight to control inflation and the European
Union’s struggle to contain the region’s sovereign debt
crisis.
According to September’s National Association of Business
Economists survey, GDP growth this year will be a
paltry 1.7% and will then accelerate slightly to 2.3% in
2012. These forecasts are down 1% from the May survey.
Unquestionably, the likelihood of a deleterious double-dip
recession has increased.
So… Where Do We Go from Here?
An article in the December 2009-January 2010 RMA Journal 1
offered some suggestions for finding solid C&I lending
opportunities, which may be worth rereading since much
of that analysis remains relevant. As underscored above,
however, the economic landscape has changed dramatically
and several of IBISWorld’s banking clients recommended
that we revisit the topic.
Obviously, this article can’t possibly delineate all of the
lending opportunities or risks. Nonetheless, its aim is to
provide some insights and, in particular, offer a methodology
for seeking sensible opportunities. Our criteria will
identify sectors that:
• Are in the growth phase of their industry life cycle and
are well positioned to take advantage of a sustained, if
not spotty, economic rebound.
• Do not present inordinate risks should a double-dip
recession or shallow growth path result.
• Are not excessively volatile.
• Possess some attractive attributes regarding the level of
competition and barriers to entry (based on the work of
Anita McGahan and Michael Porter 2 ).
• Are capital-intensive, implying a large borrowing
capacity.
• Can be potentially targeted as small business or midmarket
clients.
• Have strong growth potential over the next five years.
Not an easy task indeed! But we believe we have a strong
algorithm that takes advantage of the winds of change to
clear the fog.
What Can We Learn from History and the Recent Cycle?
Although each cycle has its own unique characteristics, a
long-term analysis of past economic recoveries reveals a
concrete starting point.
Using real value-added 3 data at the two-digit NAICS
(North American Industry Classification System) level
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the timing
of recession troughs as defined by the National Bureau
of Economic Research, IBISWorld examined the last 10

ecoveries going back to 1950 (Great Recession data was
excluded). The research measured sectoral growth and its
volatility versus that of GDP. Table 1 combines this data
with figures from the 2008–09 recession and 2010, the
year of recovery.
Table 1
Industry Sector
Gross domestic
product (GDP)
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing & hunting
Value Added by Industry (Average Annual Growth, % Change)
Great
Recession
Growth
Recovery
Year 2010
Average of
Previous
Recoveries
Difference
2010 and
Previous
-2.6% 2.9% 5.0% -2.1%
Historical
Volatility
Index
14.4% 0.9% 1.8% -0.9% Very High
Mining 24.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% High
Utilities -3.0% 1.3% 4.3% -3.0% Medium
Construction -21.3% -3.7% 3.1% -6.8% High
Manufacturing -13.5% 5.8% 7.8% -2.0% Medium-High
Wholesale trade 2.7% 4.2% 7.2% -3.0% Medium-High
Retail trade -8.9% 5.2% 6.3% -1.1% Medium
Transportation &
warehousing
-12.2% 1.8% 5.9% -4.1% Medium-High
Information 1.6% 4.9% 5.2% -0.3% Low
Finance and insurance 2.2% 3.2% 2.4% 0.8% Medium
Real estate & rental
and leasing
Professional, scientific
& technical services
Administrative &
waste mgmt services
0.7% 0.7% 4.7% -4.0% Medium
0.8% 2.3% 3.9% -1.6% Medium
-10.4% 5.4% 5.1% 0.3% Medium
Educational services 0.3% 0.2% 3.1% -2.9% Medium
Health care &
social assistance
Arts, entertainment
& recreation
Accommodation
& food services
Other services,
except government
5.8% 2.8% 4.7% -1.9% Low
-9.4% 5.4% 5.0% 0.4% Medium
-14.6% 3.2% 5.0% -1.8% Medium
-11.6% 1.5% 2.4% -0.9% Medium
Sources: Chain-Type Quantity Indexes for Value Added by Industry, Bureau of Economic Analysis; IBISWorld
Notes: Great Recession growth was cumulative over the 2008–09 period. The column “Difference 2010 and Previous” is the “Recovery
Year 2010” column minus the “Average of Previous Recoveries” column. Historical volatility is measured using standard deviations
of the value-added data in recovery years. It was built using standard deviations of the economic recovery years since 1950.
