Ageless at Work - Skills for Care

Figure 5 Projected working age population by broad age group, South West, 2007
to 2027
1400
16-19 20-24 25-39 40-49 50-SPA
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Number of residents in each age group
Source: ONS Sub-national population projections
The chart shows that most of the growth in the working age population will be among the group aged
between 50 and state pension age (currently below 60 for women and below 65 for men). This is
largely because the state pension age for women is due to rise gradually to 65 between 2010 and
2020, meaning that more older women will be classified as of working age. Thereafter, the state
pension age of both men and women will rise to 68 by 2046. These changes mean that the share of
the working age population that is aged 50 and over will increase from 27% in 2007 to 33% in 2027. In
1987 – twenty years ago – it was 22%. The prospect of one-in-three of the working age population
aged 50 and over is already a reality in West Somerset and some parts of Cornwall, Devon and
Dorset. Furthermore these ‘older’ areas are projected to age faster than younger ones – such as
Exeter and Bristol – increasing the difference between the two. This means that the age structure of
the labour pool will vary significantly depending on the location of the business, requiring locationspecific
strategies to fully utilise the labour and skills available to the business. The number of young
labour market entrants will not change significantly over the next twenty years and will account for a
falling share of the working age population. Given that there will be a great deal of competition to
recruit from this relatively small pool of labour market entrants, the adult care sector will need to
explore other sources of labour – including currently under-represented groups such as men, those of
state pension age, women returning to the labour market following absence, and migrant workers.
Demographic change will also impact on the level and nature of demand for services. This is because
the number of people in the age groups who are the heaviest users of adult social care will increase
substantially. This expansion is illustrated in Figure 6. This shows that the number of residents aged
80 and over will double over the next 25 years, and those aged 60 to 79 will increase by almost half.
In contrast, the population aged under 60 is only expected to increase moderately (by 12%).
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Ageless at Work: Change workplace cultures, development skills. Good practice report