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Appendix I: Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING 

REPORT 

Prepared for: 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit District 

Prepared by: 

Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc. 

September 2005

Appendix I: Travel Demand Forecasting Report


TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1.0 INTRODUCTION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 

1.1 Study Corridor---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 

2.0 MODEL BACKGROUND---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 

2.1 Modeling Process ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 

2.2 System-Wide Flow of Trips ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 

2.3 Traffic Analysis Zones ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 

2.4 Highway Network------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9 

2.5 Transit Network-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 

2.5.1 Transit Network Development -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 

2.5.2 Transit Network Path-Building -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 

2.6 Modifications to the MTC/VTA Model ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 

2.6.1 Home-Based Work Modifications --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 

2.6.2 Non-Home-Based Work Modifications---------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 

2.6.3 Walk Access Link Modifications------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 12 

3.0 DEMOGRAPHICS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 13 

3.1 Population--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 

3.2 Employment ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15 

4.0 STUDY ALTERNATIVES --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 

4.1 No-Build Alternative -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 

4.2 Express Bus Alternative --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 

4.3 SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Cloverdale to Larkspur----------------------------------------------- 22 

4.3.1 Local Shuttle System -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 

4.4 SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Windsor to San Rafael 

Minimum Operable Segment (MOS) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 

5.0 RESULTS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 

5.1 Transit Travel Times-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 

5.2 System-Wide Transit Summary-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------29 

5.2.1 Daily Transit Trips-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------29 

5.2.2 Home-Based Work Transit Trips-------------------------------------------------------------------------------29 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit i Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

September 2005


5.3 Express Bus Ridership -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------30 

5.4 Passenger Rail Ridership -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------32 

5.4.1 Daily Ridership ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------32 

5.4.2 Home-Based Work Ridership ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------33 

5.4.3 Peak Period Ridership ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------35 

5.4.4 Shuttle Bus Ridership -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------38 

5.4.5 Parking Demand--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------39 

5.5 Transit Trip Length ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------40 

5.6 Vehicle Miles Traveled and Vehicle Hours Traveled ---------------------------------------------------------41 

LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 1.1-1 Smart Corridor Study Area---------------------------------------------------------------------------------2 

Figure 2.2-1 Year 2025 Home Based Work Desire Lines – Sonoma County ----------------------------------5 

Figure 2.2-2 Year 2025 Home Based Work Desire Lines Desire Lines – Marin County --------------------6 

Figure 2.3-1 Study Area Traffic Analysis Zones-----------------------------------------------------------------------8 

Figure 2.5-1 Transit Support Node and Access Link Structure ----------------------------------------------- 10 

Figure 3.1-1 Forecast Growth in Population by TAZ, 2000-2025 -------------------------------------------------14 

Figure 3.2-1 Forecast Growth in Employment by TAZ, 2000-2025-----------------------------------------------16 

Figure 4.2-1 Express Bus Alternative - Location of Express Bus Service Stops ------------------------------20 

Figure 4.2-2 Express Bus Alternative - Location of Super Express Bus Service Stops ---------------------21 

Figure 5.1-1 Location of Traffic Analysis Zones with High Population and Employment--------------------28 

Figure 5.4-1 2025 Peak Period Ridership for Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative-----------------------------36 

Figure 5.4-2 2025 Peak Period Ridership for Windsor to San Rafael Alternative-----------------------------37 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 2.2-1 Flow of Home Based Work Trips from County to Super Districts in Year 2025----------------7 

Table 3.1-1 Forecast Growth in Population, 2000-2025-------------------------------------------------------------13 

Table 3.1-2 Forecast Growth in Number of Households, 2000-2025 --------------------------------------------13 

Table 3.2-1 Forecast Growth in Employment, 2000-2025 ----------------------------------------------------------15 

Table 4.2-1 Frequency Improvements to Bus Routes-----------------------------------------------------------------18 

Table 4.3-1 Passenger Rail Alternative - Passenger Rail Stations -----------------------------------------------22 

Table 4.3-2 Passenger Rail Alternative - Station-to-Station Distance (Miles)-----------------------------------23 

Table 4.3-3 Passenger Rail Alternative - Station-to-Station Travel Time (Minutes)---------------------------23 

Table 4.3-4 Traffic Analysis Zones with Access to Parking at Stations------------------------------------------24 

Table 5.1-1 High Population and Employment Traffic Analysis Zones ------------------------------------------26 

Table 5.1-2 Future Peak Period Transit Travel Times in Minutes-------------------------------------------------27 

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September 2005


Table 5.2-1 Forecast 2025 System-Wide Total Daily Transit Trips Comparison ----------------------------- 29 

Table 5.2-2 Forecast 2025 System-Wide Total Home-Based Work Transit Trips Comparison----------- 30 

