Slides - IEA

Latest Update
OMR 13 June 2012
© OECD/IEA - 2012

Oil Demand Growth +820 kb/d in 2012
Asia Dominates Global Increases
North America
467
-249
-194
Global Oil Demand Growth 2010/2011/2012
thousand barrels per day
-16
Europe
-367 -343 270
Middle East
304
177 178
FSU
235
159
1444
Asia
728 702
Latin America
347
242
185
32
Africa
-45
131
Global Demand Growth
(mb/d)
2010 2.85 3.3%
2011 0.72 0.8%
2012 0.82 0.9%
• Global Oil Demand forecast to endure a second consecutive
low-growth year in 2012, up by 0.8 mb/d to 89.9 mb/d
• Asia will dominate growth, up 0.7 mb/d to 28.8 mb/d
• China +0.3 mb/d India +0.1 mb/d
• Africa also likely to return to strong growth, +3.9% to 3.5 mb/d,
with Libya and Egypt likely to rebound
• Weakest outlook is for Europe, -0.3 mb/d (-2.3%) to 14.7 mb/d
© OECD/IEA - 2012 2
Source: IEA Oil Market Report

Non-OECD Dominates Demand Growth
With Transportation Fuels Leading Momentum
OECD vs. Non-OECD Cumulative Oil
mb/d
Demand Growth by Use
15
Non-OECD - Other
Non-OECD - Transportation
10
OECD - Other
OECD - Transportation
5
-
(5)
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
mb/d
0.5
0.3
0.1
(0.1)
(0.3)
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.9)
(1.1)
(1.3)
OECD: Demand Growth by Region
2007-2012
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
• Non-OECD dominates growth, +1.2 mb/d in 2012 to 44.7 mb/d
• OECD continues structural decline, -0.4 mb/d to 45.2 mb/d
• Under Low case scenario, growth comes in at modest +0.34 mb/d
mb/d
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
(0.5)
Non-OECD: Demand Growth by Region
2009 2010 2011 2012
China Oth. Asia M. East
Latam Other Non-OECD
Oil Demand Sensitivity
(million barrels per day)
2011 2012 2012 vs. 2011
% mb/d
Base GDP
Global GDP (y-o-y chg) 3.7% 3.5%
OECD 45.6 45.2 -0.9% -0.40
Non-OECD 43.4 44.7 2.8% 1.22
World 89.1 89.9 0.9% 0.82
Lower GDP
Global GDP (y-o-y chg) 3.7% 2.3%
OECD 45.6 45.1 -1.1% -0.50
Non-OECD 43.4 44.3 1.9% 0.84
World 89.1 89.4 0.4% 0.34
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
3

OPEC Crude Supply Edges Lower In May
Output Still Near 4-Year Highs
mb/d
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
Quarterly Call on OPEC Crude +
Stock Change
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2010 2011 2012
Entire series based on OPEC Composition as of January 2009
onwards (including Angola & Ecuador & excluding Indonesia)
mb/d
32
31
30
29
28
OPEC Crude Oil Production
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
2009 2010 2011 2012
Entire series based on OPEC Composition as of January 2009
onwards (including Angola & Ecuador & excluding Indonesia)
© OECD/IEA - 2012
• OPEC supply ended 7-month run of increased output in May, off
a marginal 20 kb/d in May, to 31.87 mb/d
• Higher output from Angola, Nigeria, and Libya was offset by reduced
supplies from Saudi Arabia and Iraq
• OPEC NGLs forecast to increase 400 kb/d to 6.2 mb/d in 2012,
a downward revision of 100 kb/d from last month
• Reduction in Iran and Algeria while growth stems from Qatar and the UAE
• The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2012 is
unchanged at 30.3 mb/d
• The ‘Call’ is expected to increase from 29.8 mb/d in the Jan-June period to
30.9 mb/d in the second half of the year
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
4

