Crop Prospects Food Situation

Table 14. Far East cereal production and anticipated trade in 2012/13 1
(thousand tonnes)
Avg 5-yrs
(2007/08 to
2011/12) 2011/12 2012/13
average. In Sri Lanka, floods during November-December in the
North Western, Northern, Eastern and Uva provinces are forecast
to reduce the main season (Maha) paddy crop to 2.6-2.8 million
tonnes, compared to the 3 million tonnes harvested in 2012.
The 2012 aggregate regional cereal harvest
estimated at a record level
Harvesting of the 2012 main season cereal crops, mostly paddy
and coarse grains, was completed towards the end of the year
in most countries. With most official estimates now available,
FAO puts the subregion’s 2012 aggregate production of cereals
at a record level of 1 214 million tonnes (rice in paddy terms) or
some 3 percent up from the previous year’s record output, mainly
reflecting larger crops in China (+22 million tonnes) and Indonesia
2012/13 over
2011/12
(%)
2012/13 over
5-yr avg
(%)
Cereals - Exports 33 169 37 185 43 063 15.8 29.8
Cereals - Imports 82 889 95 900 89 112 -7.1 7.5
Cereals - Production 902 494 961 533 994 439 3.4 10.2
Rice-millled - Exports 25 676 29 265 28 575 -2.4 11.3
Rice-millled - Imports 9 206 11 763 10 049 -14.6 9.2
Rice-millled - Production 414 972 435 885 440 005 0.9 6.0
Wheat - Exports 2 646 2 427 9 610 296.0 263.2
Wheat - Imports 31 425 36 679 35 333 -3.7 12.4
Wheat - Production 221 414 232 758 244 027 4.8 10.2
1 Marketing year July/June for most countries. Rice trade figures are for the second year shown.
Figure 6. Rice retail prices in selected Far East
countries
USD/kg
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Indonesia,(medium quality)
national average
Philippines, (RMR)
national average
India
Delhi
Viet Nam, (25% broken milled)
Dong Thap
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
2011
2012
2013
Sources: Ministry of Trade, Indonesia; Ministry of Consumer Affairs, India; Bureau of
Agriculture Statistics, Philippines; Agroinfo, Viet Nam.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation
(+4.5 million tonnes). Similarly, significant
gains in national total cereal production
are recorded in Bangladesh, Cambodia,
Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and
Viet Nam, as a result of larger plantings
and higher yields prompted by strong
prices, subsidized inputs and generally
favourable weather. On the other hand
poor harvests were gathered due to
adverse weather conditions in Nepal and
reduced plantings in Republic of Korea.
In other countries, such as Myanmar and
Pakistan, the total cereal production is
estimated to remain more or less similar to
that of the previous year. In India, record
wheat harvest offset the dry spell affected paddy output and the
total cereal production is estimated to remain close to the record
level of 2011.
Cereal exports expected to reach record
level, while imports to decrease in 2012/13 in
response to successive good harvests
In general, the Far East subregion is a net exporter of rice and
net importer of wheat. Early forecast for the 2012/13 marketing
year indicate an increase in the subregional cereal exports by
5.9 million tonnes or 16 percent from the previous year, while
the aggregate cereal imports to decrease by 6.8 million tonnes or
7 percent below the 2011/12 level. Much of the increase is in the
form of wheat exports, largely on account of bumper harvests in
Figure 7. Wheat and wheat flour retail prices in
selected Far East countries
USD/kg
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
China (wheat flour)
Average of main 50 cities
Bangladesh (wheat flour)
Dhaka
India (wheat)
Delhi
Pakistan (wheat)
Lahore
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
2011
2012 2013
Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; Ministry of Consumer Affairs, India;
Management Information System and Monitoring, Bangladesh; National Bureau of
Statistics of China.
No. 1 n March 2013 21