LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK - CIPD
LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK - CIPD
LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK - CIPD
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<strong>LABOUR</strong> <strong>MARKET</strong> <strong>OUTLOOK</strong><br />
Along with ‘ability to pay’, ‘inflation’ and ‘productivity and<br />
performance’ remain important determinants of pay increases,<br />
though ‘recruitment and retention’ has decreased in importance<br />
since the summer quarter (Figure 13).<br />
Figure 12: Average predicted annual pay awards (mean), by sector (%)<br />
Base: All planning to have a pay review before August 2012 (all n=356, public n=107, private n=211, voluntary n=38)<br />
4<br />
3<br />
3.11<br />
Voluntary sector<br />
Private sector<br />
Public sector<br />
Overall net<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
–1<br />
1.62 1.60<br />
1.58 1.55<br />
1.45 1.53<br />
1.23 1.44<br />
Summer<br />
09<br />
Autumn<br />
09<br />
1.99<br />
1.47<br />
0.92<br />
1.99<br />
1.59<br />
2.29<br />
1.46<br />
0.76<br />
0.25<br />
UT<br />
0.79<br />
Winter<br />
09–10<br />
0.98<br />
1.13<br />
Spring<br />
10<br />
1.87<br />
1.52<br />
0.72<br />
Summer<br />
10<br />
Figure 13: Main cause of the expected increase in salaries (%)<br />
Base: All expecting a pay increase<br />
Organisation’s ability to pay<br />
Productivity and performance<br />
Inflation<br />
The ‘going rate’ of pay rises elsewhere<br />
Recruitment and retention issues<br />
Movement in market rates<br />
Pay catch-up following modest pay<br />
increases/freezes/cuts in recent years<br />
Union/staff pressures<br />
National minimum wage<br />
Other<br />
National living wage<br />
Level of government funding/pay guidelines<br />
Shareholder views<br />
2<br />
3<br />
3<br />
8<br />
8<br />
8<br />
7<br />
6<br />
6<br />
7<br />
0 20<br />
22<br />
22<br />
20<br />
18<br />
17<br />
22<br />
30<br />
30<br />
27<br />
Autumn<br />
10<br />
39<br />
38<br />
36<br />
40<br />
45<br />
2.25 2.21<br />
2.06<br />
1.27<br />
0.74<br />
–0.33<br />
Winter<br />
10–11<br />
48<br />
Percentage<br />
54 58<br />
1.56<br />
1.41<br />
0.49<br />
Spring<br />
11<br />
1.45<br />
1.37<br />
0.35<br />
Summer<br />
11<br />
Autumn 2011 (n=206)<br />
Summer 2011 (n=252)<br />
2.07<br />
1.48<br />
1.37<br />
0.31<br />
Autumn<br />
11<br />
60 80 100<br />
cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 13
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