Iran Oil Exports Trend Lower In May
Customers Curtail Liftings Ahead of 1 July Sanctions
• Iranian crude supply
unchanged at 3.3 mb/d in May,
around 200 kb/d below end-2011
levels of 3.5 mb/d
• Preliminary tanker data show
steep drop in OECD Iranian
imports in May albeit data are
subject to revision while floating
storage rose to around 41 mb by
end-May
kb/d
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Iranian Crude Imports
0
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Total - RHS
OECD PAC
Other Non-OECD
?
OECD EUR
China / India
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
• Implementation of full sanctions is assumed to ultimately
lead to a cut of some 1 mb/d in Iranian supplies in 2H12 as
storage tanks both onshore and offshore reach maximum
capacity unless the country finds alternative outlets
• The US has exempted 17 countries from sanctions
effective 28 June after demonstrating that they have
significantly reduced imports of Iranian crudes, with China is the
notable exception
• The waiver is for 180 days and intended to allow countries
more time to reduce imports from Iran further
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Source: IEA Oil Market Report 5

OPEC Spare Capacity Pegged at 2.38 Mb/d
Saudis Hold Near 80% of Spare Capacity
• OPEC’s ‘effective’ spare capacity at 2.38 mb/d, with
Saudi Arabia accounting for 1.88 mb/d
• 3Q12 OPEC sustainable production capacity expected to
increase by 380 kb/d to 35.4 mb/d versus 34.97 mb/d in
2Q12
• Iraq, Angola and Venezuela bring onstream new
production
• Smaller increases also seen in Nigeria and Libya
mb/d
OPEC Spare Capacity
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
OPEC Effective Spare Capacity Iraq Ven/Nig Libya Iran
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Source: IEA Oil Market Report 6

Global Oil Supply Rose by 200 kb/d in May
non-OPEC crude supplies accounted for all of the increase
mb/d
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
Year-on-Year Change
Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12
OP EC Crude
OPEC NGLs
Non-OPEC
Total Supply
mb/d
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12
Non-OPEC
OPEC Crude - RS
OPEC NGLs
mb/d
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0
• Global oil supply increased by 0.2 mb/d to
91.1mb/d in May
• Non-OPEC supplies support the increase
• Compared to a year ago, global oil production
stood 4.2 mb/d higher
• 70% of increase stemmed from higher output
of OPEC crude and NGLs
© OECD/IEA - 2012 7
Source: IEA Oil Market Report

Unplanned Outages Dent Supplies in 2012
Unplanned Shut-ins Shave As Much As 1.1 mb/d Off 1Q12
• Yet, supplies still grow in 1Q12 by 0.7 mb/d on an annual
basis
• Unplanned outages reach around 1.3 mb/d in 2Q12
• Mechanical, weather-related outages in the North Sea and Canada
• continued unrest and additional sanctions in Syria,
• pipeline sabotage and labour strikes in Colombia, Oman, and Yemen
• Transit dispute and military unrest between Sudan and South Sudan.
• North American supplies should support non-OPEC supply
growth of 0.7 mb/d in 2012
kb/d
-200
-500
-800
-1100
-1400
-1700
-2000
Non-OPEC Selected Shut-ins &
Maintenance
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
-320
-750 -540 -760
-1020
Unplanned outages -1210
-1260 -1180
North Sea planned maintenance
Unplanned Outages (N.Sea)
Other Unplanned Outages
kb/d
BFOE* Crude
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
2009 2010 2011 2012
*Includes Brent, Ninian, Forties, ETAP, Ekofisk, Oseberg/Troll
BFOE falls under 1 mb/d
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
8

Non-OPEC Supply to Grow By 0.7 mb/d in 2012
Following Constrained 2011
mb/d
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
-0.3
-0.6
Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change
1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12
Crude
NGL
Processing Gains Non-conv
Global Biofuels
Total
mb/d Global Biofuels Production
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
2008 2009
2010 2011
2012 forecast 2012
• Non-OPEC oil supply projected to rise 0.7 mb/d to 53.4
mb/d in 2012, a return to the magnitude of growth seen in
2009/2010 and 2000-2004
• 2012 incremental supply will in large part stem from increasing
production in North America, Russia, Latin America, NGLs, and
biofuels
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
9

