Multi Indocitra, Tbk - PT. PEFINDO

Multi Indocitra, Tbk
Secondary Report
Historical Chart
JCI
4.400
4.200
4.000
3.800
3.600
3.400
3.200
Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
JCI MICE
Stock Information
Contact:
Equity & Index Valuation Division
Phone: (6221) 7278 2380
info-equityindexvaluation@pefindo.co.id
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MICE
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Ticker code MICE
Market price as of October 17 th 2012 410
Market price – 52 week high 470
Market price – 52 week low 305
Market cap – 52 week high (bn) 426
Market cap – 52 week low (bn) 153
Stock Valuation Last Current
High 405 460
Low 360 410
Market Value Added & Market Risk
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
MVA Market Risk
Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division
Shareholders
Rp
1,6
1,4
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
(%)
PT Buana Graha Utama 60.44
Haiyanto 7.98
Surono Subekti 6.41
Public (each below 5% ownership) 25.18
Ready to Pursue Stronger Growth
Equity Valuation
October 18 th , 2012
Target Price
Low High
410 460
Baby Care
PT Multi Indocitra Tbk (MICE) was established on January 11 th , 1990 with
the objective of distributing health care products and accessories for
infants, expectant & lactating mother, along with skin care products.
MICE’s head office is located at Green Central City Commercial, West
Jakarta with two branch offices in Surabaya and Medan. The products are
manufactured in a modern factory located in Cikande, Banten. The
products are divided into nine types namely plastic feeding bottle, silicon
nipples, moistened baby-wipes, baby accessories, baby toiletries, youth
skin care, accessories for expectant & lactating mother, baby skin care
and Compact Fluorescent Lamp (CFL) under the brand of HORI. In the
last two years, HORI has been showing remarkable result with sales
volume of more than 2.5 million units. To fulfill the consumer demand,
MICE distribute its products to more than 15,000 outlets in modern
market and 21,000 outlets in general retail trade across Indonesia. By
considering above factors, we believe that MICE is ready to pursue
stronger revenue growth in the years ahead.
Page 1 of 11

INVESTMENT PARAMETERS
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Target Price Adjustment
Multi Indocitra, Tbk
We made some adjustments to our previous forecast and adjust MICE’s Target
Price to the range of Rp 410 - Rp 460 per share, based on the following
considerations:
Although MICE’s sales performance in 2011 was slightly lower than our
previous projection, but MICE’s profitability achievement was above ours.
During 2011, MICE succeeded to book operating and net profit as much as
Rp 53 billion and Rp 36 billion, respectively. It was higher by 3% and 16%
than our projection, mainly due to MICE’s efficiency in COGS which further
cascaded the bottom line performance.
Up to 1H12, MICE succeeded to book encouraging result with 18% YoY of
revenue growth. It positively affects the performance of profitability, namely
gross, operating and net profit which grew by 12% YoY, 2% YoY and 6%,
respectively. Positive result in 1H12 was mainly bolstered by the sales of
baby care products, contribution of HORI as well as better efficiency in
operational expense. And in 2012, we are confident that MICE could generate
Rp 532 billion of revenue considering both baby care and lamp demand
continues to grow.
Since its launching in 2010, HORI has been posting magnificent performance.
In 2011, MICE successfully sold as many as 2.5 million units of lamp or
equivalent to Rp 43 billion. Considering HORI products are used by
household, in which appears as the largest customer of PLN and expected to
continue growing each year, plus more than 32 HORI outlets in domestic, we
believe HORI’s sales volume could hit 3.6 million units, or around Rp 65
billion in 2012.
Assumption of risk free rate, equity premium and beta reach 5.8%, 6.3% and
1.4x, respectively.
Keep Success in Maintaining its Predicate as Market Leader
In general, MICE classifies its products into two big categories, among others:
baby acessories and lamp. Of those products, the major contribution to MICE’s
total revenue comes from baby accessories especially in plastic feeding bottle
and silicon nipples. According to recent data, the sales value of plastic feeding
bottle and silicon nipples with Pigeon brand are taking account of 65% in
national level. During 2008 – 2011 periods, MICE’s revenue from plastic feeding
bottle and silicon nipples grew at 19% CAGR. Considering the GDP of Indonesian
that continues to soar, in which can trigger stronger purchasing power and
augmented with MICE’s integrated marketing activities to enlarge Pigeon brand
equity, we believe the revenue from plastic feeding bottle and silicon nipples will
climb by 14% YoY or reach Rp 206 billion in 2012.
Business Prospects
We are positive to view MICE’s business prospect in the years ahead based on
these consideration: Indonesian economy that managed to grow by 6.4% YoY in
1H12 and estimated to reach 6.2% YoY by the end of 2012, stable growth of
birthrate, huge number of young family generation, sell its products to domestic
as well as strong Pigeon brand as market leader in baby care products.
Meanwhile, we view that the other MICE’s product line, CFL (HORI), also looks
prospective underpinned by CFL market which is predicted to climb by 23% YoY
or reach 320 million units in 2012. By considering above factors and augmented
with MICE’s vigorous promotion, we believe MICE will be able to record Rp 532
billion of revenue this year, or reflecting 14% YoY growth and 12% CAGR in
2011 – 2015 periods.
October 18 th , 2012 Page 2 of 11

