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7.22.1 Euphyllia cristata Chevalier, 1971 ............................................................................................................. 425 7.22.2 Euphyllia paraancora Veron, 1990 ............................................................................................................ 429 7.22.3 Euphyllia paradivisa Veron, 1990 .............................................................................................................. 433 7.23 Genus Physogyra ............................................................................................................................................... 437 7.23.1 Physogyra lichtensteini Saville-Kent, 1871 ................................................................................................ 437 7.24 Genus Turbinaria (Family Dendrophylliidae) ................................................................................................... 441 7.24.1 Turbinaria mesenterina (Lamarck, 1816) .................................................................................................. 441 7.24.2 Turbinaria peltata (Esper, 1794) ................................................................................................................ 445 7.24.3 Turbinaria reniformis Bernard, 1896 ......................................................................................................... 449 7.24.4 Turbinaria stellulata Lamarck, 1816 .......................................................................................................... 453 8. Synthesis of Risk Assessments: Taxonomic, Regional, and Threat-based Patterns .................................................... 457 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................................ 462 Appendix: Millepora boschmai (de Weerdt and Glynn, 1991) ........................................................................................ A-1 x
LIST OF FIGURES Figure ES-1. Example histogram showing the distribution of points to estimate the likelihood that the status of Pavona diffluens will fall below the Critical Risk Threshold (the species is of such low abundance, or so spatially fragmented, or at such reduced diversity that extinction is extremely likely) by 2100. .................................. xxxiv Figure ES-2. Summary of votes tallied across Critical Risk Threshold likelihood categories for all 82 candidate coral species ranked by mean likelihood. ................................................................................................................. xxxv Figure ES-3. Number of coral species mean with likelihood scores (total = 82 scores) in each risk likelihood category. ...................................................................................................................................................................... xxxviii Figure 2.1.1. Schematic view of the anatomy of a coral polyp (corallite) (Sumich, 1996). ................................................ 6 Figure 2.2.1. Diversity of coral life cycle showing different life history stages for broadcast spawners versus brooders, as well as asexual fragmentation. ........................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 3.1.1. World population from 1800 to 2100 based on UN 2004 projections (red, orange, green) and U.S. Census Bureau historical estimates (black) and assessments (blue). ................................................................................ 21 Figure 3.1.2. Recent world and regional trends in (left) human population abundance and (right) human population density from 1960 through 2009. ......................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 3.1.3. Approximate number of people living within 10 km of the coast and 30 km of a coral reef per km 2 of reef. ............................................................................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 3.1.4. Recent world and regional trends in (left) CO 2 emissions and (right) per capita CO 2 emissions from 1960 through 2009. ....................................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 3.1.5. Recent world and regional trends in percent (left) land area in agriculture and (right) forest area over the 1960–2009 period. ............................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 3.2.1. Time series of atmospheric CO 2 , often referred to as the “Keeling Curve”, measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaiì over the 1958–2010 period (Tans and Keeling, 2010). .................................................... 27 Figure 3.2.2. (Left panel) Global average atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide over a 250-year period from 1750 to 2000. The light blue line indicates actual direct atmospheric measurements. The colored dots indicate data gathered from ice cores; each color represents a different ice core sampling site. Data from Robert A. Rohde and the ...................................................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 3.2.3. Observed and projected CO 2 emission growth rates in percent per year (McMullen and Jabbour, 2009; Raupach et al., 2007). .......................................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 3.2.4. Global analysis of reef area affected by thermal stress, by region and globally, during the years 1998– 2007. .................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 3.2.5. The impacts of ocean warming on various coral life history stages, including adult mortality, fecundity, and fragmentation, fertilization, pelagic planula, settlement, polyp development, and juvenile growth. ............ 30 Figure 3.2.6. Global map of reef areas affected by thermal stress during the years 1998–2007. ...................................... 31 Figure 3.2.7. Global map of reef areas expected to suffer coral bleaching from thermal stress during the decades of the 2030s and 2050s. ................................................................................................................................................. 33 xi
Page 1 and 2: NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS‐PI
Page 3 and 4: Pacific Islands Fisheries Science C
Page 5 and 6: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many subject matter
Page 7 and 8: CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ..........