OECD Commercial Oil Inventories
Rose both in April and May
mb
2,850
2,750
2,650
2,550
2,450
OECD Total Oil Stocks
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Range 2007-2011 Avg 2007-2011
2011 2012
days
63
61
59
57
55
53
51
OECD Total Oil Stocks Days of
Forward Demand
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Range 2007-2011 Avg 2007-2011
2011 2012
© OECD/IEA - 2012
• April OECD industry oil stocks rose by 17.3 mb to 2 649 mb,
in line with the five-year average increase of 19.4 mb
• OECD commercial oil stocks have now narrowed the apparent deficit to
the five-year average
• Days of forward demand cover fell by 0.1 day to 59.4 days, 1.9 days
above the five-year average
• Crude inventories increased by 21.6 mb to 983 mb while product
holdings fell by 9.6 mb to 1 352 mb
• Preliminary data indicate a 20.1 mb increase in May OECD
industry inventories
10
Source: IEA Oil Market Report

North American Industry Oil Inventories
Rose fell in April but increased in May
© OECD/IEA - 2012
mb OECD North America Total Oil Stocks mb US Weekly Cushing Crude Stocks
1,444
1,394
1,344
1,294
1,244
1,194
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Range 2007-2011 Avg 2007-2011
2011 2012
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Source: EIA
Jan Apr Jul Oct
Range 2007-11
2011
5-yr Average
2012
• April North American industry oil stocks fell by 3.8 mb to
1 325 mb in contrast with a seasonal build of 15.3 mb
• Crude oil holdings rose by 13.9 mb while refined product inventories
plummeted by 16.5 mb
• US oil inventories increased by 17.3 mb in May
• Crude oil and refined product holdings rose by 7.7 mb and 9.7 mb,
respectively
• Crude levels at Cushing rose by 4.5 mb to a new record high of
47.8 mb
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
11

European Commercial Inventories
increased both in April and May
© OECD/IEA - 2012
mb
1,024
1,004
984
964
944
924
904
884
OECD Europe Total Oil Stocks
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Range 2007-2011 Avg 2007-2011
2011 2012
days
71
66
61
56
OECD Europe Total Oil Stocks Days
of Forward Demand
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Range 2007-2011 Avg 2007-2011
2011 2012
• April European Industry oil stocks fell by 2.8 mb to 923 mb
• They have remained stubbornly below their seasonal norms for thirteen
consecutive months
• However, days of forward demand cover look more comfortable, having
stood above the five-year average for nine successive months
• Crude oil inventories declined by 4.0 mb to 306 mb while refined
product inventories edged up by 0.5 mb to 539 mb
• May preliminary data show a 11.3 mb stock draw, in
contrast with a five-year average 2.6 mb build
• Refined product inventories led the drop, decreasing by 14.3 mb, while
crude oil inventories rose by 3.1 mb
12
Source: IEA Oil Market Report

mb
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
Pacific Commercial Oil Inventories
rose both in April and May
OECD Pacific Crude Oil Stocks
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Range 2007-2011 Avg 2007-2011
2011 2012
mb
130
120
110
100
90
80
Source: PAJ
Japan Weekly Crude Stocks
Jan Apr Jul Oct
Range 2007-11
2011 5-yr Average
2012
• Commercial oil inventories in the OECD Pacific surged by
23.8 mb to 401 mb in April
• They now stand closer to historical norms in both absolute and
forward cover terms, after nearly a year of relative tightness
• Crude holdings increased by 11.6 mb to 166 mb and product stocks
increased by 6.3 mb to 159 mb
• May Japanese industry oil stocks surged by 14.1 mb
• Crude stocks rose sharply by 10.7 mb while product holdings rose by
2.7 mb
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
13

