Resource Loading Scenarios

MPAR Operational Scenarios
March 5, 2013
Mark Weadon
AvMet Applications

Purpose of Operational Scenarios
• Provide realistic depictions of actual weather and
surveillance target loading on a multi-function phased
array radar under stressful conditions at a large airport
• The Notional Functional Requirements provide
specifications of what terminal weather and airport
surveillance radars must do independently
• The key to multi-functionality is a phased array radar that
is engineered to meet the demands of surveillance and
weather simultaneously
• Most effective way to describe such demands to develop
a use case scenario under difficult circumstances: i.e.,
heavy air traffic coupled with complex weather

Target Loading within a Single Field of
View
MPAR

Target Loading within a Single Field of
View
MPAR

Target Loading within a Single Field of
View
MPAR

Operational Scenario – Convective
Outbreak
• O’Hare International Airport (ORD), 23 June, 2010
• Summer weekday (Wednesday) at extremely busy hub
• Mid-afternoon line of convection developed quickly,
swept across airport in late afternoon at time of peak
scheduled in air traffic, causing numerous delays and
reroutes for inbound flights
• Solid line convection with ET>45K ft; VIP >60dBz;
numerous MBs within the Chicago TRACON area; hail
and tornados reported to south of ORD
• Very demanding scenario in terms of weather and
aircraft target loading on a single MPAR

Methodology
• Day selected based on balancing factors: peak operations time at a
large hub; significant weather, yet not so bad as to completely
shutdown the airport
Such situation was assumed to represent the sternest challenge
for radar resource allocation: many aircraft and convective
targets in the same airspace
• Once a candidate day/time selected, Weather Analysis and
Visualization Environment (WAVE) used to develop graphics and
analysis of actual traffic counts
WAVE uses data feeds from Air Surveillance Data for Industry
(ASDI) for airborne targets, temporally and spatially correlating
with gridded weather diagnostics such as the National
Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD)
Aircraft counts at 5min intervals within 60nm radius of ORD

Maximum Impact – 6/23/10 2300Z

O’Hare – Microburst and Gust Fronts
Microbursts
2240Z

Severe Wx
2326Z
29nm

O’Hare Entire Domain
140
Small Aircraft Mid-sized Aircraft Large Aircraft NCWD Coverage
70%
120
Start of Animation
End of Animation
60%
Aircraft Count
100
80
60
40
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
20
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

O’Hare Southeast Sector (90° -180°)
Aircraft
NCWD Coverage
50
100%
45
90%
Aircraft Count
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
5
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Further Enhancements Planned
• Provide full track data on all aircraft within 60nm and
250nm radius of O’Hare: location, altitude, speed,
heading, aircraft type
• Provide detailed ground clutter map
• Include non-cooperative GAs and UASs
• Welcome input from industry for further enhancements to
the scenario

Backup

Pre-impact – 6/23/10 1851Z

Convection Building – 6/23/10 2108Z

Post-impact – 6/24/10 0314Z

Chicago: Northeast Region
Aircraft
NCWD Coverage
50
100%
45
90%
Aircraft Count
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
5
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Chicago: Northwest Region
Aircraft
NCWD Coverage
50
100%
45
90%
Aircraft Count
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
5
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Chicago: Southwest Region
Aircraft
NCWD Coverage
50
100%
45
90%
Aircraft Count
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
5
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Chicago: Entire Domain
Aircraft
NCWD Coverage
140
Start of Animation
End of Animation
70%
120
60%
Aircraft Count
100
80
60
40
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
20
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Methodology

Scenario #1 – O’Hare International
Airport (ORD) 23-24 June 2010
• Wednesday afternoon/night at an extremely busy hub
• Mid-afternoon line of convection developed quickly to west,
swept across airport in late afternoon at time of peak
scheduled in air traffic, causing numerous delays and
reroutes for inbound flights
• Solid line convection with echo tops>45K ft; VIP >60dBz;
numerous microbursts within the Chicago TRACON area;
hail and tornados reported to south of ORD

21 km

Pre-impact – 6/23/10 2020Z

Convection Building – 6/23/10 2120Z

Maximum Impact – 6/23/10 2300Z

Severe
Weather
23 June,
2326Z
53 km

Post-impact – 6/24/10 0340Z

Animation
Animation shown here

Aircraft Count
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Chicago: Entire Domain
Small Aircraft Mid-sized Aircraft Large Aircraft NCWD Coverage
Start of Animation
End of Animation
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Chicago: Northeast Region
Aircraft
NCWD Coverage
50
100%
45
90%
Aircraft Count
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
5
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Chicago: Northwest Region
Aircraft
NCWD Coverage
50
100%
45
90%
Aircraft Count
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
5
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Chicago: Southeast Region
Aircraft
NCWD Coverage
50
100%
45
90%
Aircraft Count
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
5
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Chicago: Southwest Region
Aircraft
NCWD Coverage
50
100%
45
90%
Aircraft Count
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percentage NCWD Coverage
5
10%
0
6/23/2010
0:00
6/23/2010
4:00
6/23/2010
8:00
6/23/2010
12:00
6/23/2010
16:00
GMT Time
6/23/2010
20:00
6/24/2010
0:00
6/24/2010
4:00
0%

Conclusions
• Each multi-function radar face is assumed to operate
independently-- most stressful scenario for the MPAR is,
by definition, the one that appears within the field of view
of any one of its faces.
• Convective activity and aircraft counts are, roughly
speaking, inversely related.
• The multi-function radar must be agile and have
sufficient radar resources to track aircraft and weather
(including severe weather and microbursts)
simultaneously in the same sector.
• Other, unforeseen factors may drive radar resource use
even higher: i.e., non-cooperative aircraft requiring
intensive tracking

Way Ahead
• Operational scenarios for enroute airspace as well
as terminal
• Beef up scenarios to point where they can support a
loading model for radar engineers to design against
• More meteorological needed detail than NCWD reflectivity bins
• Scenarios need to depict the full range of weather conditions addressed
in MPAR requirements: all levels of NWCD/NWS coverage (not just levels
>=3), ground and air clutter, non-precipitation clutter, liquid water levels,
snow, ice, hail, other frozen precipitation, wind, microbursts, and mesocylcones
• What is needed is not only the time required to detect weather and aircraft
events, but also the time required to report the detections

THANK YOU