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Table 1: Performance Summary
Multi Indocitra, Tbk
2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P
Revenue (Rp bn) 340 423 465 532 600
Pre-tax Profit (Rp bn) 49 47 50 60 67
Net Profit (Rp bn) 35 34 36 46 50
EPS (Rp) 58 56 61 76 83
EPS Growth (%) 45 (3) 8 26 9
P/E (x) 4.5 7.2 6.0 5.4* 4.9*
PBV (x) 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7* 0 .7*
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk ., Pefindo Equity and Index Valuation Division Estimates
Notes: * Based on Share Price as of October 17 th , 2012 – Rp 410/share
October 18 th , 2012 Page 3 of 11

GROWTH VALUE MAP
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Multi Indocitra, Tbk
Growth-Value Map provides overview of market expectations for the companies
listed on IDX. Current Performance (“CP”) metric, running along the horizontal
axis, is a portion of current stock market value that can be linked to the
perpetuity of current company’s performance in profitability. Growth Expectations
(“GE”) metric, plotted on the vertical axis, is the difference between current stock
market value and the value of current performance. Both metrics are normalized
by the company’s book value.
Growth-Value Map divides companies into four clusters, they are:
Excellent Value Managers (“Q-1”)
Market expects companies in Q-1 to surpass their benchmark in
profitability and growth.
Expectation Builders (“Q-2”)
Market has relatively low expectations of profitability from companies in Q-
2 in the short term, but has growth expectations exceed the benchmark.
Traditionalists (“Q-3”)
Market has low growth expectations of companies in the Q-3, although
they showed a good profitability in the short term.
Asset-loaded Value Managers (“Q-4”)
Market has low expectations in terms of profitability and growth for
companies in Q-4.
Growth Expectations
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Q-2
Q-4
Figure 1: Growth-Value Map of MICE
0 1 2 3 4
Current Performance (CP)
October 18 th 2012 Page 4 of 11
MICE
Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division
Based on financial statement and market value, MICE is lying in Asset Loaded
Manager cluster. Market has relatively low expectation to MICE in term of
profitability and growth. However, we believe MICE’s strategic plan to boost
Pigeon brand and HORI brand by opening new plenty outlets across Indonesia will
lift its revenue up. Also, it may still need a better investor relation effort to make
investors realize the company profitability potentials. MICE has the opportunity to
move to Excellent Value Managers’ cluster by way of strengthening their
internal growth capabilities and doing actions to drive market perceptions of their
economic success.
Q-1
Q-3

