Crop Prospects Food Situation

of urgent food and livelihood
assistance is estimated at about 4
million. As of mid-February 2013,
the total number of registered
refugees from the Syrian Arab
Republic and individuals awaiting
registration in Jordan, Lebanon,
Turkey, Iraq and Egypt was
close to 863 000. Although
WFP continues providing food
assistance to vulnerable Syrian
populations in Jordan, Lebanon,
Iraq, and Turkey, resources in host
communities remain under strain.
CIS in Asia 1
Uncertain prospects for the 2013 winter cereal
crops
Planting of the 2013 winter crops has been completed
satisfactorily. The total area under cereals is slightly above that
of last year mainly reflecting larger plantings in Azerbaijan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Official reports indicate that dormant
winter wheat crops are in satisfactory condition; but more rains
would be needed in coming weeks for further development
of the crops. However, the subregion’s aggregate 2013 cereal
production will depend on the outcome in Kazakhstan, the
main producer, where the bulk of the crop will be sown only in
spring. Assuming normal weather conditions, the potential cereal
production of Kazakhstan is forecast around 20 million tonnes
including 15 million tonnes of wheat.
Significant decline in 2012 cereal production
Table 16. CIS in Asia cereal production
(million tonnes)
2010 2011
The results of the 2012 cereal harvest vary from country to
country, though at subregional level it has dropped significantly
by comparison with the previous years. The 2012 aggregate cereal
output is estimated at 27.8 million tonnes, of which some 22
million tonnes is wheat. This figure is 32 and 16 percent below the
2011 record level and the previous five-year average, respectively.
The decline is mainly attributed to a sharp contraction of
production in Kazakhstan, due to a severe drought experienced
during summer months. As a result, exports of wheat in the
2012/13 marketing year (July/June) are expected to decline, but
the reduction will be partially offset, by large carryover stocks. In
Kyrgyzstan, 2012 wheat production was affected by adverse
weather during the season and latest estimates indicate a decline
of 14 percent in cereal production to 1.3 million tonnes, which
is well below average. By contrast, normal cropping conditions
1Georgia is no longer a member of CIS but its inclusion in this group is maintained for the time
being.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation
Wheat Coarse grains Total cereals 1
2012
estim. 2010 2011
and government production support measures in Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Georgia and, in particular, Uzbekistan, resulted
in higher cereal productions in 2012. In Tajikistan and
Turkmenistan, 2012 cereal outputs were virtually unchanged
from the previous year and close to the last five-year average.
Prices of wheat flour remain firm at near record
levels
In most wheat import dependent countries of the subregion,
prices of wheat flour have increased for the last three months
and remain at near record levels mirroring price patterns in the
export markets of the subregion. In Kyrgyzstan prices of wheat
flour remained at high levels in January, reflecting the country’s
reduced wheat production and trends in the neighbouring
Figure 8. Retail wheat flour prices in selected
CIS in Asia countries
USD/kg
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
J
F M A
2012
estim. 2010 2011
Armenia (national average)
Azerbaijan (national average)
Georgia (national average)
2012
estim.
Change:
2012/2011 (%)
CIS in Asia 21.1 33.9 21.9 4.3 6.2 5.1 26.2 41.0 27.8 -32.1
Armenia 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.8
Azerbaijan 1.3 1.6 2.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.9 2.4 2.8 13.9
Georgia 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.0
Kazakhstan 9.9 22.7 10.3 2.0 3.5 2.2 12.3 26.6 12.9 -51.3
Kyrgyzstan 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.3 -14.3
Tajikistan 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 5.0
Turkmenistan 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 -6.4
Uzbekistan 6.7 6.3 6.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 7.2 7.0 7.3 5.6
Note: Totals and percentage change computed from unrounded data.
1 Total cereals includes wheat, coarse grains and rice (paddy).
Kyrgyzstan (national average)
Tajikistan (national average)
M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
2011 2012
2013
Sources: National Statistical Service of Republic of Armenia; National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz
Republic; State Committee on Statistics, Republic of Tajikistan; State Statistical Committee of the Republic of
Azerbaijan; National Statistics Office of Georgia.
No. 1 n March 2013 23