Below is a selected summary of Table 1. The next section
drills down to a more granular five-digit level.
• Agriculture and mining: We decided to group these together
since commodity prices can be highly correlated
(see our July–August 2011 Journal article on oil prices 4 ).
These highly volatile industries expanded rapidly during
the Great Recession, riding the wave of buoyant prices
bucking historical trends, until the “destructive demand”
factor kicked in. To quote our July piece: “Higher (commodity)
prices undermine demand in a weakened economy,
trimming the sails of hyped-up energy (commodity)
prices.” There are nonetheless a myriad of lending opportunities
that we’ll address.
• Utilities: This relatively low-risk, low-variance sector
seems to run in tandem with general economic performance.
It does not lead or lag.
• Construction: This sector is, in a word, horrible. Residential
housing remains in the doldrums and the commercial
real estate
market is weak. Public
works spending,
the centerpiece of the
ARRA, seems doubtful
in the near future
given the burden of
government debt.
• Manufacturing: This
sector typically out-
Higher (commodity)
prices undermine
demand in a weakened
economy, trimming the
sails of hyped-up energy
(commodity) prices.
performs other industry segments in recovery years and
2010 was no exception, growing 5.8% compared with a
2.9% climb in GDP. Durable goods production was up
nearly 10%.
• Trade: Historically, both wholesale and retail trade rebound
sharply during recoveries. However, there are
many caveats on the retail side given broad, powerful
structural changes. Inroads made by warehouse clubs
and super-centers, together with consumers’ growing
preference for buying online, have cut so deeply into
traditional retail shopping that many of these retailers,
sturdy 10 to 15 years ago, are barely surviving today.
• Transportation and warehousing: This highly procyclical
sector tracks GDP very closely and is therefore vulnerable
to downside risks. In fact, this group declined a
whopping 12.2% during 2008–09. Air transportation fell
12.5% during the two-year recessionary period, while
rail went off the tracks even farther, dropping more than
16%. Warehousing and storage fell “only” 6.6%, possibly
on the need to find space for unsold inventories.
• Information: This industry has been dominated by rapid
structural and technological change. It’s populated by
industries in the growth phase of their life cycles (software
publishing) as well as those in serious declines (audio
production studios). Hence, the analysis of aggregates
simply dilutes the granular realities. The following section
will help identify some key sweet spots.
• Finance and insurance: This sector is a laggard during economic
recoveries. Although it actually expanded slightly
during the recession, if we do the math for the 2007–09
period the group as a whole contracted. Hit especially
hard were investment banks and related entities (NAICS
523)—think Lehman Brothers and WaMu—which contracted
more than 30% in the three-year time frame.
• Professional, scientific, and technical services: This segment
held up well during the recession, but experienced a
tepid upturn in 2010. Nonetheless, we think there are
positive points of interest, as will be articulated below.
• Administrative and waste management services: This sector
The RMA Journal December 2011–January 2012 15

16
contracted more than 10% during the recession, but seems
to be on the uptick. Garbage in, garbage out, so this group
emerges from recessions without much volatility.
• Educational and health care services: These services tend to
be stable historically. However, government budget constraints,
together with the cautious discretionary spending
patterns of households, are complicating attempts to rank
lending opportunities in these important areas.
• Arts, entertainment, and recreation and Accommodation and
food services: These two industry sectors mirror GDP performance
in recovery years, which doesn’t augur well in an
iffy economic climate. They declined precipitously during
the Great Recession (9.4% and 14.6%, respectively).
Some Selected Opportunities
Agriculture and Forestry
Many banks have a long history of lending successfully to
this sector despite its volatility. Some notable areas going
forward are shown in Table 2.