BUSINESS INFORMATION
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Multi Indocitra, Tbk
The Only Company in this Industry Listed in IDX
Since 2005, MICE has been listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This action
reflects MICE’s seriousness in developing its business and introducing its identity
to public. Among many local and foreign players in this industry, MICE is the only
listed company that engage in baby care products. Through its long experience
and underpinned by Pigeon brand, currently MICE takes dominant position in
baby care industry with around 65% market share.
Improving Economic Condition Benefits MICE’s Business
Indonesia’s economic growth which attained 6.4% YoY in 1H12 has attracted
many foreign companies to invest in domestic. We estimate that the growth of
Indonesian economy may reach 6.2% YoY in 2012. Along with manageable
inflation of 4.53% YoY in 1H12, low benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) of 5.75%,
and improving GDP per capita which may break USD 4,000 level in 2012, we
believe that MICE’s business, as baby care producer, will remain prospective.
Supported by other factors namely huge number of young family generation,
stable growth of birthrate, strong Pigeon brand equity as well as strong demand
of CFL, we eye that MICE could enjoy satisfactory revenue growth in the years
ahead.
Table 2: Indonesia’s Economic Indicators, 2008 – 1H12
Indicators Unit 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H12
GDP Growth % YoY 6.1 4.5 6.1 6.5 6.4
Inflation Rate % YoY 11.06 2.78 6.98 3.79 4.53
Mid-Exchange Rate Rp/USD 9,136 9,680 10,398 8,779 9,480
BI Rate % 9.25 6.50 6.50 6.00 5.75
GDP per Capita USD 2,245 2,350 3,010 3,543
Third Party Funds Rp tn 1,682 1,913 2,304 2,736 2,867
Foreign Exchange Reserves USD bn 52
66
96 110 107
Source: Bank Indonesia, Central Bureau of Statistic, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division
Providing High-Quality Products
One important factor that makes MICE can retain the biggest market share in its
industry is due to the quality of its products. The manufacturing of Pigeon
products, which is carried out by the subsidiary and affiliated company have been
carefully checked for its quality to make sure that the quality standard which is
stipulated by Pigeon Corporation of Japan are followed. PT. Multielok Cosmetics
and PT. Pigeon Indonesia have obtained some certifications, namely:
PT. Multielok Cosmetics: Certification AS/NZS ISO 9001:2000 from SAI Global
Limited Australia, Certification for Good Manufacturing Process (GMP) from the
Indonesian Medicines and Food Supervisory Body
PT. Pigeon Indonesia: Certification AS/NZS ISO 9001:2000 from SAI Global
Limited Australia.
Wide Distribution Coverage to Boost Sales
We believe MICE’s effort to promote their products across Indonesia will be
running smoothly. Besides doing partnership with the hospitals in remote area to
introduce Pigeon, MICE also distribute the products in wide coverage. Currently,
MICE’s distribution channel is supported by 15,500 outlets in modern market and
21,000 outlets in general retail trade. Such condition positively affects MICE’s
revenue as it grew by 15% CAGR during 2008 – 2011 periods. This year, MICE
plans to spend Rp 70 billion for promotion, add new machines as well as
distribution area. And we expect such investment could lead MICE’s revenue to
climb by 14% YoY to reach Rp 532 billion in 2012.
October 18 th , 2012 Page 5 of 11

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Figure 2: MICE’s Distribution Coverage
Modern market: 15.500 outlet General trade: 21.000 outlet
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk., Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division
Multi Indocitra, Tbk
Jabodetabek Remains Fascinating Market
In the last three years period, MICE’s revenue successfully soared by 17% CAGR.
It continued in 1H12, in which MICE recorded 18% YoY revenue growth or
equivalent to Rp 265 billion. From that figure, Jabodetabek takes a major
contribution with 39% to MICE’s total revenue. It is the followed by Sumatera of
14%, East Java of 13%, Central Java of 10%, West Java of 9%, Sulawesi of 7%,
Kalimantan and Bali of 5% and 3%. As the business that relies on people
purchasing power, we eye that MICE’s market positioning in Jabodetabek is
appropriate since the economic growth in Jabodetabek continues to rise. As of
1H12, the economic growth in that region was cumulatively 6.6% YoY.
Figure 3: MICE’s Sales by Area
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk., Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division
October 18 th , 2012 Page 6 of 11

FINANCE
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Multi Indocitra, Tbk
Operating and Net Profit are above Expectation
During 2011, MICE’s revenue growth soared by 10% YoY to reach Rp 465 billion
compared to the same period last year, slightly lower than our previous
projection which was Rp 502 billion. It was mainly due to the decreasing sales in
youth skin care products and export. However, from the profitability side such as
operating and net profit, MICE’s achievement was above our projection at the
period. MICE’s actual operating and net profit were Rp 53 billion and Rp 36
billion, while ours were Rp 52 billion and Rp 31 billion.
Figure 4: MICE’s Projection vs Actual Performance
600 502
400
200
0
(in Rp billion)
October 18 th , 2012 Page 7 of 11
465
53 53 31 36
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division
Positive Result in 1H12
MICE succeeded to book great performance in 1H12 in term of revenue and
profitability such as gross, operating and net profit growth compared to 1H11
periods. It grew by 18% YoY, 12% YoY, 2% YoY and 6% YoY, respectively. We
view that baby care product is still the main contributor to MICE’s total revenue
at the period. It is followed by export, CFL (HORI) and youth skin care. To boost
higher revenue growth, MICE has allocated around of Rp 70 billion for promotion,
add new machines as well distribution channel. Considering robust demand of
baby care products due to stable growth of birthrate and augmented with
increasing people purchasing power in domestic, we believe MICE will be able to
generate as much as Rp 532 billion in 2012, or reflecting 14% YoY of growth.
Faster Inventory Turnover Leads Better Cash Conversion Cycle
MICE managed to book better inventory turnover, in which indicate its success in
converting inventory to sales. In 1H12, MICE’s inventory turnover reached 127
days, better than the same period last year which was 143 days. After
considering the turnover of trade receivable and trade payable, MICE’s cash
conversion cycle was getting better with 165 days, compared to 1H11 period
which as long as 193 days.
200
150
100
Figure 5: MICE’s Inventory Turnover and Cash
Conversion Cycle
50
0
143
193
127
1H11 1H12
Inventory Turnover Cash Conversion Cycle
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk., Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division
165
2011
(in days)

