Intro to Forensic Statistics - Promega

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Forensic Statistics From the ground up…
Why so much attention to statistics? Exclusions don’t require numbers Matches do require statistics Problem of verbal expression of numbers
Page 1: Popstats Unplugged 14 th Internatio
Page 5 and 6: Statistical Analysis Focus on the q
Page 7 and 8: So, what are we really after? Quant
Page 9 and 10: Terminology Genetic marker variant
Page 11 and 12: POPULATION DATA and Statistics DNA
Page 13 and 14: Because data are not available for
Page 15: Population database Look up how oft
Page 19: You can get other population databa
Page 24 and 25: Anchor principle Analysis of geneti
Page 26 and 27: The Hardy-Weinberg principle states
Page 28 and 29: A Hardy-Weinberg Population LARGE P
Page 30 and 31: Product Rule The frequency of a mul
Page 32: D3S1358 = 16, 16 (homozygote) Frequ
Page 35 and 36: ProfIler Plus Item D3S1358 vWA FGA
Page 38 and 39: VWA = 15, 17 (heterozygote) Frequen
Page 40 and 41: Steps - Single Sample Target Profil
Page 42 and 43: Minimum allele frequency The first
Page 44 and 45: Minimum allele frequency This metho
Page 46: This estimate is strictly driven by
Page 51 and 52: Population Subdivision We've always
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Problems created by population subd
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National Research Council Report II
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Modifying the product rule Use corr
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HWE: NRC II, 4.4a: NRC II, 4.10a: [
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Theta Values Commonly Employed 0.01
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This is the default using 0.01 θ
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θ = 0.01 θ = 0.03
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Ok…so lets look at our other main
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Here it is using the default of 0.0
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θ = 0.01 θ = 0.03
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Well, We report them of course! But
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So, how do you want to express this
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Even Bigger Number Names: 1 x 10 36
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To address uniqueness we are back t
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Define the Question Estimates of th
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Uniqueness / Source Attribution Web
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Uniqueness A profile that exists in
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Source Attribution • Specify (1-
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The standard basis that is used her
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So with our PopStats results obtain
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“To a reasonable degree of scient
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Source Attribution • Method is si
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Random match probability is NOT Cha
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Intro to Forensic Statistics - Promega

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