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SE SEFSC SERO SRES SST UK UN UNEP UNESCO USA USFWS USGS USVI UV WDCGG Standard Error Southeast Fisheries Science Center Southeast Regional Office Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Sea Surface Temperature United Kingdom United Nations United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization United States of America United States Fish and Wildlife Service United States Geological Service United States Virgin Islands Ultraviolet World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases xxxii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On October 20, 2009, the Center for Biological Diversity petitioned the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to list 83 coral species as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The petition was based on a predicted decline in available habitat for the species, citing anthropogenic climate change and ocean acidification as the lead factors among the various stressors responsible for the potential decline. The NMFS identified 82 of the corals as candidate species, finding that the petition provided substantive information for a potential listing of these species. The NMFS established a Biological Review Team (BRT) to prepare this Status Review Report that examines the status of these 82 candidate coral species and evaluates extinction risk for each of them. This document makes no recommendations for listing, as that is a separate evaluation to be conducted by the NMFS. The BRT considered two major factors in conducting this review. The first factor was the interaction of natural phenomena and anthropogenic stressors that could potentially contribute to coral extinction. After extensive review of available scientific information, the BRT considers ocean warming, disease, and ocean acidification to be the most influential threats in posing extinction risks to the 82 candidate coral species between now and the year 2100. Threats of local origin but having widespread impact, such as sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and fishing, were considered of medium importance in determining extinction risks. It is acknowledged that many other threats (e.g., physical damage from storms or ship groundings, invasive species or predator outbreaks, collection and trade) also negatively affect corals, often acutely and dramatically, but generally at relatively small local scales. These local threats were considered to be of limited scope and not deemed to contribute appreciably to the risk of species extinction, except in those special cases where species have restricted geographic or habitat ranges or species have already undergone precipitous population declines such that these local threats further contribute to depensatory processes that can magnify extinction risks (e.g., feedback-loops whereby individual survival decreases with smaller population size). The BRT acknowledges that local and global threats operate on different time scales and, though there is high confidence in the general progression of some key global threats, such as ocean warming and ocean acidification, there is much less certainty in the timing and spatial patterns of these threats. There is also substantial uncertainty in the abilities of the 82 candidate coral species to tolerate or adapt to each of the threats examined, as well as uncertainty in the dynamics of multiple simultaneous stresses. The BRT specifically identified increasing human population levels and the intensity of their collective human consumption as the root drivers of almost all global and local threats to coral species. In evaluating future threat impacts, the BRT attempted to project current trends, without assumptions of future policy changes or technological advances that could potentially alter the projections used in this analysis. The second major factor was the fundamental ecological character of each candidate coral species—particularly life history, taxonomy, and abundance. Corals have complex life cycles and a taxonomy based on variable skeletal morphologies. Both of these complicate assessment of species status and extinction risk. Planktonic larval phases, cryptic settlement, long post-settlement periods with high mortality, and external fertilization are characteristics of many coral species. A lack of adequate data on many aspects of life history makes it difficult to determine the population dynamics of corals throughout their ranges with confidence. In addition, the increasing availability of genetic analyses of coral populations in many cases calls into question the morphology-based classifications traditionally used to separate nominal coral species. Even if species are assumed to be identifiable in the field, it is often difficult to distinguish separate colonies, and there is no way to distinguish genetic individuals in the field (i.e., many colonies may be genetically identical clones). These limitations make it challenging to assess accurate population demographics for most species. Coral reef monitoring data offer some insights, but are often reported at the genus level or are not optimized for relatively rare species. As a result of these demographic and monitoring limitations, species-level abundance and trend data were virtually non-existent for most of the 82 candidate coral species under consideration. In the absence of species-specific abundance and trend information, BRT members relied heavily upon the best available information on the spatial extent of the species ranges and on their understanding of the likely impacts of the suite of threats on each of the individual coral populations over the period until 2100. The lack of adequate information on complex coral ecology and interactions between threats made the assessment of extinction risk for each of the 82 nominal coral species extremely challenging and uncertain. The BRT chose to evaluate extinction risk as the likelihood of a species status falling below a Critical Risk Threshold by the year 2100, a time frame over which climate projections are readily available and have been sufficiently vetted through extensive scientific peer review to be deemed to have reasonable reliability. The Critical Risk Threshold xxxiii
Page 1 and 2: NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS‐PI
Page 3 and 4: Pacific Islands Fisheries Science C
Page 5 and 6: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many subject matter
Page 7 and 8: CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ..........
