Intro to Forensic Statistics - Promega

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We are not stating that ________ is the only person <strong>to</strong> possess that profile. We are stating that we would not expect <strong>to</strong> find it in a population of N individuals.
Source Attribution • Method is simple • Conservative because N is so large (260,000,000) • If N = 260,000,000, then RMP threshold is 3.9 x 10 -11 • Most of the time the RMP is far less, so confidence is greater than 0.99
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Popstats Unplugged 14 th Internatio
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Why so much attention to statistics
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Statistical Analysis Focus on the q
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So, what are we really after? Quant
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Terminology Genetic marker variant
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POPULATION DATA and Statistics DNA
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Because data are not available for
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Population database Look up how oft
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You can get other population databa
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Anchor principle Analysis of geneti
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The Hardy-Weinberg principle states
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A Hardy-Weinberg Population LARGE P
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Product Rule The frequency of a mul
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D3S1358 = 16, 16 (homozygote) Frequ
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ProfIler Plus Item D3S1358 vWA FGA
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VWA = 15, 17 (heterozygote) Frequen
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Steps - Single Sample Target Profil
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Minimum allele frequency The first
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Minimum allele frequency This metho
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This estimate is strictly driven by
Page 51 and 52: Population Subdivision We've always
Page 53 and 54: Problems created by population subd
Page 55 and 56: National Research Council Report II
Page 58 and 59: Modifying the product rule Use corr
Page 60 and 61: HWE: NRC II, 4.4a: NRC II, 4.10a: [
Page 62 and 63: Theta Values Commonly Employed 0.01
Page 64: This is the default using 0.01 θ
Page 68 and 69: θ = 0.01 θ = 0.03
Page 73 and 74: Ok…so lets look at our other main
Page 75: Here it is using the default of 0.0
Page 79 and 80: θ = 0.01 θ = 0.03
Page 81 and 82: Well, We report them of course! But
Page 83 and 84: So, how do you want to express this
Page 85 and 86: Even Bigger Number Names: 1 x 10 36
Page 87 and 88: To address uniqueness we are back t
Page 89 and 90: Define the Question Estimates of th
Page 91 and 92: Uniqueness / Source Attribution Web
Page 93 and 94: Uniqueness A profile that exists in
Page 95 and 96: Source Attribution • Specify (1-
Page 97 and 98: The standard basis that is used her
Page 99 and 100: So with our PopStats results obtain
Page 101: “To a reasonable degree of scient
Page 105: Random match probability is NOT Cha
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Intro to Forensic Statistics - Promega

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