Review of Input and Output Policies for Cereal Production in ...

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Figure 2.4—Foodgrain surplus/deficit and foodgrain import/aid, 1972/73 to 2007/08 '000 tons 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 2,825 1,667 2,293 1,493 779 1,678 1,147 2,782 1,076 1,255 1,844 2,056 2,593 1,200 1,767 2,917 2,136 1,533 1,564 1,183 966 2,566 2,427 967 1,951 5,491 2,104 1,554 1,799 3,221 2,799 3,375 2,562 2,420 3,471 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 1978-79 1980-81 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 1991-92 1993-94 Source: Food Planning and Monitoring Unit 2008. Notes: (1) Foodgrain here consists of rice and wheat; (2) Surplus/deficit is the difference between the total foodgrain requirement and the net domestic production; (3) Foodgrain requirement is calculated on the basis of the normative per capita requirement fixed at 453.66 grams per day per head; and (4) Net domestic production is calculated by deducting 11.58 percent of the total production for seed, feed, and wastage. Trends in Cereal Production, Area, and Yields Bangladesh’s agricultural sector is dominated by rice. Three seasons of rice crop are possible in Bangladesh, and nearly 75 percent of the total cropped area in the country comprises only rice. This area under rice has remained fairly constant, but total rice production has shown a steady increase on the back of increasing yield levels. Rice yields have increased from less than 1,500 kilogram (kg)/ hectare (ha) in 1986–87 to an average of more than 2,700 kg/ha by 2008–09 (Figure 2.5), while gross rice acreage has remained at around the 10 million ha mark. Consequently, production has more than doubled from around 15 million tons in 1986–87 to more than 31 million tons in 2008–09. Since 1999–2000, the growth rate in yield of rice has accelerated to 3.6 percent on average per annum, moving upward from 2.6 percent in the previous decade. This rapid growth in rice yields has been linked to the growth in tubewell irrigation and increasing use of high-yielding varieties and other inputs, particularly in the boro season (Asaduzzaman 2009, Hossain 2009). The policy drivers contributing to this will be examined later in this report. 4 1995-96 1997-98 Deficit(-)/Surplus(+) Imports/Aid 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 .
Figure 2.5—Rice area, production, yield, 1986/87 to 2008/09, and growth rate in yield, 1998/90 to 1998/99 and 1999/00 to 2008/09 million ha/million mt 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1986-87 1988-89 1990-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 Area Production Yield Source: Ministry of Finance 2009. 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 The other two cereals—maize and wheat—occupy a relatively minor position in Bangladesh’s agriculture economy. Wheat, in particular, appears to be on a decline in recent years. Wheat area (production) has fallen from a high of 0.88 million ha (1.9 million tons) in 1998–99 to less than 0.4 million ha (0.85 million ha) by 2008–09 (Figure 2.6). A part of wheat acreage seems to have been replaced by rice, and recently by the rapid growth of maize. Figure 2.6—Wheat area and production, 1971/72 to 2008/09, and maize area and production, 1991/92 to 2005/06 '000 ha, '000 tons 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1971-72 1974-75 1977-78 1980-81 1983-84 1986-87 1989-90 1992-93 1995-96 1998-99 2001-02 2004-05 2007-08 Wheat Production Wheat Area Sources: Ministry of Agriculture 2007, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics 2010. '000 ha, '000 tons In contrast, maize in Bangladesh has been a huge success in recent years. There has been a rapid rise in yield levels similar to that observed in parts of South Asia. The trajectory of maize shows a remarkable change after 2000, with production jumping from a miniscule 4,000 tons in 1999–00 to more than 523,000 tons by 2005–06 (Figure 2.6). This dramatic rise in production is driven by the lucky combination of rising demand for maize from the poultry sector around this period; the emerging impact of earlier maize research and extension activities, aided by suitable climatic conditions in Bangladesh for hybrid maize; and the high rates of fertilizer use that had an impact on maize yields. Since 2000, maize has been responding to these drivers of growth and the area and production has been expanding at a fast pace, especially in the northwestern and west-central districts of Bangladesh (Ali et al. 2008). 5 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 kg/ha 1991-92 Average annual growth in yield (%) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1993-94 1995-96 2.6 1989-90 to 1998-99 1997-98 1999-00 3.6 1999-00 to 2008-09 2001-02 2003-04 Maize Production Maize Area 2005-06 . .
Page 1 and 2: IFPRI Discussion Paper 01199 July 2
Page 3 and 4: Contents Abstract v Acknowledgement
Page 5 and 6: ABSTRACT In Bangladesh, supportive
Page 7 and 8: 1. INTRODUCTION Bangladesh is a hig
Page 9: The agricultural sector in Banglade
Page 13 and 14: Table 3.1—Demand for and supply o
Page 15 and 16: Table 3.2—Continued Bangladesh Ag
Page 17 and 18: account for well over two-thirds of
Page 19 and 20: The spread of chemical fertilizer u
Page 21 and 22: Table 3.4—Changing fertilizer pol
Page 23 and 24: The second major apprehension about
Page 25 and 26: with these phenomena of increasing
Page 27 and 28: From an institutional point of view
Page 29 and 30: Farm Mechanization Use of mechanize
Page 31 and 32: Figure 3.8—Trends in public expen
Page 33 and 34: Agricultural Credit Securing access
Page 35 and 36: 4. OUTPUT SECTOR The previous secti
Page 37 and 38: Table 4.2—Public procurement of r
Page 39 and 40: 5. CONCLUSIONS Bangladesh’s agric
Page 41 and 42: REFERENCES Ahmed, A. U., N. Aberman
Page 43: Jashim, A., and J. Chowdhury. 2001.
Page 48: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH

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