Crop Prospects Food Situation

Figure 11. Retail wheat and wheat flour prices in
Belarus, Russian Federation and Republic of Moldova
USD/kg
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
J
F M A
Belarus (wheat flour, national average)
Rep. of Moldova (wheat, Chisinau)
Russian Federation (wheat flour, national average)
M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
2011 2012
2013
Sources: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus; ACSA, Rep. of
Moldova; Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation.
respectively. In the Russian Federation, where state reserves have
been released in the previous months to limit domestic price
increases, the Government is now considering the possibility
to eliminate the current 5 percent duty on wheat imports. In
January, in Belarus the retail prices on wheat flour and bread
were 45 and 69 percent higher respectively than a year earlier
reflecting liberalization of the country’s domestic price policy as
well as international price trend. By contrast, due to state price
regulation and interventions, wheat flour retail prices in Moldova
have increased only slightly from a year earlier (by 7 percent in
Chisinau and by 9 percent in Causeni).
Oceania
Australia 2012 winter grain crop sharply down
from past two bumper years
The recently completed 2012 wheat harvest in Australia, which
accounts for the bulk of the annual grain production, is officially
estimated at 22 million tonnes, about 26 percent down from
the bumper 2011 crop, while barley production is estimated to
have fallen by 15 percent to 7.1 million tonnes. Severe drought in
Western Australia and some eastern and southeastern growing
regions impacted negatively on yields. The outlook for the 2013
summer cereals (mainly sorghum and maize) has deteriorated
Crop Prospects and Food Situation
with the heat-wave conditions in January and generally belowaverage
rainfall across the major summer cropping regions.
Sorghum production is forecast to decrease by 23 percent to
1.7 million tonnes. Early indications for the 2013 wheat crop,
which will be planted from April to June, are uncertain: given the
reduction in 2012 production and strong price prospects, farmers
are expected to respond by increasing plantings. However,
with the summer heat wave reducing soil moisture reserves in
some major producing areas, much will depend on the level of
precipitation before and during the planting period.
No. 1 n March 2013 29