Table 2
Industry
(5-Digit NAICS)
Agriculture a Safe Bet, with Some Strong Lending Opportunities
Revenue 2011 MM$
5-Year Average
Growth 2011-15
Soybean, oilseed, and corn farming may continue to benefit
from government policies to support renewable energy
sources. However, an article on alternative energy in the
September 2011 Journal 5 pointed out that biofuels are not
cost effective without government support. Nonetheless,
economic recovery will buttress farm prices. As for soybeans
and corn, depleted stocks suggest firm prices through 2012,
which could spill over to other basic commodities.
Generally, high capital requirements indicate a strong
capacity to borrow further, enhancing the allure of this
sector. Riding the wave of the trend to outsource, excellent
opportunities can be found in agriculture and forestry
support services in this capital-hungry group.
Energy and Utilities
An article in the July–August 2011 Journal 6 addressed opportunities
and risks associated with exposure to the natural
December 2011–January 2012 The RMA Journal
Capital Intensity
Dairy farms 33,500 2.3% High
Forest support services 2,230 3.6% Medium
Soybean farming 29,789 1.1% High
Oilseed farming 867 3.9% High
Corn farming 72,063 3.4% High
Cotton farming 11,453 1.3% High
Chicken & turkey
meat production
27,940 1.5% High
Crop services 13,671 3.3% High
Livestock production
support
4,821 2.6% Medium
Timber services 1,043 2.9% High
Source: IBISWorld, Inc.
gas supply chain. One bright area singled out was smallscale
gas exploration and production, where lending would
range between $5 million and $50 million.
To be sure, care must be taken when accessing plans in
this arena. As the September Journal article points out, there
is a clear disparity between firms that generate alternative
energy and those that manufacture equipment. One case in
point is solar power providers, an emerging industry that
made our short list in Table 3. In contrast, solar panel
producers face adverse competition from low-cost producers
overseas, such as China. The recent bankruptcy of
government-supported solar panel manufacturer Solyndra
underscores this risk.
Table 3
Industry
(5-Digit NAICS)
Energy and Utilities: Strong Growth and Borrowing Appetite
Revenue 2011 MM$
5-Year Average
Growth 2011-15
Capital Intensity
Solar power 79 7.9% High
Water supply
& irrigation
Sewage treatment
facilities
59,995 3.5% High
41,587 1.8% High
Source: IBISWorld, Inc.
Construction
Despite record-low interest rates, housing remains in the
doldrums and commercial real estate is a nonstarter at this
juncture. As analyzed in a July 2011 IBISWorld special
report, 7 public works projects are likely to experience heavy
cuts as the government retreats from the free-spending days
of the ARRA.
For the longer term, we are more bullish on the residential
side. Household formation, a leading driver of growth,
is still robust. When the U.S. finally achieves sustained
GDP growth and job creation, home builders and hired
contractors will benefit, and there is a grand upside here as
housing starts have been at dreadfully low levels for more
than four years. The $64,000 question is when a revival
will take place (Table 4).
Table 4
Industry
(5-Digit NAICS)
Construction’s Bright Spots
Revenue 2011 MM$
5-Year Average
Growth 2011-15
Capital Intensity
Water well drilling 4,704 4.2% Medium
Oil & gas pipeline
construction
Road & highway
maintenance
38,880 5.0% Medium
46,000 3.0% Medium
Excavators 25,475 5.3% Medium
Demolition & wrecking 4,478 4.9% Medium
Source: IBISWorld, Inc.
Manufacturing
There are some gold nuggets in manufacturing and, hopefully,
we hit some highlights in our December 2009 article,

particularly in the areas of biotechnology and nanomaterials.
A distilled version of our current research is found in
Table 5.