Table 5.3-1 2025 Total Daily Ridership for Express Bus Routes ------------------------------------------------- 31 

Table 5.3-2 2025 Total Home-Based Work Ridership for Express Bus Routes ------------------------------ 31 

Table 5.4-1 2025 Total Daily Ridership for SMART Passenger Rail: Cloverdale to Larkspur ------------ 32 

Table 5.4-2 2025 Total Daily Ridership for SMART Passenger Rail: Windsor to San Rafael ------------ 33 

Table 5.4-3 2025 Total Home-Base Work Ridership for SMART Passenger Rail: 

Cloverdale to Larkspur--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 

Table 5.4-4 2025 Total Home-Base Work Ridership for SMART Passenger Rail: 

Windsor to San Rafael--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 35 

Table 5.4-5 Daily 2025 Shuttle Bus Boarding for Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative ----------------------- 38 

Table 5.4-6 Daily 2025 Shuttle Bus Boarding for Windsor to Rafael Alternative ----------------------------- 38 

Table 5.4-7 2025 Parking Demand for Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative---------------------------------- 39 

Table 5.4-8 2025 Parking Demand for Windsor to San Rafael Alternative------------------------------------- 40 

Table 5.5-1 Forecast Transit Trip Length for Build Alternatives -------------------------------------------------- 41 

Table 5.6-1 2025 VMT and VHT for Sonoma County and Marin County by Study Alternative------------ 42 

APPENDIX A – 2025 HOME BASED WORK TRIPS SONOMA COUNTY 

APPENDIX B – 2025 HOME BASED WORK TRIPS MARIN COUNTY 

APPENDIX C – STATION-TO-STATION FARE MATRIX 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit iii Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

September 2005


1.0 INTRODUCTION 

The Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) Rail District is evaluating transportation improvements 

along the approximately 70-mile corridor extending from Cloverdale in Sonoma County, California to a 

ferry terminal located in Larkspur, Marin County, California. The corridor generally parallels Highway 

101 running north-south in Sonoma and Marin counties along an existing railroad right-of-way. 

The objective of this SMART Travel Demand Forecasting report is to present travel demand modeling 

results for the alternatives analyzed as a part of the Draft Environmental Impact Report (DEIR) for the 

SMART project. A Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) will be prepared at a later date. The 

report presents the results of each alternative developed for the study based on anticipated demands for 

year 2025. The contents of this report include a description of the travel demand model used for the 

study, demographics of the study area, an overview of the study alternatives, and the travel demand 

forecast results for each alternative. 

1.1 Study Corridor 

The Highway 101/SMART corridor encompasses Sonoma and Marin counties. Sonoma County is the 

northernmost county of the nine county San Francisco Bay Area region, and it is bordered by Napa 

County to the east, Mendocino County to the north, the San Pablo Bay and Marin County to the south, 

and the Pacific Ocean to the west. Marin County is located north of San Francisco County and is 

bordered by the San Francisco Bay to the east and the Pacific Ocean to the west. Highway 101, a fourlane 

facility serves as the lifeline for local and regional traffic and transit in the two counties as it is the 

only continuous north-south roadway. 

Figure 1.1-1 illustrates the study corridor. The corridor extends from Asti Road in Cloverdale through 

central Sonoma County to the ferry terminal at Larkspur in east Marin County. This report defines the 

SMART Study Area as the area inclusive of Sonoma and Marin counties in their entirety and 

distinguishes the Highway 101/SMART corridor as the transit corridor adjacent to Highway 101 

encompassed by the following incorporated local jurisdictions: Cloverdale, Healdsburg, Windsor, Santa 

Rosa, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Petaluma, Novato, San Rafael, and Larkspur. 

Ridership forecasts will be presented for other places in the study area served by the existing transit 

network. The Highway 101/SMART corridor is served by a network of bus routes operated by various 

public agencies. They include: 

• Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District (GGBHTD) 

• Sonoma County Transit District 

• Marin County Transit District (Transit funding agency only) 

• Santa Rosa CityBus 

• Petaluma Transit 

• Healdsburg In-City 

Travel times and delays on Highway 101 are expected to increase as a result of continuing population 

and employment growth in the region. High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes that were recently 

constructed provide some relief to certain high density segments of the highway. They include segments 

between San Rafael and Novato, and Wilfred Avenue (Rohnert Park) and Santa Rosa. As a part of 

future enhancements, new segments are identified for widening between Corte Madera and Windsor 

resulting in a seamless corridor of HOV lanes. In conjunction with these highway enhancements, the 

study analyzes alternate means of travel such as passenger rail and express-bus service between 

strategically located transit centers in the corridor. 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 1 Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

September 2005


FIGURE 1.1-1 

SMART CORRIDOR STUDY AREA 

Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff 


September 2005


2.0 MODEL BACKGROUND 

The model chosen for the SMART project was the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) 

regional model, which is an enhanced version of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) 

regional model in TP+/Viper software. BAYCAST-90, the MTC regional model, encompasses the ninecounty 

San Francisco Bay Area and is the model used to develop the Regional Transportation Plan 

(RTP) and prepare travel forecasts for major regional corridor studies. The MTC model was calibrated to 

the 1990 regional household survey and was re-validated by MTC to 1998 traffic counts and transit 

operator boardings as part of the 2001 update of the RTP. 