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Multi Indocitra, Tbk
Remarkable Performance of HORI
Besides selling baby care products, MICE also provide CFL under the brand of
HORI. The existence of HORI is considered a new player in national lamp
industry. However, surprisingly, in the first year of its performance in 2010, HORI
successfully generated Rp 33 billion of revenue. Later in 2011, HORI’s revenue
soared by 31% YoY to reach Rp 43 billion, or in term of sales volume reached 2.5
million units. Such condition reflects MICE’s ability to diversify its business line.
For 2012, we estimate HORI’s sales volume could grow by 44% YoY to reach 3.6
million units or around Rp 65 billion, citing strong demand of CFL as a result of
growing property in Indonesia.
Figure 6: HORI’s Revenue and CFL Consumption
HORI’s Revenue
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk and Various Source Processed by Pefindo Equity Research Division
CFL Consumption
October 18 th , 2012 Page 8 of 11
in million units
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
200
260
320
2010 2011 2012P
MICE Business Prospect
We are positive to view MICE’s business prospect in the years ahead based on
these consideration: Indonesian economy managed to grow by 6.4% YoY in 1H12
and estimated to reach 6.2% YoY by the end of 2012, stable growth of birthdate,
huge number of young family generation, major portion of domestic sales as well
as strong Pigeon brand as market leader in baby care products. Meanwhile, we
view that the other MICE’s product line, CFL (HORI), also looks prospective
underpinned by CFL market which is predicted to climb by 23% YoY or reach 320
million units in 2012. By considering above factors and augmented with MICE’s
vigorous promotion, we believe MICE will be able to record Rp 532 billion of
revenue in 2012, or reflecting 14% YoY growth and 12% CAGR in 2011 – 2015
periods.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Figure 7: MICE’s Revenue Estimation
465
532
600
665
(in Rp billion)
737
2011 2012P 2013P 2014P 2015P
MICE's Revenue
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk., Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates

TARGET PRICE
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VALUATION
Methodology
Multi Indocitra, Tbk
We apply Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method as the main valuation
approach considering the income growth is a value driver in MICE instead of
asset growth.
We do not combine DCF method with Guideline Company Method (GCM) as
there are no similar companies eligible to be compared with MICE in the IDX.
This valuation is based on 100% MICE’s shares price as of October 17 th ,
2012, using MICE’s financial report as of June 30 th , 2012 for our fundamental
analysis.
Value Estimation
We use Cost of Capital of 12.6% and Cost of Equity of 14.3% based on the
following assumption:
Table 3: Assumption
Risk free rate [%]* 5.8
Risk premium [%]* 6.3
Beta [x]* 1.4
Cost of Equity [%] 14.3
Marginal tax rate [%] 25.0
Debt to Equity Ratio [x] 0.23
WACC [%] 12.6
Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates
Notes: *As of October 17 th , 2012
The target price for 12 months based on Valuation as of October 17 th , 2012
using DCF method with an assumption of 12.6% discount rate is ranging
between Rp 410 to Rp 460 per share.
Table 4: Summary of DCF Method Valuation
Conservative Moderate Aggressive
PV of Free Cash Flows [Rp bn] 60 63 66
PV Terminal Value [Rp bn] 224 238 250
Non-Operating Assets- [Rp bn] 33 33 33
Net Debt [Rp bn] (74) (74) (74)
Total Equity Value [Rp bn] 245 260 275
Number of Share [mn shares] 600 600 600
Fair Value per Share [Rp] 410 435 460
Source: Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates
October 18 th , 2012 Page 9 of 11

