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Pathologies of <strong>in</strong>telligence-policy<br />
relations<br />
Joshua Rovner<br />
From Fix<strong>in</strong>g the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence.<br />
Cornell University Press (2011). Book available <strong>here</strong><br />
1<br />
Excessive harmony<br />
Mutual satisfaction leads to shared tunnel<br />
vision. Intelligence and policy fail to challenge<br />
each others’ assumptions and beliefs,<br />
potentially lead<strong>in</strong>g to disaster.<br />
2<br />
3<br />
Direct manipulation<br />
Policymakers and staff pressure <strong>in</strong>telligence to produce specific<br />
f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs. Alternately, they appo<strong>in</strong>t malleable analysts.<br />
Politicization<br />
Indirect manipulation<br />
Policymakers send tacit signals about acceptable and unacceptable<br />
conclusions. Implicit threats and promises accompany these signals.<br />
Embedded assumptions<br />
Neglect<br />
Ignore the messenger<br />
Policymakers ignore <strong>in</strong>telligence that underm<strong>in</strong>es<br />
their objectives. Instead, they cherry-pick support<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation or ignore <strong>in</strong>telligence altogether.<br />
Self-isolation<br />
Intelligence self-consciously avoids contact<br />
with policymakers.<br />
Widely held strategic assumptions and social norms restrict the<br />
bounds of acceptable analysis.<br />
Intelligence subverts policy<br />
Intelligence estimates publicly underm<strong>in</strong>e policy decisions. Policymakers<br />
may ignore <strong>in</strong>telligence because they fear this k<strong>in</strong>d of subversion.<br />
ethics<br />
Shutterstock<br />
Intelligence parochialism<br />
Analysts tailor f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs for personal or professional ga<strong>in</strong>. Depend<strong>in</strong>g<br />
on the analyst’s goals, this can lead to “<strong>in</strong>telligence to<br />
please” or subversion.<br />
Bureaucratic parochialism<br />
Intelligence agencies tailor f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs to support their organizational<br />
<strong>in</strong>terests.<br />
Partisan <strong>in</strong>telligence<br />
Political parties use <strong>in</strong>telligence issues for partisan ga<strong>in</strong>, often by<br />
accus<strong>in</strong>g rivals of mismanag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>telligence.<br />
Intelligence as scapegoat<br />
Policymakers deride <strong>in</strong>telligence when it does not support policy<br />
decisions. In addition, <strong>in</strong>telligence is blamed for failure to predict<br />
events like surprise attacks.<br />
October 2012 <strong>Foreknowledge</strong> 9