Air traffic update and forecast for Latin America - ACI
Air traffic update and forecast for Latin America - ACI
Air traffic update and forecast for Latin America - ACI
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Short-term <strong><strong>for</strong>ecast</strong>:<br />
First of all, aviation is a very resilient industry!<br />
-14%<br />
World annual <strong>traffic</strong><br />
(RPKs - trillions)<br />
4.5<br />
Oil Crisis<br />
Oil Crisis<br />
Gulf Crisis<br />
Asian<br />
Crisis<br />
WTC<br />
AttackSARS<br />
-17%<br />
IATA <strong><strong>for</strong>ecast</strong><br />
(March 2009)<br />
4.0<br />
3.5<br />
3.0<br />
2.5<br />
2.0<br />
1.5<br />
1.0<br />
0.5<br />
• World aviation always recovers<br />
from the periodical crisis. In the<br />
case of the last big one (post-<br />
Sept´11), world air <strong>traffic</strong> took<br />
some three years to recover the<br />
<strong>for</strong>mer growth path.<br />
• For the current crisis IATA<br />
predicts a maximum 17%<br />
descent in <strong>traffic</strong> in 2010 versus<br />
the previous trend, with very<br />
long recovery afterwards (but<br />
IATA <strong><strong>for</strong>ecast</strong>s use to be<br />
overpessimistic!)<br />
0.0<br />
1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007<br />
2012 2015<br />
Sources: ICAO, IATA,<br />
<strong>Air</strong>bus, ALG<br />
18
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