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The FORE-SCE model: Land Use Modeling ... - Farm Foundation

The FORE-SCE model: Land Use Modeling ... - Farm Foundation

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Old Method<br />

New (improved?) Method<br />

USGS EROS Data Center<br />

Generating Change Polygons<br />

and <strong>FORE</strong>-<strong>SCE</strong> run time<br />

Once seed size is determined, a change patch<br />

centered on that seed is placed<br />

Old method – Region grow function into<br />

adjacent pixels of similar (or higher)<br />

probability<br />

Patches more “organic”, dependent upon<br />

probability surface characteristics<br />

Problem – Model Run times were 2-3 real days<br />

per yearly <strong>model</strong> iteration<br />

New method – Pre-established patch “library”<br />

of a limited number of patch configurations<br />

Assigned patch size for a seed determines pool<br />

of potential patch configurations<br />

Underlying probability surface still controls<br />

individual pixel placement<br />

“Canned” patches with less variability, but:<br />

1992 to 2050 <strong>model</strong> run (58 iterations) now<br />

takes just over 24 hours

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