Slides - IEA

Summary
• Downturn in crude oil prices accelerated in May and into early June, amid
deepening euro zone crisis, slowdown in China and increased global oil supplies,
with futures prices for Brent last trading around $97.50/bbl and WTI at $83.50/bbl
• Brent M1-M12 backwardation narrowed sharply, to around $2.50/bbl in early June
compared with $4.54/bbl in May
• Global oil consumption is set to rise by 0.8 mb/d in 2012, to 90.0 mb/d,
with non-OECD gains more than offsetting declining OECD demand. After posting
near‐zero annual growth in 4Q11, global demand growth is forecast to gradually
accelerate throughout 2012, culminating in an expansion of 1.2 mb/d by 4Q12.
• Global oil supply increased by 0.2 mb/d to 91.1 mb/d in May, following
higher Non-OPEC liquids. OPEC crude supply edged lower by 20 kb/d, to
31.87 mb/d on reduced production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
• Non-OPEC supply grew by 0.7 mb/d annually in 1H12, as geopolitical and
technical outages dent growth in the Americas.
• Unplanned outages reach around 1.3 mb/d in 2Q12
• April OECD industry oil stocks rose by 17.3 mb to 2 643 mb, narrowing the
deficit to the five-year average in absolute terms. Forward demand cover declined
by 0.1 day to 59.4 days. May initial data show a 20.1 mb build.
• Global throughputs are seen averaging 75 mb/d in 1Q12, before falling
seasonally to 74.3 mb/d in 2Q12, and rising further to 75.9 in 3Q12
• Debate surrounding JP Morgan losses will have important implications for
at least three contentious issues: 1) the Volcker rule that prohibits proprietary
trading, 2) the Lincoln rule about federally insured banking entities and 3) Dodd-
Frank Act governing cross-border activities.
© OECD/IEA - 2012 25
Source: IEA Oil Market Report