Page 9 and 10: 5.5 Assessing the Critical Risk Thr
Page 11 and 12: 7.11 Genus Porites ................
Page 13 and 14: LIST OF FIGURES Figure ES-1. Exampl
Page 15 and 16: Figure 3.3.6. The impacts of diseas
Page 17 and 18: Figure 6.5.3. Distribution of point
Page 19 and 20: Figure 7.5.10. Distribution of poin
Page 23 and 24: Figure 7.6.8. Distribution of point
Page 25 and 26: Figure 7.9.28. Montipora verrilli d
Page 27 and 28: Figure 7.13.7. Leptoseris yabei dis
Page 29 and 30: Figure 7.18.12. Distribution of poi
Page 33: ACRONYMS AAAS AGGRA AIMS AR4 BRT CA
Page 37 and 38: Figure ES-2. Summary of votes talli
Page 39 and 40: xxxvii
Page 41 and 42: 1. INTRODUCTION On October 20, 2009
Page 43 and 44: The NMFS must base its determinatio
Page 45 and 46: 2. GENERAL BACKGROUND ON CORALS AND
Page 47 and 48: as some of the Hawaiian Montipora a
Page 49 and 50: Figure 2.2.1. Diversity of coral li
Page 51 and 52: on zooplankton can reduce the uptak
Page 53 and 54: provide net economic benefits of $3
Page 55 and 56: In some locations, such as Hawai`i,
Page 57 and 58: Table 2.5.1. Summary of regional co
Page 59 and 60: 3. THREATS TO CORAL SPECIES 3.1 Hum
Page 61 and 62: Figure 3.1.1. World population from
Page 63 and 64: 2,500 People per km 2 Reef Area 2,0
Page 65 and 66: 3.2 Global Climate Change and Large
Page 67 and 68: 1980), more recent work indicates t
Page 69 and 70: forces put into place by anthropoge
Page 71 and 72: 3.2.2.1 Coral bleaching High temper
Page 73 and 74: Figure 3.2.7. Global map of reef ar
Page 75 and 76: Figure 3.2.8. Predicted phytoplankt
Page 77 and 78: The dynamics of carbonate chemistry
Page 79 and 80: Figure 3.2.14. (Top and middle rows
Page 81 and 82: other branching corals (Langdon and
Page 83 and 84: Species Lophelia pertusa (cold wate
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3.2.3.2. Increased erosion Another
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as sea-level rise proceeds. Greater
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Figure 3.2.19. The impacts of chang
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ecosystems (Garrison et al., 2003).
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chemicals such as pesticides. Eleva
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Figure 3.3.1. The impacts of sedime
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1999; Thacker et al., 2001) because
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Other demonstrated sublethal effect
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3.3.1.4 Salinity impacts Many coral
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Some evidence show that seawater sa
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Figure 3.3.6. The impacts of diseas
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Figure 3.3.7. The impacts of predat
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Important synergies of corallivory
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facilitates coral recruitment), and
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The recent Reefs at Risk Revisited
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eplenish themselves from distant po
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eview, the BRT considers tsunami an
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Figure 3.3.12. Global analysis of r
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Au`au Channel is a thermocline, a d
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A very recent independent global an
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Unapparent effects are another comp
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4. DEMOGRAPHIC AND SPATIAL FACTORS
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the same environmental threats (e.g
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in identifying species in the field
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4.5.1 Critical Risk Threshold and d
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Figure 4.5.2. Number of successful
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(Rasher and Hay, 2010) and can redu
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5. METHODS 5.1 Overview In evaluati
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5.6 BRT Voting To estimate the like
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In establishing the approaches used
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Figure 6.1.2. Agaricia lamarcki dis
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Acidification: No specific research
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6.2 Genus Mycetophyllia (Family Mus
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Mycetophyllia ferox cover to be con
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6.3 Genus Dendrogyra (Family Meandr
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Depth range: Dendrogyra cylindrus h
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Risk Assessment Figure 6.3.5. Distr
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Evolutionary and geologic history:
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Disease: Dichocoenia stokesi has be
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6.5 Genus Montastraea (Family Favii
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Figure 6.5. Examples of declining a
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genetic variability in the molecula
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6.5.1 Montastraea faveolata Ellis a
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Figure 6.5.5. Montastraea franksi d
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6.5.3 Montastraea annularis Ellis a
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Risk Assessment Figure 6.5.10. Dist
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Figure 7.1.2. Millepora foveolata d
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Family: Milleporidae. Evolutionary
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Land-based sources of pollution (LB
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7.2 Genus Heliopora (Class Anthozoa
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Within federally protected waters,
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7.3 Genus Pocillopora (Class Anthoz
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Acidification: One recent study (Ma
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Figure 7.3.2. Pocillopora danae dis
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Predation: Pocillopora species are
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7.3.2 Pocillopora elegans Dana, 186
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Within federally protected waters,
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Risk Assessment The nominal candida
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Central and Indo-Pacific Pocillopor
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Figure 7.4.3. Seriatopora aculeata
