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judgment on whether or not a given connector demonstrated exponential change in the<br />

time period May 2005 through June 2006. <strong>The</strong> determination will be based on the<br />

following observations:<br />

(1) Percentage change over the time period, May 2005 to June 2006;<br />

(2) Traffic trend estimation with respect to an exponential function;<br />

(3) <strong>Website</strong> volatility<br />

A couple cautions and limitations should be mentioned at this point. <strong>The</strong><br />

following data analysis is exploratory and descriptive - causality cannot be asserted using<br />

the methods I employ here. I am also unable to distinguish between the characteristics<br />

attributed to the host organization from those of the online community of users. I treat<br />

them as a single entity, what I have been referring to as a social institution. This analysis<br />

is strongly suggestive, but not conclusive, since we are looking at a relatively small<br />

number of connector websites. In any case we should be able to learn more about<br />

longitudinal trends on thirteen popular connector websites and see if past trends may<br />

have future implications <strong>for</strong> social change.<br />

comScore Media Metric Analysis<br />

Table 3 lists the connector websites in rank order of monthly unique visitors<br />

(hereafter, traffic) in June 2006. MySpace clearly separates itself from the pack, having<br />

more than three times the number users when compared to the nearest connector. <strong>The</strong><br />

U.S. traffic coming to MySpace is about 30% of the U.S. traffic on the entire Internet.<br />

Classmates.com and Facebook each claim roughly 8% of U.S. Internet users. Moving<br />

18

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