Evaluation of JTI's R&D Activities 2005–2008 - Formas

Trend analysis and future scenarios
Approved by the JTI Board on 27-05-2004
Technical trends in agriculture
The technical trends for primary production which were
identified during the review of “Technical Foresight”, such
as sensor technology and information technology, still largely
apply. These can be effectivised in agriculture. Cultivation
can be carried out with greater precision and with a lower
labour input. Administration and transport can be made
more efficient and finishing processes can be automated
and made safer. However, to a greater extent than is apparent
in “Technical Foresight”, it is likely that biotechnology, in
the broad sense of the term, will have an impact on agriculture,
primarily through the new applications which it
enables. Biotechnology is much more than just GMO and
it probably has the potential to open up a number of new
applications for many areas, e.g. plant protection, fertilisers
and processing.
Political trends and decisions
In the EU, the consumer perspective with regard to food
production is increasingly highlighted at the expense of perspectives
which only favour the industry. The global increase
in obesity and measures against this are one example where
social aspects and consumer perspectives are contrary to certain
industrial interests. At the same time, there are other industrial
interests which quickly catch on to proposed measures
and exploit these. Another example of consumer reaction is
the “slow food” movement which can be seen as a reaction
against “fast food”.
Work on globally sustainable development is still on the
agenda even though the conflict with short sighted economic
growth is increasingly evident. Both globally and nationally,
large resources are channelled into rural development which
is often interwoven with agricultural development.
The issue of climate will probably have increasing significance
for political decisions in future, while environmental
issues are increasingly part of everyday politics and have
been downgraded. The arena for environmental issues is
becoming more and more global, and this is further reinforced
by the movement of base production to low-wage
countries. The relative environmental impacts in Europe of
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Evaluation of JTI’s R&D Activities 2005–2008