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Life History Acropora are sessile c
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drop out (Randall and Birkeland, 19
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Island in the southeastern Pacific
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Figure 7.5.8. Acropora acuminata di
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Taxonomy Taxonomic issues: None. Fa
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Although range expansion was not di
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7.5.4 Acropora dendrum Bassett-Smit
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Life History Acropora dendrum is a
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7.5.5 Acropora donei Veron and Wall
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7.5.6 Acropora globiceps Dana, 1846
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Life History Acropora globiceps is
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7.5.7 Acropora horrida Dana 1846 Fi
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Life History Acropora horrida is a
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7.5.8 Acropora jacquelineae Wallace
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Abundance Abundance of Acropora hor
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7.5.9 Acropora listeri Brook, 1893
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Life History Acropora listeri is a
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7.5.10 Acropora lokani Wallace, 199
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Life History Acropora lokani is ass
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7.5.11 Acropora microclados Ehrenbe
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Threats For each of these possible
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7.5.12 Acropora palmerae Wells, 195
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Life History Acropora palmerae is a
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7.5.13 Acropora paniculata Verrill,
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Abundance Abundance of Acropora pan
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7.5.14 Acropora pharaonis Milne Edw
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Abundance Abundance of Acropora pha
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7.5.15 Acropora polystoma Brook, 18
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7.5.16. Acropora retusa Dana, 1846
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7.5.16 Acropora rudis Rehberg, 1892
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et al., 2009). While ocean acidific
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7.5.17 Acropora speciosa Quelch, 18
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7.5.18 Acropora striata Verrill, 18
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7.5.19 Acropora tenella Brook, 1892
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Disease: In general, Acropora speci
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7.5.20 Acropora vaughani Wells, 195
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7.5.21 Acropora verweyi Veron and W
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A search of published and unpublish
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Factors that increase the potential
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Figure 7.6.3. Anacropora puertogale
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Risk assessment Figure 7.6.4. Distr
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Figure 7.6.7. Anacropora spinosa di
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Figure 7.7.3. Astreopora cucullata
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Isopora has recently been considere
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7.8.2 Isopora cuneata Dana, 1846 Fi
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U.S. Distribution According to both
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Life History Of the 35 species of M
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Figure 7.9.3. Montipora angulata di
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Page 335 and 336:
Figure 7.9.7. Montipora australiens
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Global Distribution Global distribu
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Page 343 and 344:
Figure 7.9.15. Montipora caliculata
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Taxonomy Taxonomic issues: Importan
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7.9.6 Montipora lobulata Bernard, 1
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(Albright et al., 2010) and is like
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7.9.7 Montipora patula (/verrili) B
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Threats Thermal stress: Montipora s
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7.10 Genus Alveopora (Family Poriti
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Life History Reproductive character
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7.10.2 Alveopora fenestrata Lamarck
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Threats Temperature stress: The gen
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7.10.3 Alveopora verrilliana Dana,
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Life History Alveopora verrilliana
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7.11 Genus Porites 7.11.1 Porites h
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Threats Temperature stress: Massive
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7.11.2 Porites napopora Veron, 2000
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Habitat Habitat: Porites napopora h
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7.11.3 Porites nigrescens Dana, 184
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of all other Porites species studie
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7.11.4 Porites pukoensis Vaughan, 1
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Life History The reproductive chara
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Risk Assessment of Porites clade 1
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7.12 Genus Psammocora (Family Sider
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Abundance Abundance of Psammocora s
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7.13 Genus Leptoseris (Family Agari
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7.13.2 Leptoseris yabei Pillai and
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7.14 Genus Pachyseris 7.14.1 Pachys
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ased on elevated temperatures and l
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7.15 Genus Pavona 7.15.1 Pavona bip
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Threats Temperature stress: Pavona
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7.15.2 Pavona cactus Forskål, 1775
