Analysis of Alternatives

This Briefing is Classified
UNCLASSIFIED
Analysis of Alternatives
(AoA)
Brian Lihani
Deputy Chief, Aerospace Warning Branch
HQ NORAD/J35W
11 May 2011

Purpose of Analysis of Alternatives (AoA)
• Evaluate performance, operational effectiveness,
operational suitability, and estimated costs of alternative
systems to meet a mission capability
• Assess advantages and disadvantages of alternatives
being considered to satisfy capabilities. Includes
sensitivity of each alternative to possible changes in key
assumptions or variables
• A key input to defining system capabilities in the
Capability Development Document
Bottom line
Conduct analysis to determine the best solution
based on cost, risk, and capability
2

UNCLASSIFIED
What determines an AoA is required?
• DoDI 5000.02 implies that AoAs are mandatory for all
programs
• In reality, the true driver is statutory requirements where
AoAs are mandatory for:
• All potential and designated Acquisition Category (ACAT) I
efforts
• ACAT-I: Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP)
• 10 USC § 2366a & b: Milestone Certifications to Congress
• ACAT-IA: Major Automated Information System (MAIS)
• 40 USC § 1401 et seq.: Clinger-Cohen Act (CCA) of 1996
• PL 107-248 § 8808: CCA Compliance & MAIS Funding
• Can be designated ACAT I / IA if “JROC Interest” – for programs
where the capabilities have a significant impact on joint
warfighting or have a potential impact across Services
UNCLASSIFIED
3

UNCLASSIFIED
AoA Defined
• An AoA is the evaluation of the performance, operational
effectiveness, operational suitability, and estimated
costs of alternative systems to meet a mission
capability. (CJCSI 3170.01)
UNCLASSIFIED
Which one, in what configuration… or is it a combination
(i.e., system of systems [SoS] or Family of Systems [FoS])?
4

• Key AoA components
• Operational environment
• i.e., threats and scenarios
• Alternative development
• Employment concept development
• Risk analysis
• Effectiveness analysis
• Cost analysis
Calendar
Driven
• Cost-effectiveness analysis
• Value to the decision process
What is an AoA?
• Identifies the viable trade space (not just the 100% solution)
• Creates audit trail of the analysis process
Joint
Capabilities Integration
& Development
System (JCIDS)
VCJCS or
Service Chief Oversight
ANALYSIS
Planning,
Programming,
Budgeting & Joint CONOPS
Execution (PPBE) Process
DEPSECDEF
Oversight
UNCLASSIFIED
Need
Driven
Defense
Acquisition
System
MDA
Oversight
Event
Driven
• Provides an analytical basis for any acquisitions that may
follow
5
UNCLASSIFIED

When are AoAs performed?
• Suggested by an Initial Capabilities Document (ICD)
• Authorized at the Material Development Decision (MDD)
• Conducted during the Materiel Solution Analysis (MSA) phase
• Updated prior to Milestones B and C as directed by MDA
Concept
Development
(AFI 10-601)
AoA
Defense Acquisition
Management System
(DODI 5000-02)
Initial
Capability
Document
Development
Planning &
MDD
Prep
AoA Study
Guidance and
Study Plan
Materiel
Solution
Analysis
Technology
Development
Strategy
Technology
Development
Capability
Development
Document
Engineering and
Manufacturing
Development
MDD MS A MS B MS C
Capability
Production
Document
Production
and
Deployment
Operations
and
Support
Required
Documentation

• Short answer: it depends!
• Key Drivers:
• Decision maker expectations
How long do AoAs take and cost?
• Available resources: time, personnel/expertise,
funding
• Data for 27 AoAs (2000-2008) **
• Average cost $3.9M
• Gov’t salaries not included
• Earlier AoA costs very suspect
• Primary factors affecting cost:
• Blue Suit vs Contractor mix
• Non-AoA work counted in the
total (engineering design, test,
etc.)
• Length of the AoA (consistent
$300-400K/mo)
• Costs are approximate; often the
study lead reluctant to give us
costs
Cheap
Good
Study Results
“Trade Space”
Fast
UNCLASSIFIED
• Data for 56 AoAs **
• Average length 20 months
• 61% took between 13-24 months
• Variations generally correlate to
• Complexity of the problem
• Stakeholder politics
• Funding levels
• How much analysis already done
• Times are approximate, slightly
conservative
• Those longer than 36 months have
extenuating circumstances
UNCLASSIFIED
“Good, fast, or cheap… pick two!”
** Data provided by OAS
7

UNCLASSIFIED
Cost of AoA
• 2000-present: cost range from $500K to $11.5M (Ground
Moving-Target Indicator (GMTI)
• GMTI estimated cost was $25M – provided by Cost lead
• 3600 funding only – money requested by Space and Missile
Center (SMC) to directly fund work
• 3400 funding and/or “in-house” contractor support
• Prompt Global Strike (PGS) AoA
• Pre-AoA prior to 2003 – all work “out of hide” funded
• ADM assigned
• Reported to AFROCC 2008; Final Report signed in 2009
• Requested analysis continues
** Single country, single component, single service, single MAJCOM, single
mission, single technology
UNCLASSIFIED
8

UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO
North American Air Domain Awareness –
Surveillance Analysis of Alternatives
• Documents required for AoA start:
• Joint Integrated Air & Missile Defense Organization
(JIAMDO) IAMD Initial Capabilities Document (ICD)
• Approved by JROCM dated 29 Oct 2010
• OSD/CA&PE for AoA Study Guidance
• N-NC/J58 working comments
• N-NC/J5 Study Plan
• Currently on hold – awaiting Study Guidance
finalization
• Material Development Decision (MDD) – formal entry point into
acquisition process
• AoA required for ACAT 1 acquisitions (DoDI 5000.02)
• Purpose:
• Develop an International/Interagency solution to
address North American air/cruise missile surveillance
gaps and deterioration while maintaining current
capabilities
• Scope:
• AoA is unique due to scope – current planning has
N-NC & ACC as co-leads
• Timeline/Funding:
• Currently advertised as 18-24 months after approval;
$5M
• N-NC/J84 supporting as follows:
• Effectiveness Analysis Team Lead, Risk Team Lead,
Integrating Analyst
UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO
Etc…
7. Package Results
• Focus on issues
• Make it clear and understandable
• Orient to decision maker
• Socialize the results and get approval
6. Prove the Answer
• Recheck assumptions
• Analyze sensitivities
• Identify additional analysis needed
5. Interpret the Results
• Determine meaning of the data
generated
• Get independent sanity check
4. Execute Analysis Plan
Conduct the analysis
• Effectiveness
• Cost
• Risk
• Affordability
AoA Activities
1. Define the Problem (J58)
• Determine purpose
• Determine/discuss issues
• Define alternatives/approaches
• Determine audience for results
• Identify potential detractors
2. Develop Analysis Plan
• Review existing knowledge
• Develop appropriate
measures
• Develop analysis
methodologies
• Socialize the plan and get
approval
3. Gather & Review Data
• Identify input data Data Types
requirements • Scenarios
• Accredit/certify • Tools
• Identify voids • Performance
• Cost
9