VTA enhanced the MTC regional model by estimating transit submode ridership in the home-based work 

mode choice models, recalibrating to a more recent year 2000 baseline and adding in an external transit 

mode choice model to estimate transit trips from outside the nine county region into the region. The nine 

counties are Sonoma, San Mateo, Contra Costa, Marin, Santa Clara, Solano, San Francisco, Alameda, 

and Napa. 

This model was chosen for the SMART project because it was recently recalibrated to base year 2000 

conditions under guidance provided by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and it was the best 

model available in the region at the time. The FTA model recalibration was a condition for using the VTA 

regional models for the FTA New Starts project planning efforts. 

To utilize the model for the SMART project only minor changes were necessary. The main changes 

were to the transit assumptions to reflect the differing transit levels of service by alternative. The 

remainder of this chapter briefly describes the general modeling process, the flow of work trips into and 

out of Sonoma and Marin counties based on the travel demand forecasting model, and the modifications 

and the major inputs to the travel forecasting model in terms of traffic analysis zones, highway network, 

and transit network. This section begins to set the stage for travel in the SMART corridor. 

2.1 Modeling Process 

The VTA model estimates travel in four basic steps: 

• Trip generation, 

• Trip distribution, 

• Mode choice, and 

• Trip assignment 

The initial step, trip generation, geographically determines the amount of travel activity that the socioeconomic 

data will generate; i.e., employment centers versus residential neighborhoods. The second 

step, trip distribution, links and disperses the generated travel by identifying origin and destination pairs. 

Mode choice then evaluates the various transportation options available and disaggregates the total 

demand by travel mode. The final step, trip assignment, is where demand is assigned to the 

transportation system facilities and modes. 

The results of the trip generation and trip distribution steps (person trip tables) were obtained from a year 

2025 model run, and were held constant for this project. The mode choice model is the integral link in 

the travel demand chain. Mode choice models are mathematical expressions used to estimate the share 

of travel on each available mode given its time and cost characteristics, and the demographic and socioeconomic 

characteristics of trip makers. 

The development of future year 2025 forecasts for the proposed transit improvements in the SMART 

Corridor relies primarily upon a nested logit mode choice model. The mathematics behind the mode 


September 2005


choice model considers projected levels in 2025 for all key variables that influence travel demand. 

These variable considerations include population, households, employment, income, and auto 

ownership, as well as highway network characteristics (i.e. link capacities and speeds, centroid 

characteristics, and HOV facilities) and transit system characteristics (i.e. bus and rail routes, stations, 

and frequency). These major inputs into the travel demand model are discussed in the following 

sections and chapters. 

2.2 System-Wide Flow of Trips 

The Year 2025 trip tables for the study area were held constant; therefore the origins and destinations of 

the trips remain constant across alternatives. This section describes the major trip movements for the 

home-based work (HBW) trips related to the SMART study area. As mentioned, the model is comprised 

of nine counties. These counties are further divided into 34 superdistricts. The six superdistricts 

corresponding to Sonoma and Marin were combined to represent each county. To understand systemwide 

HBW trip movement, desire lines were created between each county in the SMART study area to 

every super-district in the remaining counties. 

Figures 2.2-1 and 2.2-2 display Year 2025 desire lines representing two-way flow of HBW person trips 

for Sonoma County and Marin County, respectively. The blue lines indicate trip productions while the 

green lines indicate trip attractions. The tables of total home-based work person trips between superdistricts, 

which were used to create these desire lines for each SMART county, are displayed in 

Appendix A and Appendix B. Figure 2.2-1 shows the flows to and from Sonoma County (Superdistricts 

29) in 2025. The main flow of HBW trips is to/from Marin County, followed by flows to San Francisco 

(Superdistrict 1), and from Napa (Superdistrict 27). Figure 2.2-2 shows the 2025 flows to and from Marin 

County (Superdistrict 32) in 2025. The major flow of trips is to San Francisco (Superdistrict 1), followed 

by major flows to and from Sonoma County (Superdistricts 29 and 30). 

