Crop Prospects Food Situation

of eastern Tigray and Amhara, and the pastoral areas of Afar
in Ethiopia. As of mid-January 2013, according to UNHCR and
OCHA, about 1.1 million refugees are hosted in camps in Kenya,
Ethiopia and South Sudan, mainly from Somalia and the Sudan,
and have precarious access to basic necessities of food, shelter,
water and sanitation.
Southern Africa
Flooding in eastern parts of the subregion in
January causes localized crop damage
Harvesting of the 2012/13 cereal crops is expected to commence
in April. Below normal precipitation was recorded during
much of first three months of the cropping season (October-
December) that necessitated replantings in some southeastern
areas. However, a period of intense rainfall ensued in January
and early February alleviating moisture deficits but also
causing flooding. In the most affected country, Mozambique,
an estimated 166 000 hectares of crops were lost to floods,
mostly in the southern provinces, as well as some in the central
Zambezi Province. Although the area represents a comparatively
small size at the national level, localised production losses will
negatively affect food supplies in 2013. Rains subsided from
mid-February, bringing relief to the flooded areas, although
heavy rains in central provinces of Mozambique have increased
the risk of flooding in these parts. The abundant rains also
caused some flood damage and water-logging in areas of
Botswana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, but the negative
impact on crops was limited. In addition, the passing of Cyclone
Felleng inflicted comparatively minor damage in eastern districts
of Madagascar during January. A second Cyclone, Hurana,
in February caused damage in southwestern areas, displacing
population and flooding cropped fields. The potential for further
flooding remains in eastern parts of the subregion until the end
of the cyclone season in April 2013.
In contrast to eastern regions, water deficits have developed
across much of Namibia, negatively impacting on both pasture
Table 12. Southern Africa cereal production
(million tonnes)
2010 2011
Crop Prospects and Food Situation
Wheat Coarse grains Rice (paddy) Total cereals
2012
estim. 2010 2011
2012
estim. 2010 2011
2012
estim. 2010 2011
2012
estim.
Change:
2012/2011 (%)
Southern Africa 1.7 2.3 2.3 26.4 25.0 24.3 5.2 4.8 4.5 33.3 32.1 31.0 -3.2
- excl. South Africa 0.3 0.3 0.3 12.5 13.5 11.3 5.2 4.8 4.5 17.9 18.6 16.1 -13.2
Madagascar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.8 4.3 4.0 5.2 4.7 4.4 -7.0
Malawi 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 4.0 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.6 4.1 3.8 -7.1
Mozambique 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.8 2.9 2.4 -18.8
South Africa 1.4 2.0 1.9 13.9 11.5 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.3 13.5 14.9 10.5
Zambia 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.9 3.1 2.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.4 3.2 -5.0
Zimbabwe 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.7 1.1 -32.0
Note: Totals and percentage change computed from unrounded data.
conditions and crop development. Furthermore, at the end of
2012, an outbreak of army worms across the subregion caused
some damage to cereal crops, affecting parts of Botswana,
Namibia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Although
the outbreak was widespread, interventions by governments and
partner institutions, including pesticide spraying and distribution
of early maturing seeds to affected households, have contained
further infestations and limited the damage. In Madagascar,
locusts are threatening crop prospects in southern and western
parts. The Government declared a state of emergency in
November 2012, as a result of the infestation, and measures have
been taken to contain the outbreak.
Overall yields expected to increase, except in
areas affected by floods and dry spells
In most countries of the subregion, official estimates of the area
planted for the 2012/13 crop have not yet been released. By contrast,
in South Africa, the main producer in the subregion, early official
estimates point to a 3 percent expansion in maize plantings to about
2.78 million hectares over last season’s level. The increase reflects
farmers’ positive reaction to higher maize prices in 2012. If favourable
weather conditions persist until harvesting, a crop of about 12.4
million tonnes in the commercial sector is tentatively forecast; while
about 600 000 tonnes is expected from the subsistence sector. In the
remaining countries of Southern Africa, despite some losses from
dry spells, floods and army worms, overall, current conditions point
to satisfactory crop development, particularly in the large producing
areas. Assuming continued favourable weather through to end of
the cropping season in March-June, higher yields than the previous
season are anticipated, and an improved output over last season’s
reduced harvest is expected. However, following 2012’s bumper
harvest, cereal production in Namibia is expected to decrease as
a result of the poorly distributed rains in the 2012/13 cropping
season. While the floods in southern and central areas of
Mozambique, as well as in Madagascar, are expected to depress
production in localised areas.
No. 1 n March 2013 17