solar thermal power - Greenpeace

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THE FUTURE FOR SOLAR THERMAL POWER The Greenpeace – ESTIA Scenario for 2020 and Projection to 2040 This scenario was prepared by Greenpeace International and the European Solar Thermal Power Industry Association in order to project what could be achieved given the right market conditions. Its core assessment looks forward 18 years from the base year of 2002 to the end of the second decade of the 21st century. It is not a prediction, but a scenario based on expected advances in solar thermal technology coupled with the growing number of countries which are supporting CSP projects in order to achieve both climate change and power demand objectives. SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANTS 34
KEY RESULTS FROM GREENPEACE-ESTIA SCENARIO 2002-2020 Capacity of Solar Thermal Power in 2020 Electricity Production in 2020 Cumulative Investment in Plant Construction Employment Generated 21,540 MW 54.6 TWh 41.8 billion 200,000 jobs Carbon Emissions Avoided 2002 – 2020 154 million tonnes CO 2 Carbon Emissions Avoided in 2020 32.7 million tonnes CO 2 Projection 2021 to 2040 Capacity of Solar Thermal Power in 2040 630,000 MW Electricity Production in 2040 1573 TWh Percentage of Global Demand 5% Over the period of the scenario, solar thermal technology will have emerged from a relatively marginal position in the hierarchy of renewable energy sources to achieve a substantial status alongside the current market leaders such as hydro and wind power. From a current level of just 354 MW, by 2015 the total installed capacity of solar thermal power plants will have passed 5,000 MW. By 2020 additional capacity would be rising at a level of almost 4,500 MW each year. At the end of the scenario period, the total installed capacity around the world will have reached the impressive figure of 21,540 MW. The scenario also shows how much electricity would be produced by solar thermal power plants. This is based on the assumption that 1 MW of capacity produces 2,500 MW hours of electricity per annum. By 2020 solar thermal power will have achieved an annual output of more than 54,000,000 MWh, or 54 TWh. In terms of capital investment, it is assumed in the scenario that during the initial years, solar field investment costs are at a level of US$ 2,500/kW installed, slightly lower but close to the US$ 3,000/kW level of the SEGS plants in California during the early 1990s. These specific investment costs then fall gradually over the timescale of the scenario, and are cut by half in 2020. This means that the investment volume in solar thermal power plants will rise from US$ 375 million in 2005 to almost US$ 7.6 billion in 2020. plant operation and maintenance. More than 40,000 jobs would be created in plant construction, and a further 40,000 in plant component manufacture. By 2020, about 200,000 people will be permanently employed in the solar thermal power industry worldwide. The final benefit from realisation of the Greenpeace-ESTIA scenario would be to the environment. Over the period up to 2020 a total of 154 million tonnes of carbon dioxide would be saved from being emitted into the atmosphere, making a substantial contribution to international climate change targets. The assumption here is that 1 MWh of installed solar thermal power capacity results in the saving of 600 kilograms of carbon dioxide. The total annual savings of 32.7 million tonnes CO 2 in 2020 is equivalent to 20 coal fired power plants. The scenario is also broken down by region of the world and into the main country markets. By 2020, the leading regions will be Europe. The most promising countries according to the scenario, each with more than 1,000 MW of solar thermal projects expected by 2020, are Spain, the United States, Mexico, Australia and South Africa. The total investment over the scenario period would amount to more than US$ 41.8 bn. A substantial level of employment would be an important by-product of this expansion in the solar thermal power industry. At the end of the scenario period, more than 20,000 highly qualified jobs will have been created just in SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANTS 35
Page 1 and 2: SOLAR THERMAL POWER EXPLOITING THE
Page 3 and 4: CONTENTS FOREWORD EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Page 5 and 6: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Power from the Su
Page 7 and 8: KEY RESULTS FROM GREENPEACE-ESTIA S
Page 9 and 10: Solar thermal power uses direct sun
Page 11 and 12: Arial View of five 30MW SEGS plants
Page 13 and 14: Table 2: Comparison of Solar Therma
Page 15 and 16: Figure 7: Side view of a EuroTrough
Page 17 and 18: Solar Costs “For the current stat
Page 19 and 20: Figure 8: Parabolic Trough Power Pl
Page 21 and 22: Cost Trends Installed capital costs
Page 23 and 24: Figure 10: AndaSol Configuration di
Page 25 and 26: Climate Change and Fuel Choices Car
Page 27 and 28: Progress on developing the market h
Page 29 and 30: In other countries with a large sol
Page 31 and 32: Table 6: Solar Thermal Power Target
Page 33 and 34: The key findings were: • The sola
Page 35: Italy In 2001, the Italian parliame
Page 39 and 40: Table 8: Solar Thermal Power by 202
Page 41 and 42: Table 16: Latin America Year OECD-L
Page 43 and 44: Table 24: Case Study: Israel Year I
Page 45 and 46: For those nations still in developm
Page 47 and 48: 3. Public-Private Partnerships for
Page 49 and 50: III. Improve financing mechanisms E
Page 51 and 52: By 2040 the proportion of global el

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