Air traffic update and forecast for Latin America - ACI

Short-term forecasts for Latin America
• The IATA forecast predicts for 2009 a small increase
in pax and an important descent in freight, but P/L
accounts will keep in break-even for LatAm airlines.
• For 2010, a modest recovery of 3,7% in FTKs (same
as world average), but modest net profits for LatAm
airlines, vs still big losses at world level.
b.RPKs
500
400
300
200
100
0
Short-term traffic forecast for LatAm
479,5
-1,6%
471,7
5,0%
6,0% 5,7%
-2,4% 5,1%
-3,2% 2,7%
-0,7% 5,3%
495,4
2008 2009F 2010F
Other
Central America - US
Intra South America
Domestic South America
Caribbean - US
Domestic Mexico
Central Am. - W.Europe
Mexico - US
Domestic Brazil
South America - US
Caribbean - W.Europe
South Am. - W.Europe
19
2009F
LatAm World
Passengers (%) 0,8%* -4,0%
Cargo, FTKs (%) -12,1%* -14,0%
Traffic growth (FTKs) -4,4% -6,9%
Revenue ($b)
-15,0%
Op. profits ($ b) 0,0 -3,9
Net profit ($ b) 0,0 -11,0
2010F
LatAm World
3,2%
3,7%
0,3
0,1
5,0%
3,7%
4,6%
6,5
-3,8
(*) ALTA data
• Combining several forecast sources
with economic growth figures and
analysis of the different sources of
traffic for every market, we obtain
the growth rates shown in the chart.