We are cautiously optimistic for the mature auto industry
given restructuring and pent-up demand. By August 2011,
car sales were up 9.3% from a year earlier, spurred by a
15.5% jump in purchases of small vehicles. Growth for light
trucks was in double digits as well. GM, Ford, and Chrysler
all gained market share, mainly at the expense of Toyota
and Honda. Despite the “cash for clunkers” tax break, the
average age of cars on the road peaked in 2010 at 8.8 years.
So as Americans retire their personal vehicles and replace
their business fleets, mostly with small cars and light trucks,
many banks’ vehicle financing portfolios will put the pedal
to the metal and enjoy some fast growth!
Table 5
Industry
(5-Digit NAICS)
American Manufacturing Still Has Some Life in Its Legs
Revenue 2011 MM$
5-Year Average
Growth 2011-15
Capital Intensity
Biotechnology 92,396 9.6% Medium
Mining, oil & gas
machinery manufacturing
Medical instrument &
supply manufacturing
19,588 4.9% Medium
100,802 4.4% Medium
Tortilla production 3,031 3.6% Medium
Wineries 15,920 5.2% Medium
Vitamin & supplement
manufacturing
Automobile engine &
parts manufacturing
27,855 4.5% High
25,413 3.4% High
Distilleries 6,937 4.1% High
Generic pharmaceutical
manufacturing
Medical device
manufacturing
Wire & cable
manufacturing
48,844 7.3% High
60,243 6.4% Medium
17,827 5.8% Medium
Source: IBISWorld, Inc.
The Information Sector
What a morass! This broad sector is so diverse and is becoming
so integrated with other business lines that the lines of
NAICS definitions are blurring. Nevertheless, the sector’s
divergent prospects merit some attention.
Obviously, this sector is riding the roller coaster of the
digital revolution. Traditional publishing is in decay, content
industries are seeking new distribution channels, and
technologically advanced companies are looking to further
leverage their infrastructure to maximize returns. While
print media get taken for a ride, information gatherers are
finding other thrill-ride channels. Table 6 lists a selection
of the few promising potential growth segments presenting
low risk.
Business Services
The professional and business services sector usually plods
Table 6
Industry
(5-Digit NAICS)
Information’s Sweet Spots
Revenue 2011 MM$
5-Year Average
Growth 2011-15
Capital Intensity
Software publishing 156,317 2.5% Low
Database, storage
& backup software
publishing
Business analytics &
enterprise software
publishing
23,917 4.3% Low
23,917 5.4% Low
Cable networks 16,742 3.0% Low
Cable, Internet &
telephone providers
Wireless telecommunications
carriers
133,359 6.4% Medium
204,437 3.2% High
News syndicates 2,535 2.2% Medium
Internet service providers 43,100 6.0% High
Voice over Internet
protocol
14,116 17.4% High
Search engines 24,485 3.8% Medium
Internet publishing
& broadcasting
along with relatively slow but stable growth. Many industries
in this group are relatively secure and should do nicely
even in a gradual recovery. Business outsourcing, as noted
in our December 2009 RMA Journal article, will support
traditional opportunities including:
• Law firms.
• Accounting, tax, bookkeeping, and payroll services.
• Engineering services.
• Scientific research and development.
• Debt collection agencies.
• Security, burglar, and fire alarm services.
Another group of niche industries, listed in Table 7, is
poised in a growth mode and providing safe, solid returns.
Table 7
Industry
(5-Digit NAICS)
Laboratory testing
services
38,694 6.8% High
Business and Administrative Services on the Rise
Revenue 2011 MM$
5-Year Average
Growth 2011-15
Source: IBISWorld, Inc.
Capital Intensity
16,277 5.2% Medium
Environmental consulting 19,084 9.4% Low
Scientific & economic
consulting
23,693 3.8% Low
Veterinary services 29,317 3.8% Low
Human resources &
benefits administration
56,467 4.2% Low
Correctional facilities 36,242 7.5% Low
Credit bureaus &
rating agencies
9,159 7.8% Medium
Pest control 10,568 5.6% Low
Landscaping services 59,205 3.7% Low
Packaging &
labeling services
8,395 5.1% Medium
Recycling facilities 4,598 7.7% High
Source: IBISWorld, Inc.
