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FEATURE
P R O J E C T I O N L I G H T S & S TA G I N G N E W S
Coming Soon to a Theatre (or Arena) Near You
NEW TECHNOLOGY TO ARRIVE IN 2007
By RichardCadena
More than 40 years ago, a really
smart guy named Gordon Moore
predicted that computers would
halve in size and double in speed every 24
months. Moore’s Law, as it has since come to
be known, has held true since then. But some
other really smart people believe that when
transistors reach the size of an atom — which
could be as soon as 2020 — then the party’s
over for Moore’s Law.
If you remember synthpop kings of the
‘80s and their digital keyboards, you might
be familiar with the name Ray Kurzweil. No,
he’s not the guy in Flock of Seagulls with the
funny haircut; he’s the guy who, at the urging
of Stevie Wonder, invented the digital grand
piano. But Kurzweil is more than just a name
on a synthesizer. He’s also one of the world’s
foremost futurists and the guy who Bill Gates
called the smartest guy he knows. And according
to Kurzweil, Moore’s Law, or something
like it, will continue to hold true for the
foreseeable future.
That’s because historically, says Kurzweil,
when one technology reaches a limit, another
technology takes over. To wit, in the
last 100 years, computers went from using
electromechanical relays to vacuum tubes
to transistors to integrated circuits, doubling
processing power every 36 months from
1900 to 1920, every 24 months from 1940
to 1960, and every 12 months from 1990 to
2000 along the way. The next advances will
come from nanotechnology, and soon, new
technologies will create something he calls
“singularity,” or “technological change so…
profound it represents a rupture in the fabric
of human history.”
Not that any of this new technology will
affect the production industry — at least not
in the near future. But the fact that processing
power doubled every year for the last 16
years does have an effect on the industry today.
Without massive computing power, such
staples as media servers, pixel mapping and
automated consoles controlling multiple universes
of fixtures with multiple parameters
and all networked together, would not be
possible.
Given today’s rate of technological advancements,
it’s not unrealistic to expect that
emerging technology in our industry — even
if it is years behind state-of-the-art computer
technology — will make incredible advances
every year. So what can we expect in the
coming year?
High End Systems’ DL.2s with Collage Generator light up a screen.
Digital Lighting
With a relatively simple software solution
that High End Systems dubbed Collage Generator,
the DL.2 went from a 5K ANSI lumen
digital luminaire to a tool that could project
images far beyond the capability of the largest
projectors by edge-blending a matrix of
DL.2s. Where will the digital luminaire take us
in 2007?
“We will be stunned and amazed if 2007
doesn’t see a proliferation of digital lighting
fixtures,” says Bob Bonniol, partner and creative
director of Mode Studios. “There have
been some background legal wranglings, but
the air seems to be clearing. My prediction:
Watch for one or more of the major projection
and/or lighting manufacturers to enter
the market with digital lighting models.”
Robe has already shown their hand at last
year’s PLASA exhibition with their DigitalSpot
5000 DT. If Bonniol is right, we could see them
launched in the Americas this year. Look for
more entries in this arena, if not in 2007, then
in the very near term.
Media Servers
The media server market is the new automated
lighting market — it’s getting more
crowded with each passing trade show. Some
industry observers believe that the market is
over served. “Our prediction,” says Bonniol, “is
that we will see the product ranges narrow
as the market starts to sway heavily towards
three or maybe four (media servers) that programmers
and designers tend to use most.
The idea that all the lighting console manufacturers
have regarding the need to build in
media server functionality will reveal itself to
be the boondoggle that it is. You guys make
the great consoles. Stop trying to be a spotted
zebra!”
Be that as it may, chances are that vast improvements
in media servers will fuel growth
in this market. P.J. Turpin, national sales director
at Martin Professional, is betting on it. “The
big story for 2007 will be the continued penetration
of LEDs and the combination of LEDs
and media servers at all levels,” he said. “We
will see this spread rapidly in all levels and all
budget brackets.”
Visualizers
The recent release of modeling plugins
allowing Autodesk 3D Studio Max to be used
with ESP Vision is a clear indicator of things
to come. The power of Hollywood-style animation
combined with lighting visualization
that can take advantage of the new generation
of dual-core and the soon-to-be-arriving
quad-core processing is a prime example
of the state of entertainment technology.
Other software and visualization developers
are hinting at good things to come in 2007;
though, in an industry where loose lips can
sink ships, no one is willing to talk in anything
more than vague terms. Just know that it’s
going to be good.
“Wireless
technology in
entertainment
is about to
explode on the
market.”
- James Smith
Consoles
If the past is prologue, then the immediate
past indicates an expansion of networking,
real-world values, increased computing
power and better features in upcoming consoles.
If console manufacturers never uttered
the words “floppy disk” again, it would be too
soon. Fortunately, most manufacturers are
way beyond that technology and what they
have in store for our future, besides new software
upgrades, is still, for the most part, under
wraps. But to be sure, more than a couple of
console manufacturers have acknowledged
that they are working on new consoles to be
launched this year.
RDM and ACN
The new control protocol called Remote
Device Management, or RDM, was officially
released midway through 2006, unleashing a
fury of activity from manufacturers working
An oft-run screen cap of ESP Vision 2
to integrate it into new and existing products.
“By the end of 2007, I think we’ll see a large
offering of products supporting RDM,” says
coninued on page 55
38 PLSN FEBRUARY 2007
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