Page 9 and 10: 5.5 Assessing the Critical Risk Thr
Page 11: 7.11 Genus Porites ................
Page 15 and 16: Figure 3.3.6. The impacts of diseas
Page 17 and 18: Figure 6.5.3. Distribution of point
Page 19 and 20: Figure 7.5.10. Distribution of poin
Page 23 and 24: Figure 7.6.8. Distribution of point
Page 25 and 26: Figure 7.9.28. Montipora verrilli d
Page 27 and 28: Figure 7.13.7. Leptoseris yabei dis
Page 29 and 30: Figure 7.18.12. Distribution of poi
Page 33 and 34: ACRONYMS AAAS AGGRA AIMS AR4 BRT CA
Page 35 and 36: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On October 20, 20
Page 37 and 38: Figure ES-2. Summary of votes talli
Page 39 and 40: xxxvii
Page 41 and 42: 1. INTRODUCTION On October 20, 2009
Page 43 and 44: The NMFS must base its determinatio
Page 45 and 46: 2. GENERAL BACKGROUND ON CORALS AND
Page 47 and 48: as some of the Hawaiian Montipora a
Page 49 and 50: Figure 2.2.1. Diversity of coral li
Page 51 and 52: on zooplankton can reduce the uptak
Page 53 and 54: provide net economic benefits of $3
Page 55 and 56: In some locations, such as Hawaiì,
Page 57 and 58: Table 2.5.1. Summary of regional co
Page 59 and 60: 3. THREATS TO CORAL SPECIES 3.1 Hum
Page 61 and 62: Figure 3.1.1. World population from
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2,500 People per km 2 Reef Area 2,0
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3.2 Global Climate Change and Large
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1980), more recent work indicates t
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forces put into place by anthropoge
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3.2.2.1 Coral bleaching High temper
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Figure 3.2.7. Global map of reef ar
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Figure 3.2.8. Predicted phytoplankt
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The dynamics of carbonate chemistry
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Figure 3.2.14. (Top and middle rows
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other branching corals (Langdon and
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Species Lophelia pertusa (cold wate
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3.2.3.2. Increased erosion Another
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as sea-level rise proceeds. Greater
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Figure 3.2.19. The impacts of chang
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ecosystems (Garrison et al., 2003).
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chemicals such as pesticides. Eleva
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Figure 3.3.1. The impacts of sedime
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1999; Thacker et al., 2001) because
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Other demonstrated sublethal effect
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3.3.1.4 Salinity impacts Many coral
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Some evidence show that seawater sa
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Figure 3.3.6. The impacts of diseas
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Figure 3.3.7. The impacts of predat
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Important synergies of corallivory
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facilitates coral recruitment), and
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The recent Reefs at Risk Revisited
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eplenish themselves from distant po
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eview, the BRT considers tsunami an
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Figure 3.3.12. Global analysis of r
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Auàu Channel is a thermocline, a d
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A very recent independent global an
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Unapparent effects are another comp
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4. DEMOGRAPHIC AND SPATIAL FACTORS
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the same environmental threats (e.g
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in identifying species in the field
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4.5.1 Critical Risk Threshold and d
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Figure 4.5.2. Number of successful
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(Rasher and Hay, 2010) and can redu
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5. METHODS 5.1 Overview In evaluati
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5.6 BRT Voting To estimate the like
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In establishing the approaches used
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Figure 6.1.2. Agaricia lamarcki dis
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Acidification: No specific research
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6.2 Genus Mycetophyllia (Family Mus
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Mycetophyllia ferox cover to be con
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6.3 Genus Dendrogyra (Family Meandr
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Depth range: Dendrogyra cylindrus h
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Risk Assessment Figure 6.3.5. Distr
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Evolutionary and geologic history:
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Disease: Dichocoenia stokesi has be
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6.5 Genus Montastraea (Family Favii
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Figure 6.5. Examples of declining a
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genetic variability in the molecula
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6.5.1 Montastraea faveolata Ellis a
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Figure 6.5.5. Montastraea franksi d
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6.5.3 Montastraea annularis Ellis a
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Risk Assessment Figure 6.5.10. Dist
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Figure 7.1.2. Millepora foveolata d
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Family: Milleporidae. Evolutionary
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Land-based sources of pollution (LB
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7.2 Genus Heliopora (Class Anthozoa
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Within federally protected waters,
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7.3 Genus Pocillopora (Class Anthoz
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Acidification: One recent study (Ma
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Figure 7.3.2. Pocillopora danae dis
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Predation: Pocillopora species are
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7.3.2 Pocillopora elegans Dana, 186
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Within federally protected waters,