The RMA Journal December 2011–January 2012 17

18
Education
We are very cold and introspective on education at the moment.
According to IBISWorld’s July special report, budget
pressures threaten public schools, the testing and educational
support services, colleges and universities, and a whole host
of other education-related industries. On the other hand, one
area that we are relatively sanguine on is trade and technical
schools, which tend to be countercyclical.
Be alert, though, because the risk of lending to the once
high-flying for-profit universities is expected to escalate (for
more on this, see the IBISWorld article on for-profit universities
in the November 2011 RMA Journal 8 ). This industry has
seen its reputation suffer as a result of controversial practices
that accompanied its recent surge in growth.
For-profit universities, also called proprietary colleges,
have a unique place in the education world. Unlike traditional
public and private institutions, these schools are
publicly traded. By investing a huge proportion of dollars
into marketing, for-profit universities have attained massive
enrollment rates. On the basis of revenue and enrollment
numbers alone, the steady growth of these universities
makes the industry enticing for lenders. However, even
though their growth status allows them to rise above nonprofit
schools in terms of profit and revenue, for-profit universities
are coming under increased government regulation.
So beware.
Health Care
Though typically considered a low-risk industry characterized
by low unemployment and smooth growth, health care
finds itself in the murky waters of low returns. Several factors
present challenges, notably the relentlessly rising costs
and lingering doubts over the course and effectiveness of
the Obama administration’s health care initiatives.
The jury is still out on how health care reform will affect
Medicare and Medicaid. In the August 2011 issue of
Commercial Insights, 9 IBISWorld colleague Sophia Snyder
identified the top 10 health care industries that garner the
highest share of revenue from private insurance companies.
Lending to these industries is a definite hedge against uncertainties
in funding Medicare and Medicaid:
“… the Department of Health and Human Services
December 2011–January 2012 The RMA Journal
(HHS) released health insurance exchange rules that
will govern how states set up and run marketplaces
where individuals and small businesses can shop for
health insurance coverage. This new framework will
impact several industries that derive a significant percentage
of revenue from private insurance coverage.
In the next five years, IBISWorld forecasts the top 10
industries to see additional growth in revenue and
operating profit as a result of the new rules…” (see
Table 8).
Table 8
Health Care Revenues
Health Care Industry Revenue % from Private Insurance
Specialist doctors 55.5%
Primary care doctors 55.0%
Podiatrists 51.5%
Dentists 45.0%
Diagnostic and medical laboratories 43.5%
Pharmacies and drug stores 42.0%
Ambulance services 40.0%
Emergency and other outpatient care centers 37.5%
Hospitals 34.5%
Mental health and substance abuse centers 25.0%
Source: IBISWorld, Inc.
Despite the changing face of traditional health-carerelated
businesses, however, risks remain low. After all, no
pain, no gain. Some of the juiciest areas are found in Table 9.
Table 9
Industry
(5-Digit NAICS)
Growth Areas in Health Care
Revenue 2011 MM$
5-Year Average
Growth 2011-15
Capital Intensity
Dentists 109,494 3.5% Medium
Optometrists 13,140 2.3% Low
Physical therapists 27,401 6.9% Low
Podiatrists 4,637 3.6% Low
Alternative health
care providers
Mental health &
substance abuse clinics
Emergency & other
outpatient care centers
Diagnostic & medical
laboratories
11,595 4.3% Low
11,810 3.7% Low
86,660 5.0% Medium
46,759 4.2% Medium
Ambulance services 13,934 5.4% Low
Blood, organ & ambulatory
health services
10,545 7.0% Low
Hospitals 756,952 4.1% Medium
Specialty hospitals 36,193 5.8% Low
Mental retardation
facilities
Mental health &
substance abuse centers
Elderly & disabled
services
20,842 3.0% Low
9,408 2.6% Low
28,137 6.2% Low
Source: IBISWorld, Inc.

