30 July - 5 August 2012 - orsam

now hinders rainfall. Timothy Lenton, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, argues that such
pollution could trigger wider instability in the monsoon.
Yet a decline in average rainfall may not be the main worry. Experts who met in Delhi in May to
discuss climate-induced ―extreme events‖ in India suggest that likelier threats include more short and
devastating downpours and storms, more frequent floods and droughts, longer consecutive dry days
within monsoons, more rapid drying of the soil as the land heats, and a greater likelihood that plant
and animal diseases might spread.
It does not bode well for farmers, or for crammed cities with poor sewerage and other rotten
infrastructure. Slums and coastal cities look especially vulnerable. Mumbai was overwhelmed in
2005 when nearly a metre of rain was dumped on the city in 24 hours.
Such events will happen more often, the highest official in the country‘s environment ministry warns.
He wants urgently to bring about a big increase in insurance schemes that spread weather-related
risks. Rajendra Pachauri, who leads the United Nations‘ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
worries that India is not yet even seriously debating the new threats. He says it is ill-prepared for
floods and droughts ―that are now considered once-in-every-20-years events, but will be happening
once in two years‖.
The data harvest
The most pressing need is to gather and analyse data. This month Indian scientists and foreign
partners launched a five-year ―monsoon mission‖ to develop climate models for the region. India‘s
government is beginning to act, by setting up new Doppler radar stations to track weather systems
over mountains. It is launching a new plane to fly into cyclones to study their behaviour. Better still,
India and its neighbours could start sharing weather data, comparing ground and satellite
observations, for example.
More can be done elsewhere, too. Most obviously, even the poorest farmers could work together
better to store rainwater, for instance in ponds and tanks, rather than praying for the skies to open.
The share of India‘s farmland that is irrigated could roughly double, officials say. Huge scope exists
to reduce losses through evaporation and leakage from shoddy irrigation systems.
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