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Risk Assessment The nominal candida
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Central and Indo-Pacific Pocillopor
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Figure 7.4.3. Seriatopora aculeata
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Life History Acropora are sessile c
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drop out (Randall and Birkeland, 19
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Island in the southeastern Pacific
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Figure 7.5.8. Acropora acuminata di
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Taxonomy Taxonomic issues: None. Fa
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Although range expansion was not di
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7.5.4 Acropora dendrum Bassett-Smit
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Life History Acropora dendrum is a
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7.5.5 Acropora donei Veron and Wall
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7.5.6 Acropora globiceps Dana, 1846
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Life History Acropora globiceps is
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7.5.7 Acropora horrida Dana 1846 Fi
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Life History Acropora horrida is a
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7.5.8 Acropora jacquelineae Wallace
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Abundance Abundance of Acropora hor
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7.5.9 Acropora listeri Brook, 1893
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Life History Acropora listeri is a
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7.5.10 Acropora lokani Wallace, 199
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Life History Acropora lokani is ass
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7.5.11 Acropora microclados Ehrenbe
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Threats For each of these possible
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7.5.12 Acropora palmerae Wells, 195
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Life History Acropora palmerae is a
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7.5.13 Acropora paniculata Verrill,
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Abundance Abundance of Acropora pan
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7.5.14 Acropora pharaonis Milne Edw
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Abundance Abundance of Acropora pha
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7.5.15 Acropora polystoma Brook, 18
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7.5.16. Acropora retusa Dana, 1846
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7.5.16 Acropora rudis Rehberg, 1892
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et al., 2009). While ocean acidific
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7.5.17 Acropora speciosa Quelch, 18
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7.5.18 Acropora striata Verrill, 18
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7.5.19 Acropora tenella Brook, 1892
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Disease: In general, Acropora speci
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7.5.20 Acropora vaughani Wells, 195
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7.5.21 Acropora verweyi Veron and W
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A search of published and unpublish
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Factors that increase the potential
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Figure 7.6.3. Anacropora puertogale
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Risk assessment Figure 7.6.4. Distr
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Figure 7.6.7. Anacropora spinosa di
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Figure 7.7.3. Astreopora cucullata
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Isopora has recently been considere
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7.8.2 Isopora cuneata Dana, 1846 Fi
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U.S. Distribution According to both
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Life History Of the 35 species of M
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Figure 7.9.3. Montipora angulata di
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Figure 7.9.7. Montipora australiens
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Global Distribution Global distribu
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Figure 7.9.15. Montipora caliculata
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Taxonomy Taxonomic issues: Importan
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7.9.6 Montipora lobulata Bernard, 1
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(Albright et al., 2010) and is like
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7.9.7 Montipora patula (/verrili) B
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Threats Thermal stress: Montipora s
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7.10 Genus Alveopora (Family Poriti
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Life History Reproductive character
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7.10.2 Alveopora fenestrata Lamarck
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Threats Temperature stress: The gen
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7.10.3 Alveopora verrilliana Dana,
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Life History Alveopora verrilliana
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7.11 Genus Porites 7.11.1 Porites h
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Threats Temperature stress: Massive
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7.11.2 Porites napopora Veron, 2000
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Habitat Habitat: Porites napopora h
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7.11.3 Porites nigrescens Dana, 184
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of all other Porites species studie
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7.11.4 Porites pukoensis Vaughan, 1
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Life History The reproductive chara
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Risk Assessment of Porites clade 1
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7.12 Genus Psammocora (Family Sider
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Abundance Abundance of Psammocora s
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7.13 Genus Leptoseris (Family Agari
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7.13.2 Leptoseris yabei Pillai and
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7.14 Genus Pachyseris 7.14.1 Pachys
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ased on elevated temperatures and l
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7.15 Genus Pavona 7.15.1 Pavona bip
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Threats Temperature stress: Pavona
