Centroids, Clusters and Crime: Anchoring the Geographic Profiles of ...

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CENTROIDS, CLUSTERS AND CRIME: ANCHORING THE GEOGRAPHIC PROFILES OF SERIAL CRIMINALS Team # 7507 February 22, 2010 1
Team # 7507 Page 2 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 3 2 Background 4 3 Assumptions 6 3.1 Domain is Approximately Urban . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.2 Violent Serial Crimes by a Single Offender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 3.3 Spatial Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4 Developing a Serial Crime Test Set 9 4.1 The Scarcity of Source Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4.2 An Alternative: Pixel Point Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 5 Metrics of Success: The Psychic and the Hairfinder 11 5.1 The Effectiveness Multiplier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 5.2 Robustness of the Metric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 6 Two Schemes for Spatial Prediction 15 7 Single Anchor Point: Centroid Method 15 7.1 Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 7.2 Results and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 7.3 Extensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 8 Multiple Anchor Points: Cluster Method 24 8.1 Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 8.2 Results and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 8.3 Possible Extensions of the Cluster Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 9 The Final Predictor: Combining the Schemes 34 9.1 Results and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 9.2 Possible Extensions to the General Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 10 Conclusion 40 11 Executive Summary 42 References 44
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Page 27 and 28: Team # 7507 Page 26 Figure 9: Dendr
Page 29 and 30: Team # 7507 Page 28 We now have a m
Page 31 and 32: Team # 7507 Page 30 On the whole, t
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Page 39 and 40: Team # 7507 Page 38 home location.[
Page 41 and 42: Team # 7507 Page 40 10 Conclusion T
Page 43 and 44: Team # 7507 Page 42 11 Executive Su
Page 45 and 46: Team # 7507 Page 44 References [1]

Centroids, Clusters and Crime: Anchoring the Geographic Profiles of ...

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