Springtime Price Slump Accelerated in May
Down on Worsening Euro Zone Crisis, Global Supply Increase
$/bbl
130
120
110
100
90
80
Crude Futures
Front Month Close
Source: ICE, NYMEX
70
May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12
NYMEX WTI ICE Brent
$/bbl
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
NYMEX WTI & ICE Brent
Forward Price Curves
8 June 2012
Source: ICE, NYMEX
M1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
NYMEX WTI
ICE Brent
• Downturn in crude oil prices accelerated in May and into
early June, amid deepening euro zone crisis, slowdown in China
and increased global oil supplies
• Futures prices in May plummeted to the lowest level in
around six months, with Brent posting a $10.20/bbl decline
while WTI was off by around $8.65/bbl, to $110.29/bbl and
$94.72/bbl, respectively
• Brent futures fell below the $100/bbl threshold for the
first time in 15 months on 1 June
© OECD/IEA - 2012
• Brent crude was trading at around $97.50/bbl and WTI at
$83.50/bbl
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
14

Oil Prices Track Worsening Economic Crisis
Fall In Line with Broader Financial Market Downturn
US$/bbl
120
110
100
90
80
70
NYMEX WTI vs S&P 500
60
Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12
NYMEX WTI
S&P 500 (RHS)
Index
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
Source: NYMEX
-6
1000
$/bbl
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Backwardation
Crude Futures
Forward Spreads
May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12
WTI M1-M12
Source: ICE, NYMEX
Contango
Brent M1-M12
• Resurgent worries over the euro zone crisis also saw oil prices
more closely track the broader financial markets
• Acute sovereign debt issues heightened risk aversion in global
commodity markets and triggered a massive liquidation by investors in
net-long oil futures contracts
• Increased crude supplies in Europe, especially from Libya, Iraq
and Saudi Arabia, add downward pressure on the front end of
the forward curve for Brent
• Brent M1-M12 backwardation narrowed sharply, to around
$2.50/bbl in early June compared with $4.54/bbl in May
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
15

$/bbl
130
120
110
100
90
80
Spot Crude Markets Tumble in May
Pressured By Increased Global Supplies & Economic Woes
Benchmark Crude Prices
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd
70
May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12
WTI Cushing N. Sea Dated Dubai
$/bbl US Gulf Coast Crude Prices
9
LLS Differential to Mars
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd
• Spot crude oil prices plummeted by around $18-25/bbl over
May and into early June on rising global oil supplies while
deepening economic woes heightened fears of demand destruction
• A surplus of light, sweet crude was especially pronounced in
the US and Europe, which in turn led to a narrowing in the sweetsour
crude price spread
• Rising US production of light, tight oil from the Midcontinent and
rising flows of Canadian crude backed out foreign supplies of
higher quality crude that are typically in strong demand during
the US summer driving season
© OECD/IEA - 2012
• As a result, a surplus of Nigerian, Algerian and other gasoline-rich
crudes weighed on European crude markets 16
Source: IEA Oil Market Report

$/bbl
5
Products Crack Spreads Mixed in May
Poor Petrochemical Demand Pressured Naphtha Prices
Naphtha
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes
20
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd
15
0
10
-5
5
0
-10
-5
-10
-15
-15
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd
-20
-20
May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12
May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12
NWE
SP
NWE LSFO 1% Med LSFO 1%
Med ME Gulf Indonesia LSWR
$/bbl
Low-Sulphur Fuel Oil (1%)
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes
© OECD/IEA - 2012
• Refined product crack spreads were mixed in May
• Fuel oil showed exceptional strength in Asia, in part due to
continued Japanese demand and tightness in op-spec bunker fuel,
• Gasoline on the US Gulf Coast strengthened, largely due to
increased flows of similar grades and a downward correction in LLS
• By contrast, European crack spreads were mostly weaker.
• Light distillates, and naphtha in particular, saw the largest
declines on weak petrochemical demand
• Increased supply with refiners coming back from maintenance
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
17

Trade Activities in Futures Markets
Open Interest Tested Fresh Records in May
• Triggered by a more than
9.1% and 3.1% declines in
NYMEX WTI and ICE WTI
open interest, the ratio of
Brent to WTI futures open
interest tested fresh records
• Open interest in all oil major
futures contracts decreased
in May
Percentage of Brent to WTI Open Interest
%
100
80
60
40
Source: ICE, CFTC
20
Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12
Brent/WTI (ICE+CME) Brent/WTI (CME)
• Money managers cut their bets on rising WTI crude oil prices
for a third consecutive month, shedding 66 191 contracts to reach
119 910, the lowest level since early September 2010
• Similarly, money managers reduced their bets on rising
Brent prices by more than 50% from 115 227 to 57 303
futures contracts, the lowest level since November 2011
• Index investors’ long exposure in commodities in April
2012 increased by $5.3 billion to $308.1 billion in notional
value. The number of long futures equivalent contracts increased
to 560 000, equivalent to $58.7 billion in notional value
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
18