Table 5: Income Statement
Income Statement
(in Rp billion)
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2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P
Sales 340 423 465 532 600
COGS (162) (194) (203) (232) (260)
Gross Profit 178 230 262 300 339
Operating Expense (134) (182) (209) (238) (269)
Operating Profit 44 48 53 62 70
Other Income (Charges) 5 (0.3) (3) (2) (3)
Pre-tax Profit 49 47 50 60 67
Tax (14) (13) (14) (14) (17)
Net Profit 35 34 36 46 50
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk., Pefindo Equity and Index Valuation Division Estimates
Table 6: Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet
(in Rp billion)
Assets
Current Assets
2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P
Cash & cash equivalents 59 44 36 49 29
Receivables 57 97 105 120 128
Inventory 58 71 81 93 104
Other Assets 62 17 18 20 17
Total Current Assets 236 229 240 282 278
Fixed Assets 41 112 163 196 239
Other Assets 14 31 30 34 34
Total Assets 291 372 433 512 551
Liabilities
Trade liabilities 14 9 19 22 24
Short-term liabilities 4 30 34 54 62
Other Short-term
liabilities
15 29 36 47 55
Long-term liabilities 6 18 38 50 56
Total Liabilities 39 86 127 173 197
Total Equity 252 286 306 339 354
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk., Pefindo Equity and Index Valuation Division Estimates
Figure 8: Historical P/E and P/BV
Multi Indocitra, Tbk
October 18 th , 2012 Page 10 of 11
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
2009 2010 2011
Figure 9: Historical ROA, ROE and TAT
16
14
12
10
08
06
04
02
00
2009 2010 2011
Table 7: Key Ratio
01
01
01
01
01
00
00
00
00
00
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
P/E
P/BV
Ratio 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P
Growth (%)
ROA
Sales 10.6 24.3 9.9 14.4 12.6
Operating Profit 4.3 7.4 12.0 16.9 12.6
EBITDA 0.7 8.0 9.7 6.4 14.9
Net Profit 16.6 (2.8) 7.5 25.5 9.4
Profitability (%)
Gross Margin 52.3 54.2 56.3 56.4 56.6
Operating Margin
ROE
TAT
13.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.7
EBITDA Margin 16.2 14.1 14.0 13.0 13.3
Net Margin 10.2 8.0 7.8 8.6 8.3
ROA 12.0 9.1 8.4 8.9 9.1
ROE 13.8 11.8 11.9 13.5 14.1
Solvability (X)
Debt to Equity 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Debt to Asset 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
Liquidity (X)
Current Ratio 7.2 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.0
Quick Ratio 3.7 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.1
Source: PT Multi Indocitra Tbk., Pefindo Equity and Index Valuation Division Estimates

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DISCLAIMER
Multi Indocitra, Tbk
This report was prepared based on the trusted and reliable sources. Nevertheless, we do not
guarantee its completeness, accuracy and adequacy. Therefore we do not responsible of any
investment decision making based on this report. As for any assumptions, opinions and
predictions were solely our internal judgments as per reporting date, and those judgments are
subject to change without further notice.
We do not responsible for mistake and negligence occurred by using this report. Last
performance could not always be used as reference for future outcome. This report is not an
offering recommendation, purchase or holds particular shares. This report might not be suitable
for some investors. All opinion in this report has been presented fairly as per issuing date with
good intentions; however it could be change at any time without further notice. The price, value
or income from each share of the Company stated in this report might lower than the investor
expectation and investor might obtain lower return than the invested amount. Investment is
defined as the probable income that will be received in the future; nonetheless such return may
possibly fluctuate. As for the Company which its share is denominated other than Rupiah, the
foreign exchange fluctuation may reduce the value, price or investor investment return. This
report does not contain any information for tax consideration in investment decision making.
The share price target in this report is a fundamental value, not a fair market value nor a
transaction price reference required by the regulations.
The share price target issued by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division is not a
recommendation to buy, sell or hold particular shares and it could not be considered as an
investment advice from Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division as its scope of service to, or
in relation to some parties, including listed companies, financial advisor, broker, investment
bank, financial institution and intermediary, in correlation with receiving rewards or any other
benefits from that parties.
This report is not intended for particular investor and cannot be used as part of investment
objective on particular shares and neither an investment recommendation on particular shares
or an investment strategy. We strongly recommended investor to consider the suitable situation
and condition at first before making decision in relation with the figure in this report. If it is
necessary, kindly contact your financial advisor.
PEFINDO keeps the activities of Equity Valuation separate from Ratings to preserve
independence and objectivity of its analytical processes and products. PEFINDO has established
policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain no n-public information
received in connection with each analytical process. The entire process, methodology and the
database used in the preparation of the Reference Share Price Target Report as a whole is
different from the processes, methodologies and databases used PEFINDO in doing the rating.
This report was prepared and composed by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division with the
objective to enhance shares price transparency of listed companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
This report is also free of other party’s influence, pressure or force either from IDX or the listed company
which reviewed by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division. Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation
Division will earn reward amounting to Rp 20 mn each from IDX and the reviewed company for issuing
report twice per year. For further information, please visit our website at http://www.pefindo.com
This report is prepared and composed by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division. In
Indonesia, this report is published in our website and in IDX website .
October 18 th , 2012 Page 11 of 11