Air traffic update and forecast for Latin America - ACI

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Recent growth at some Latin markets – effect of economy • Although there are other important factors that affect air traffic growth in developing markets, in general it is closely linked both to economic growth and to evolution of yields (fares). 10 8 GDP annual growth for main countries, % YoY Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Perú Mexico 6 4 Average air market growth 2006-2008 2 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Domestic International 14,5% 13,9% 12,9% 12,7% 11,6% 10,6% 10,5% 8,2% 8,8% 7,1% 4,4% 3,0% Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Perú México 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 • Economic growth in Latin America during last years has been very high, especially in Argentina, Perú, Colombia…. This effect, together with the surge of low-cost operations in some countries (a few years ago in Brazil, more recently in Mexico and Chile, now in Colombia) is behind the big recent growth. Sources: DGACs, ICAO, World Bank, ALG elaboration 13
Recent growth at some Latin markets – effect of reduced fares • No matter whether they are called Low-Cost, No- Frills or High-Efficiency airlines, when a new entrant airline in a certain market offers significantly reduced fares, the stimulating effect is immediate. • It was the case in 2001 with GOL in Brazil and in 2006-07 in Mexico with Volaris, Interjet and others. The charts show the clear correlation between lower fares and market growth. • At the same time, traditional airlines (TAM, LAN, TACA, AMX, MXA) have made big efforts for reducing their costs and fares, which at the end has a similar effect in the stimulation of the market. 18 16 14 12 10 8 Domestic yield evolution, UScents/RPK GOL effect Brasil Mexico Interjet/Volaris/ Avolar/Viva… effect 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Domestic Pax, m 50 40 Brasil Mexico 30 20 10 Sources: ANAC, SCT, ALG elaboration 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 14
Page 1 and 2: XVIII ACI-LAC Regional Annual Gener
Page 3 and 4: Latin American aviation in the worl
Page 5 and 6: Travel propensity in Latin America
Page 7 and 8: Main Latin markets 70 60 50 40 30 2
Page 9 and 10: So, where is the money in LatAm…?
Page 11 and 12: The Big Nine Latin American groups
Page 13: In the way towards consolidation
Page 17 and 18: Current crisis - how is hitting Lat
Page 19 and 20: Short-term forecast: First of all,
Page 21 and 22: Forecast - medium term 6% 4% Mid-te
Page 23 and 24: In summary… • Latin American av
Page 25 and 26: Forecast - medium term • The diff
Page 27: Latinoamérica es tierra de oportun

Air traffic update and forecast for Latin America - ACI

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