Regulatory Updates
• On 10 May 2012, the CFTC approved a final rule on the
core principles and other requirements of designated
contract markets (DCMs), which will be one of the venues
along with swap execution facilities (SEFs) where cleared swaps
must be transacted
• However, the CFTC delayed the vote on a controversial rule
on Core Principle 9, otherwise known as the ‘85 percent
rule’
• The CFTC also extended the effective date for swap
regulation until 31 December 2012, or until the
Commission’s rules and regulations go into effect, whichever is
sooner
• On 18 May 2012, the CFTC approved a proposed rule that
amends the CFTC’s aggregation provision for limits on
speculative positions as a response to a petition from the
Working Group of Commercial Energy Firms (WGCEF)
• The proposed amendment requires any person with
an ownership or equity interest in an entity of
between 10 percent and 50 percent to aggregate with
those of the owned entity’s positions unless independence of
trading can be demonstrated
© OECD/IEA - 2012

Bank Losses Sharpen Focus on Proprietary Trading
• Debate surrounding JP Morgan losses will have important
implications for at least three contentious issues;
• The proposed Volcker rule prohibits proprietary trading while
allowing transactions related to underwriting, market-making, risk
mitigating hedging, trading in certain US government obligations,
and trading on behalf of customers
• The determination of what constitutes proprietary trading and what
constitutes legitimate trading activity, such as hedging or marketmaking,
remains under debate, although the final rule will now
likely narrow hedging exemptions
• The Lincoln rule specifically requires federally insured
banking entities to move their risky trades from a banking unit
into separately capitalised affiliates
• Dodd-Frank Act will govern cross-border activities is
important in light of the global nature of the swap market
• The CFTC is yet to vote on interpretive guidance extending the
Dodd-Frank Act to some overseas swap trading, but the
Commission is likely to release its guidance on 21 June 2012
© OECD/IEA - 2012
• Cross-border application of the Dodd-Frank Act might
complicate the international harmonisation of regulation if the
CFTC’s guidance goes beyond its own jurisdiction

Global Crude Refinery Demand
Reach Seasonal Low in April, but set to rise sharply through August
mb/d
77
Global Refining
Crude Throughput
2.0
76
1.5
1.0
75
0.5
74
0.0
73
-0.5
-1.0
72
-1.5
71
-2.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Range 07-11 Average 07-11
2005 2006 2007 2008
2011 2012 est. 2009 2010 2011 2012
mb/d
Global Crude Runs
Quarterly Change
• Global refinery crude throughputs reach seasonal low in
April, as spring refinery maintenance/outages hit spring peak
• Global crude demand rise sharply through 2Q, by 2.8 mb/d
from April to August
• In all, global throughputs are seen averaging 75 mb/d in
1Q12, before falling seasonally to 74.3 mb/d in 2Q12, and rising
further to 75.9 in 3Q12
© OECD/IEA - 2012
• A quartely increase of 1.6 mb/d from 2Q12 shoulder season to
3Q12 peak is in line with historical trends (bar 2008/2009
recession years).
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
21

Rebounding Demand in 2H12 Supports Growth
Global oil demand growth rise to 1.1 mb/d in 2H12, compared to 0.5
mb/d in 1H12 and 0.3 in 2H11
mb/d
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
-0.5
-1.5
-2.5
Global Throughputs vs. Demand
Annual growth
-3.5
1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12
North America Europe Pacific
China Other Asia Middle East
Crude Runs Oil Product Demand Latin America Other
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
mb/d
Global Crude Throughputs
Annual Change
• Since 2Q11 global refinery crude runs growth slows to only
120 kb/d on average, as growth in oil product demand is eroded
• 2Q12 and 3Q12 still sees modest growth in throughputs of 370
kb/d annually.
• 3Q12 growth in throughputs could be stronger than projected
here, but demand also met by products bypassing refining system
(NGLs, biofuels, GTLs and products from storage)
• Throughput growth comes from China, Other Asia and in part from
North America, on expanding capacity, robust demand and export
opportunities
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Source: IEA Oil Market Report
22