For more on this industry, see the additional articles
on ambulatory care, senior care facilities, and hot start-up
industries. 10
Miscellaneous Opportunities
Finally, Table 10 presents a hodgepodge of other promising
industries to be targeted.
Table 10
Industry
(5-Digit NAICS)
Revenue 2011 MM$
Other Smart Picks
5-Year Average
Growth 2011-15
Capital Intensity
Mining services 88,160 4.8% High
Stone mining 13,006 3.6% High
Sand & gravel mining 7,002 4.1% High
Mineral & phosphate
mining
E-commerce &
online auctions
Credit card processing
& money transferring
4,888 1.9% High
186,384 9.4% Medium
43,689 4.3% Medium
Public transportation 38,077 2.3% High
Source: IBISWorld, Inc.
Conclusion: It’s the Best and the Worst of Times
When Charles Dickens wrote A Tale of Two Cities in 1859,
his 60-year perspective on the French Revolution allowed
him to see both the good and the bad in that historical event.
Eighty years removed from the Great Depression and two
years after the Great Recession, we have drawn on the records
of those difficult times to find some potential bright spots
in the current downward adjustment to economic growth.
Most of us thought we would be on a steady, albeit slow,
recovery path by now. The first-half stall in growth is disconcerting,
but corporate profits remain reasonably healthy and
there is plenty of cash in the system. Instability in Europe
is a mild contagion, but it’s not a pandemic.
To be blunt, it’s up to all of us in the private sector to
lead the way, starting with smart lending. This article has
identified roughly 80 industries here worthy of lender
investigation, evaluation, and underwriting. Maybe we
can learn from economic history and back some winners
in this 80-horse recessionary race. v
••
Rick Buczynski, Ph.D., is a senior vice president and chief economist at IBISWorld. He
thanks Dev Strischek of SunTrust Banks, Inc. for his continuing support and guidance.
IBISWorld papers are available from Rick by request. He can be reached at rickb@
ibisworld.com.
Notes
1. Rick Buczynski, “Where Do We Go from Here?” The RMA Journal,
December 2009–January 2010.
2. Anita McGahan and Michael Porter, “How Much Does Industry
Matter, Really?” Strategic Management Journal 18 (1997).
3. Industry value added is also called industry gross product. In
short, it describes the market value of goods and services produced
by an industry minus the cost of goods and services used by the
industry in the production process.
4. Rick Buczynski and Justin Molavi, “$150 Oil? What Would This
Mean for Your Bank?” The RMA Journal, July-August 2011.
5. Justin Molavi and Deborah Stampli, “Alternative Energy: Government
Incentives Ignite Growth,” The RMA Journal, September
2011.
6. Justin Molavi and Rick Buczynski, “The U.S. Is Stepping on the
Gas: Lending Opportunities in Natural Gas and Related Industries,”
The RMA Journal, July–August 2011.
7. IBISWorld Research Staff, “Top 25 Industries Negatively Affected
by Federal Spending Cuts,” IBISWorld Special Report, July 2011.
8. Kevin Culbert and Deborah Stampli, “The Risky Business of For-
Profit Universities,” The RMA Journal, November 2011.
9. Sophia Snyder, “Top 10 Industries to Benefit from Health Insurance
Exchange Rules,” Commercial Insights, American Bankers Association,
August 2011.
10. Sophia Snyder and Deborah Stampli, “Ambulatory Care Offers
Significant Opportunities for Lenders,” The RMA Journal, June 2011;
Mary Jo Taylor, “Lending to Senior Care Facilities,” The RMA Journal,
October 2011; and IBISWorld Research Staff, “5 Hot Start-Up Sectors,”
IBISWorld Special Report, September 2011.
For additional information, consider the RMA course
Analyzing the Commercial Borrower’s Industry, Market,
and Competitive Risk.
The RMA Journal December 2011–January 2012
19