English - IFAD

148
Rural Poverty Report 2011
Introduction
If agriculture – particularly smallholder agriculture – is to provide one of the principal
routes out of poverty for the next generation of rural men and women, and create
the sectoral growth that provides non-farm opportunities for others, it must be an
agriculture that is productive, profitable and sustainable. It must be linked to
consumers through efficient markets, and it must be able to respond to market
opportunities and requirements in terms of the
products demanded, the quantities required and
ever-higher specifications and quality standards.
In addition, it needs to be an agriculture that helps
reduce the vulnerabilities of poor rural people to
risks and shocks. Finally, it needs to be an agriculture
that can support the livelihoods of future generations
– one that does not deplete, but rather helps to
protect or restore, the natural resource base.
The world population is expected to grow to over
9 billion people by 2050, and with growing
urbanization and increasing incomes, there will be
a need to raise food production by some 70 per cent.
It may be possible to increase the total arable area in
developing countries by no more than 12 per cent by
2050, 221 the bulk of which would be in sub-Saharan
Africa and Latin America. Therefore, future increases
in agricultural production will have to come mostly
from more intensive land use and higher crop yields; in
land-scarce countries almost all growth will have to be
achieved in this way. 222 Given growing natural resource
constraints in many areas, future increases in livestock
and fishery production will also need to be based on more efficient and sustainable
use of available resources. Although the challenge is a global one, the appropriate
responses need to be context-specific. Farming systems vary enormously across the
developing world, resulting from a combination of natural resource endowments,
population densities, social and political relations, market opportunities and generation
upon generation of innovation, learning and refinement. They span the production of
crops, livestock and fish, and they offer different opportunities for intensification, have
different requirements and face different constraints. This chapter recognizes that
diversity, and looks at how different agricultural systems can most effectively be
intensified in a way that minimizes cost and risk and offers the greatest opportunities
to smallholder farmers – both women and men, today and for future generations.
“The way of farming in the old days
was with human beings pulling the
plough. The young people have never
seen that, nor have they done that.
They don’t want to farm, only the old
ones do… If we continue to farm using
the old ways of ploughing… who will
be willing to farm?”
Li Guimin,
female, 50 years, China