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Hippo | July 1 - 7, 2010 | Page 10
Ever parked your
car on the street leaving
plenty of room in
front and back to get
out later, but when you came back you have
about three inches of clearance on either side?
The only way to get out of that tight fit is to
inch forward and back about 100 times to get
your car free.
If you can imagine that, you know what it
feels like to be Danny Ainge as he tries to
reshape the Celtics into a contender again
next season. And, despite a year of managing
minutes, age-related injuries and a cruise
control mentality among some veterans, it
appears Danny will give it one more run with
the current core. So he needs to maneuver his
way to getting some new players to balance
the inevitable decline in consistent production
from an aging core with a land-locked salary
cap position.
It’s not that Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce
and Ray Allen weren’t effective when it
counted. They were good enough to come
within a fourth-period fold of the NBA title
and beat teams with the league’s two best
records along the way. It’s just that only KG
may have a better season in the coming year.
And that’s only because he’ll be 18 months
removed from the surgery that cost him the
2009 playoffs. Still, at 34, even that is dicey,
because 34-year-olds with 14 years of tread
on the tires usually lose productivity, not gain.
As for the other two, Pierce will be 33 on Oct.
13 and Allen 35 on July 20, and while each
had his moments, both showed signs of wear
during the season and in the playoffs.
Thus it’s not just a matter of plugging in a
big for the retiring Rasheed Wallace. They
need some key new pieces to fill in the inevitable
lost production offensively and on the
boards that will most likely happen in 2011.
And Kendrick Perkins’ knee surgery which
only makes the picture murkier. On the bright
side, Rajon Rondo will be better, as will Big
Baby, so they can take up some of the slack,
but their improvement won’t be enough.
So here are some things Danny needs to
consider as he goes about his business this
summer, starting with an assessment of the
Big Three and the formula needed to win.
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The Formula: Unless you have the overwhelmingly
best player, as the Bulls did with
Michael Jordan and L.A. with Shaq and
maybe the Kobe Lakers do too, you need
three big-time stars to win. And one has to be
a Top 10 player as KG was when the Celtics
won in 2008. While they may have two
of the three, it doesn’t appear they’ll have the
needed one at the top as currently constructed
— so now what?
Ray Allen: A free agent whose 16.3 points
per game were his lowest since his rookie
year and his 36.3% from threepointland was
the worst of his career. Those numbers say
he’s now a complementary player and not a
Big 3 type. Worth signing at $5 million for
a year, maybe two, but not if the numbers go
higher or the years get to long. If it does, lets
hope whoever’s offering needs to do a sign
and trade to bring some pieces to maneuver
with.
Kevin Garnett: Maybe it’s the knee still
healing, but he’s a different player now. Still
the vital player for team defense, but he’s no
longer much of a low-post scorer and he got
killed on the boards by Pao Gasol in the finals
— especially in the Game 1 and 7 losses. He’s
still key, but now a number two or, more likely,
the third star.
Paul Pierce: You may recall last year at
this time I was for taking the Branch Rickey
route. That is, “it’s better to trade a guy a year
too early than a year too late” because you
can get something of real value that may be
helpful for long after the star player is done,
instead of waiting too long when you won’t
get much back. He had his moments but was
nowhere near his 2008 vs. the Lakers. His
game revolves around taking it to the basket
because it gets him to the line and buys
him space outside for his jumper. Thus, while
he’s not quite at this stage yet, he’s becoming
like Michael Jordan in Washington after age
robbed him of his ability to slash — a jump
shooter. So I think he’s down to third-star status.
He can also opt out of his $21 million
contract, which would help. But not if they
have to give him an extension for three or four
more years to do it. Plus he’s the only one who
could maybe bring a future star in a deal.
1989 Celtics: The run of dominance was
over by then, but Red kept his Big 3 until the
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end to retire Celtics. I had no problem with
that, though I have two comments. Thanks to
that and the deaths of Len Bias and Reggie
Lewis, they went 22 years between titles. And
second, I find it interesting the guy traded
from the core — one Danny Ainge — easily
had the most productivity left. Danny saw
it first hand and needs to leave sentimentality
behind.
The 1965 Yankees Syndrome: They went
from first to worst over two years with a stop
in sixth place in between. It happened because
stars Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford and Roger
Maris were in decline when they won the
’64 pennant but few realized it because they
were still intimidated by the Yankees uniform.
But 1965 for them, was like all those inexplicable
home losses to the Nets, Wizards and
other bad teams in 2010. So if I’m Danny, I’m
thinking of this because it wasn’t the last team
that played well one year and was nowhere
close to that four months later.
Needs: In order: First, another star to meet
the formula. Second, rebounding. Rondo can
not dominate a game unless they force transition
and you need to control the defensive
boards to do it. Third, a low post scorer —
with KG and Pierce in transition they need
one. Youth — it will lead to a more consistent
regular-season performance — preferably in
Rasheed’s vacated back-up center spot. And
maybe a coach.
Conclusion: While some say you’ve got to
go for it when a title is in sight and not worry
about a long-term collapse, I’m more inclined
to try to get three titles over 10 years while
being in contention that whole time even if it
means stepping back next year. Twenty years
of Celtics irrelevance was tough to take and
I don’t want that to happen again. So they
have to be wary of 1965 Yankees syndrome,
be ready to explore moving Pierce, Allen or
Garnett if the right deal comes along and be
willing to do it if it does.
Dave Long can be reached at dlong@
hippopress.com. He hosts Dave Long and
Company from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. each Saturday
on WGAM – The Game, 1250-AM,
Manchester, 900-AM Nashua
063295
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