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Life History Pavona cactus is a gon
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7.15.3 Pavona decussata Dana, 1846
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7.15.4 Pavona diffluens Lamarck, 18
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Threats Temperature stress: Pavona
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7.15.5 Pavona venosa (Ehrenberg, 18
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7.16 Genus Galaxea (Family Oculinid
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Abundance Galaxea astreata can be a
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7.17 Genus Pectinia (Family Pectini
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Acidification: Pectinia alcicornis
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7.18 Genus Acanthastrea (Family Mus
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Abundance Abundance of Acanthastrea
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7.18.2 Acanthastrea hemprichii Ehre
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7.18.3 Acanthastrea ishigakiensis V
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7.18.4 Acanthastrea regularis Veron
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Although specific larval descriptio
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7.19 Genus Barabattoia (Family Favi
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Threats Temperature stress: Unknown
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7.20 Genus Caulastrea 7.20.1 Caulas
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Threats Thermal stress: Unknown, bu
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7.21 Genus Cyphastrea 7.21.1 Cyphas
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Threats Thermal stress: The genus C
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7.21.2 Cyphastrea ocellina Dana, 18
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skeletal deposition is reduced unde
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7.22 Genus Euphyllia (Family Caryop
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Bruckner and Hill, 2009) and eviden
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7.22.2 Euphyllia paraancora Veron,
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Threats Thermal stress: Euphyllia p
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7.22.3 Euphyllia paradivisa Veron,
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Threats Thermal stress: Euphyllia s
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7.23 Genus Physogyra 7.23.1 Physogy
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al., 2007; Silverman et al., 2009).
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7.24 Genus Turbinaria (Family Dendr
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Threats Thermal stress: Bleaching i
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7.24.2 Turbinaria peltata (Esper, 1
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Acidification: A congener Turbinari
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7.24.3 Turbinaria reniformis Bernar
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Threats Thermal stress: Bleaching i
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7.24.4 Turbinaria stellulata Lamarc
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8. SYNTHESIS OF RISK ASSESSMENTS: T
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459
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Figure 8.2. Number of coral species
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Albright, R., Mason B., and Langdon
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Baggett, L. S., and Bright T. J. 19
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Bellwood, D., Hoey A., and Choat J.
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Brodie, J., Fabricius K., De'ath G.
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Carilli, J. E., Norris R. D., Black
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Coffroth, M. A. 1985. Mucus sheet f
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Cox, E. F. 1986. The effects of a s
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DESA, U. N. 2001. World Population
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Eakin, C. M., Feingold J. S., and G
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Feingold, J. S. 1996. Coral survivo
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Gardella, D. J., and Edmunds P. J.
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Glynn, P. W., Colley S. B., Ting J.
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Grover, R., Maguer J., Allemand D.,
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Hawkins, J. P., and Roberts C. M. 1
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Hubbard, D. K. 1992. Hurricane-indu
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Isdale, P. J., Stewart B. J., Tickl
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Kennedy, C. J., Gassman N. J., and
Page 537 and 538:
Lafferty, K. D., Porter J. W., and
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Lindahl, U. 2003. Coral reef rehabi
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Maragos, J. E. 1993. Impact of coas
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McCormick, M. I. 2003. Consumption
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Morse, D. E., Morse A. N. C., Raimo
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Nugues, M., Delvoye L., and Bak R.
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Petit, J. R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D.
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Randall, C. J., and Szmant A. M. 20
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Riegl, B. 1996. Hermatypic coral fa
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Rotjan, R. 2007. The patterns, caus
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Siddall, M., Rohling E. J., Almogi-
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Streamer, M. 1980. Urea and arginin
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Titlyanov, E. A., and Latypov Y. Y.
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Venn, A. A., Quinn J., Jones R., an
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Ward, S. 1992. Evidence for broadca
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Williams, I.D., Walsh W., Schroeder
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Yost, D. M., Jones R. J., and Mitch
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Errata Erroneous references: IPCC.
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APPENDIX: Millepora boschmai (De We
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According to de Weerdt and Glynn (1
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The overall likelihood that Millepo
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Glynn, P. W., J. L. Mate, A. C. Bak
Page 581:
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