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7.15.2 Pavona cactus Forskål, 1775
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Life History Pavona cactus is a gon
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7.15.3 Pavona decussata Dana, 1846
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7.15.4 Pavona diffluens Lamarck, 18
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Threats Temperature stress: Pavona
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7.15.5 Pavona venosa (Ehrenberg, 18
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7.16 Genus Galaxea (Family Oculinid
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Abundance Galaxea astreata can be a
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7.17 Genus Pectinia (Family Pectini
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Acidification: Pectinia alcicornis
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7.18 Genus Acanthastrea (Family Mus
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Abundance Abundance of Acanthastrea
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7.18.2 Acanthastrea hemprichii Ehre
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7.18.3 Acanthastrea ishigakiensis V
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7.18.4 Acanthastrea regularis Veron
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Although specific larval descriptio
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7.19 Genus Barabattoia (Family Favi
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Threats Temperature stress: Unknown
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7.20 Genus Caulastrea 7.20.1 Caulas
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Threats Thermal stress: Unknown, bu
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7.21 Genus Cyphastrea 7.21.1 Cyphas
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Threats Thermal stress: The genus C
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7.21.2 Cyphastrea ocellina Dana, 18
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skeletal deposition is reduced unde
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7.22 Genus Euphyllia (Family Caryop
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Bruckner and Hill, 2009) and eviden
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7.22.2 Euphyllia paraancora Veron,
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Threats Thermal stress: Euphyllia p
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7.22.3 Euphyllia paradivisa Veron,
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Threats Thermal stress: Euphyllia s
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7.23 Genus Physogyra 7.23.1 Physogy
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al., 2007; Silverman et al., 2009).
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7.24 Genus Turbinaria (Family Dendr
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Threats Thermal stress: Bleaching i
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7.24.2 Turbinaria peltata (Esper, 1
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Acidification: A congener Turbinari
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7.24.3 Turbinaria reniformis Bernar
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Threats Thermal stress: Bleaching i
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7.24.4 Turbinaria stellulata Lamarc
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8. SYNTHESIS OF RISK ASSESSMENTS: T
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459
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Figure 8.2. Number of coral species
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Albright, R., Mason B., and Langdon
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Baggett, L. S., and Bright T. J. 19
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Bellwood, D., Hoey A., and Choat J.
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Brodie, J., Fabricius K., De'ath G.
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Carilli, J. E., Norris R. D., Black
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Coffroth, M. A. 1985. Mucus sheet f
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Cox, E. F. 1986. The effects of a s
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DESA, U. N. 2001. World Population
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Eakin, C. M., Feingold J. S., and G
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Feingold, J. S. 1996. Coral survivo
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Gardella, D. J., and Edmunds P. J.
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Glynn, P. W., Colley S. B., Ting J.
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Grover, R., Maguer J., Allemand D.,
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Hawkins, J. P., and Roberts C. M. 1
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Hubbard, D. K. 1992. Hurricane-indu
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Isdale, P. J., Stewart B. J., Tickl
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Kennedy, C. J., Gassman N. J., and
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Lafferty, K. D., Porter J. W., and
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Lindahl, U. 2003. Coral reef rehabi
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Maragos, J. E. 1993. Impact of coas
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McCormick, M. I. 2003. Consumption
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Morse, D. E., Morse A. N. C., Raimo
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Nugues, M., Delvoye L., and Bak R.
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Petit, J. R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D.
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Randall, C. J., and Szmant A. M. 20
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Riegl, B. 1996. Hermatypic coral fa
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Rotjan, R. 2007. The patterns, caus
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Siddall, M., Rohling E. J., Almogi-
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Streamer, M. 1980. Urea and arginin
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Titlyanov, E. A., and Latypov Y. Y.
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Venn, A. A., Quinn J., Jones R., an
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Ward, S. 1992. Evidence for broadca
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Williams, I.D., Walsh W., Schroeder
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Yost, D. M., Jones R. J., and Mitch
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Errata Erroneous references: IPCC.
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APPENDIX: Millepora boschmai (De We
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According to de Weerdt and Glynn (1
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The overall likelihood that Millepo
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Glynn, P. W., J. L. Mate, A. C. Bak
Page 581:
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