Intro to Forensic Statistics - Promega

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Source attribution Hot topic for statistical debate With the current panel of genetic markers available to forensic testing, it is not uncommon for the reciprocal of the random match probability determined for a genetic profile to exceed the worlds population several fold.
So, how do you want to express this fact in your reports and testimony? What do these numbers mean to you? the prosecutor? the defense? the judge? the jury? This is what really matters!!!
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Popstats Unplugged 14 th Internatio
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Why so much attention to statistics
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Statistical Analysis Focus on the q
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So, what are we really after? Quant
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Terminology Genetic marker variant
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POPULATION DATA and Statistics DNA
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Because data are not available for
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Population database Look up how oft
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You can get other population databa
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Anchor principle Analysis of geneti
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The Hardy-Weinberg principle states
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A Hardy-Weinberg Population LARGE P
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Product Rule The frequency of a mul
Page 32: D3S1358 = 16, 16 (homozygote) Frequ
Page 35 and 36: ProfIler Plus Item D3S1358 vWA FGA
Page 38 and 39: VWA = 15, 17 (heterozygote) Frequen
Page 40 and 41: Steps - Single Sample Target Profil
Page 42 and 43: Minimum allele frequency The first
Page 44 and 45: Minimum allele frequency This metho
Page 46: This estimate is strictly driven by
Page 51 and 52: Population Subdivision We've always
Page 53 and 54: Problems created by population subd
Page 55 and 56: National Research Council Report II
Page 58 and 59: Modifying the product rule Use corr
Page 60 and 61: HWE: NRC II, 4.4a: NRC II, 4.10a: [
Page 62 and 63: Theta Values Commonly Employed 0.01
Page 64: This is the default using 0.01 θ
Page 68 and 69: θ = 0.01 θ = 0.03
Page 73 and 74: Ok…so lets look at our other main
Page 75: Here it is using the default of 0.0
Page 79 and 80: θ = 0.01 θ = 0.03
Page 81: Well, We report them of course! But
Page 85 and 86: Even Bigger Number Names: 1 x 10 36
Page 87 and 88: To address uniqueness we are back t
Page 89 and 90: Define the Question Estimates of th
Page 91 and 92: Uniqueness / Source Attribution Web
Page 93 and 94: Uniqueness A profile that exists in
Page 95 and 96: Source Attribution • Specify (1-
Page 97 and 98: The standard basis that is used her
Page 99 and 100: So with our PopStats results obtain
Page 101 and 102: “To a reasonable degree of scient
Page 103 and 104: Source Attribution • Method is si
Page 105: Random match probability is NOT Cha
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Intro to Forensic Statistics - Promega

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