Tale of Two Markets Persist
While OECD refiners struggle, non-OECD booms ahead
mb/d
42.0
40.0
38.0
36.0
34.0
32.0
OECD vs. Non-OECD Crude Runs
30.0
1Q2004 1Q2006 1Q2008 1Q2010 1Q2012
OECD
Non-OECD
• OECD refiners struggle with
structural decline in demand and
poor economics
• 3 mb/d of OECD capacity is
shut or committed to shut
since economic downturn
• Non-OECD refiners, on the
other hand, build, expand
and able to run at higher
rates
mb/d
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
OECD Total
Crude Throughput
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Range 07-11 Average 07-11
2011 2012
2012 est.
mb/d
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
Non-OECD Total
Crude Throughput
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Range 07-11 Average 07-11
2010 2011
2012 est.
© OECD/IEA - 2012

OECD also See Diverging Trends
While Europe struggles with weak demand – US surges ahead
mb/d
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
OECD Europe
Crude Throughput
11.5
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
Range 07-11 Average 07-11
2011 2012 est.
2012
US PADD 3 Refinery Throughputs
Source: EIA
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Range 2007-2011 5-yr Average
2011 2012
mb/d US Weekly Refinery Throughput
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.0
14.5
14.0
Source: EIA
13.5
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Range 2007-2011 5-yr Average
2011 2012
mb/d
US PADD 1 Refinery Throughputs
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
Source: EIA
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Range 2007-2011 5-yr Average
2011 2012
• US surge in runs supported by strong product exports – and
start up of Motiva expansion (+325 kb/d on Gulf Coast refinery).
Cheap crude supports Midwest runs, while PADD1 face same problem
as Europe (more expensive feedstocks and less efficient plants
© OECD/IEA - 2012
• The ramp up of Motiva could now be delayed, however, as
technical problem discovered

Summary
• Downturn in crude oil prices accelerated in May and into early June, amid
deepening euro zone crisis, slowdown in China and increased global oil supplies,
with futures prices for Brent last trading around $97.50/bbl and WTI at $83.50/bbl
• Brent M1-M12 backwardation narrowed sharply, to around $2.50/bbl in early June
compared with $4.54/bbl in May
• Global oil consumption is set to rise by 0.8 mb/d in 2012, to 90.0 mb/d,
with non-OECD gains more than offsetting declining OECD demand. After posting
near‐zero annual growth in 4Q11, global demand growth is forecast to gradually
accelerate throughout 2012, culminating in an expansion of 1.2 mb/d by 4Q12.
• Global oil supply increased by 0.2 mb/d to 91.1 mb/d in May, following
higher Non-OPEC liquids. OPEC crude supply edged lower by 20 kb/d, to
31.87 mb/d on reduced production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
• Non-OPEC supply grew by 0.7 mb/d annually in 1H12, as geopolitical and
technical outages dent growth in the Americas.
• Unplanned outages reach around 1.3 mb/d in 2Q12
• April OECD industry oil stocks rose by 17.3 mb to 2 643 mb, narrowing the
deficit to the five-year average in absolute terms. Forward demand cover declined
by 0.1 day to 59.4 days. May initial data show a 20.1 mb build.
• Global throughputs are seen averaging 75 mb/d in 1Q12, before falling
seasonally to 74.3 mb/d in 2Q12, and rising further to 75.9 in 3Q12
• Debate surrounding JP Morgan losses will have important implications for
at least three contentious issues: 1) the Volcker rule that prohibits proprietary
trading, 2) the Lincoln rule about federally insured banking entities and 3) Dodd-
Frank Act governing cross-border activities.
© OECD/IEA - 2012 25
Source: IEA Oil Market Report