Intro to Forensic Statistics - Promega

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Let the RMP of a given evidentiary profile X be p x (Calculate using NRC II Report Recommendations) Then (1-p x) N is the probability of not observing the profile in a population of N unrelated individuals This probability should be greater than or equal <strong>to</strong> a 1- α confidence level (1-p x ) N ≥ 1- α p x ≤ 1 - (1- α) 1/N
Source Attribution • Specify (1- α) confidence level of 95% or 99% (uses an α of 0.05 or 0.01, respectively) • Determine RMP threshold <strong>to</strong> assert with a specific degree of confidence that the particular evidence profile is unique with a population of N unrelated individuals What population????
Page 1 and 2:
Popstats Unplugged 14 th Internatio
Page 3 and 4:
Why so much attention to statistics
Page 5 and 6:
Statistical Analysis Focus on the q
Page 7 and 8:
So, what are we really after? Quant
Page 9 and 10:
Terminology Genetic marker variant
Page 11 and 12:
POPULATION DATA and Statistics DNA
Page 13 and 14:
Because data are not available for
Page 15:
Population database Look up how oft
Page 19:
You can get other population databa
Page 24 and 25:
Anchor principle Analysis of geneti
Page 26 and 27:
The Hardy-Weinberg principle states
Page 28 and 29:
A Hardy-Weinberg Population LARGE P
Page 30 and 31:
Product Rule The frequency of a mul
Page 32:
D3S1358 = 16, 16 (homozygote) Frequ
Page 35 and 36:
ProfIler Plus Item D3S1358 vWA FGA
Page 38 and 39:
VWA = 15, 17 (heterozygote) Frequen
Page 40 and 41:
Steps - Single Sample Target Profil
Page 42 and 43:
Minimum allele frequency The first
Page 44 and 45: Minimum allele frequency This metho
Page 46: This estimate is strictly driven by
Page 51 and 52: Population Subdivision We've always
Page 53 and 54: Problems created by population subd
Page 55 and 56: National Research Council Report II
Page 58 and 59: Modifying the product rule Use corr
Page 60 and 61: HWE: NRC II, 4.4a: NRC II, 4.10a: [
Page 62 and 63: Theta Values Commonly Employed 0.01
Page 64: This is the default using 0.01 θ
Page 68 and 69: θ = 0.01 θ = 0.03
Page 73 and 74: Ok…so lets look at our other main
Page 75: Here it is using the default of 0.0
Page 79 and 80: θ = 0.01 θ = 0.03
Page 81 and 82: Well, We report them of course! But
Page 83 and 84: So, how do you want to express this
Page 85 and 86: Even Bigger Number Names: 1 x 10 36
Page 87 and 88: To address uniqueness we are back t
Page 89 and 90: Define the Question Estimates of th
Page 91 and 92: Uniqueness / Source Attribution Web
Page 93: Uniqueness A profile that exists in
Page 97 and 98: The standard basis that is used her
Page 99 and 100: So with our PopStats results obtain
Page 101 and 102: “To a reasonable degree of scient
Page 103 and 104: Source Attribution • Method is si
Page 105: Random match probability is NOT Cha
show all

Intro to Forensic Statistics - Promega

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?