Air traffic update and forecast for Latin America - ACI

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Current crisis - how is hitting Latin American aviation (1/3) • Current crisis is certainly the worst in the recent history of commercial aviation, much worse than the post-9.11 one. The descent in number of passengers or RPKs comes together with a sharp decline in fares, especially in Premium classes. Freight operations are being hit even harder than passenger's. • However, Latin America as a region is suffering less than others. With the exception of Mexico, whose economy is narrowly linked to the USA, Latin markets and airlines keep either growing or with small descents in traffic in 2009. Since August/September, market is growing again at regional level (next page). Fares and RPKs flown on international markets Jan-Sep 2009 vs 2008 RPK growth LF, % FTK growth % change over year RPKs Economy fares Premium fares Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America -8,9% -8,8% -5,9% -2,3% 9,4% -6,7% 69,6 72,9 76,3 72,0 72,9 79,2 -19,1% -17,0% -19,3% -12,7% -2,6% -17,9% World -5,3% 75,0 -16,4% Source: IATA Sources: Civil Aviation Authorities, ALG 15
Current crisis - how is hitting Latin American aviation (2/3) • Traffic recovery seems on course for most Latin countries except Mexico, especially in domestic markets. • September showed overall growth again for the whole region, after eight months of descent only interrupted in April. 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% -16% 8,3% Brasil (Aug) -6,4% Average market growth in 2009 4,3% Chile (Sep) -9,9% 6,0% 3,1% Colombia (Aug) Domestic 2,0% Ecuador (Jun) -5,0% 4,5% 7,1% Perú (Aug) International Mexico (Sep) -12,3% -14,1% 16 % growth RPKs 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 5 % growth FTKs 0 -5 -10 -15 -4,9-4,2 Africa -5,1 Africa -6,9 -1,6 Passenger growth by region Aug-09 sep-09 2,1 Asia Pacific Asia -3,1 Pacific -9,0 3,4 -4,2 -2,8 -2,3 Europe Latin America 10,8 18,2 Middle East Freight growth by region Europe -14,5 -13 3,9 1,8 3,0 3,6 Latin Middle America East -2,5-2,4 North America -1,1 0,3 World Aug-09 sep-09 North World America -5 -5,4 -9,6 -12,1 Sources: IATA, ALTA
Page 1 and 2: XVIII ACI-LAC Regional Annual Gener
Page 3 and 4: Latin American aviation in the worl
Page 5 and 6: Travel propensity in Latin America
Page 7 and 8: Main Latin markets 70 60 50 40 30 2
Page 9 and 10: So, where is the money in LatAm…?
Page 11 and 12: The Big Nine Latin American groups
Page 13 and 14: In the way towards consolidation
Page 15: Recent growth at some Latin markets
Page 19 and 20: Short-term forecast: First of all,
Page 21 and 22: Forecast - medium term 6% 4% Mid-te
Page 23 and 24: In summary… • Latin American av
Page 25 and 26: Forecast - medium term • The diff
Page 27: Latinoamérica es tierra de oportun

Air traffic update and forecast for Latin America - ACI

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