Table 2.2-1 is a subset of the super-district to super-district table which focuses on 2025 trips associated 

with the SMART corridor going to/from the other super-districts. As shown in Table 2.2-1, 446,000 work 

trips originate in Sonoma County of which over 365,000 trips (or 82 percent) remain inside the county, 

the next highest area for Sonoma County work trip destinations is Marin County (Superdistricts 30-32) 

with nearly 40,000 daily trips, followed by San Francisco (Superdistrict 1) with approximately 12,000 daily 

trips. The super district with the most work trips destined to Sonoma County is from Napa County 

(Superdistrict 27), with over 14,000 daily trips. It is followed by Marin County, Superdistricts 30 and 31, 

which produces a combined flow of about 17,000 daily trips destined to Sonoma County. 

As observed in Table 2.2-1, like Sonoma County the majority of work trips remain inside the county of 

origin, Marin, which generates over 125,000 daily trips. However, from Marin approximately 55,000 (22 

percent) of work trips are attracted into San Francisco Superdistrict 1, and approximately nine percent 

travel to Sonoma County Superdistricts 29-31. 

It is evident from the desire lines that the majority of the HBW trips in the study area remains within the 

origin County or travel to the other County. This, coupled with the congestion on Highway 101, suggest 

a need for travel within and between the counties. 


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FIGURE 2.2-1 

YEAR 2025 HOME-BASED WORK TRIP DESIRE LINES – SONOMA COUNTY 



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FIGURE 2.2-2 

YEAR 2025 HOME-BASED WORK TRIP DESIRE LINES – MARIN COUNTY 



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TABLE 2.2-1 

FLOW OF HOME-BASED WORK TRIPS FROM COUNTY TO SUPER DISTRICTS IN YEAR 2025 

County District From Sonoma To Sonoma County District From Marin To Marin 

1 12,326 730 1 55,098 1,710 

San 

2 2,805 1,888 San 

2 6,404 4,315 

Francisco 3 2,731 951 Francisco 3 8,478 3,117 

4 485 688 4 1,767 1,468 

5 2,594 618 5 5,383 3,455 

San Mateo 6 1,087 217 San Mateo 6 1,139 1,066 

7 1,157 75 7 1,265 810 

8 212 83 8 361 483 

9 276 26 9 686 423 

10 81 168 10 182 229 

Santa Clara 11 113 84 Santa Clara 11 254 168 

12 67 98 12 375 134 

13 75 67 13 63 89 

14 79 49 14 45 46 

15 633 679 15 749 556 

16 511 169 16 706 1,096 

Alameda 17 810 901 Alameda 17 1,808 1,432 

18 1,974 2,444 18 3,917 6,706 

19 965 1,881 19 2,325 4,883 

20 1,627 2,841 20 3,111 11,426 

21 870 1,250 21 791 1,562 

Contra 

Contra 

22 390 585 22 1,263 1,000 

Costa 

Costa 

23 278 381 23 1,190 501 

24 187 1,094 24 607 1,046 

Solano 

Napa 

25 943 4,296 25 784 5,325 

Solano 

26 1,139 3,730 26 381 4,331 

27 3,550 14,034 27 835 2,143 

Napa 

28 3,006 2,962 28 157 112 

Sonoma 29 365,111 

29 12,286 25,410 

30 18,042 9,061 Sonoma 30 8,449 11,792 

Marin 31 13,720 8,161 31 395 2,768 

32 8,208 3,909 Marin 32 

125,147 

Total Sonoma Trips 446,050 429,229 Total Marin Trips 246,400 224,749 

Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff 

2.3 Traffic Analysis Zones 

Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) are building blocks of travel demand models. They represent geographic 

areas in the model from which and to which trips are allocated. 

A particular level of geography can be designated as a TAZ and is typically based on using Census 

geography. Census geography is classified into blocks, block groups, tracts, and counties. The model 

was based on 1990 Census geography and the level of geography used was Census tracts. The same 

level of geography is retained in the SMART model to maintain consistency with the original structure. 

The entire model is comprised of 1,199 internal TAZs and 21 external TAZs. However, the study area is 

comprised of 108 internal traffic analysis zones. Figure 2.3-1 illustrates the TAZs in each study county. 


September 2005


FIGURE 2.3-1 

STUDY AREA TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES 

Source: MTC, 2003 

The zonal data include a number of attributes that represent different characteristics of the geographic 

area. The main attributes defined are: 

• Population 

• Households 

• Auto Ownership 

• Area in Acres 

• Retail Employment 

• Non-Retail Employment 

• Mean Household Income 


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2.4 Highway Network 

Highway supply characteristics required by the travel forecasting procedures include estimation of the 

highway network facilities, highway level of service (i.e., travel speed or time), HOV and toll designations, 

and auto operating costs. 

The model provided the highway networks for use on the SMART project. The networks were checked 

for connectivity and enhanced as necessary to provide slightly more detail in the study area. Minor 

enhancements were made which included adding new streets and reconnecting centroid connectors. 

HOV lanes were added in some portions of Sonoma and Marin counties resulting in a continuous set of 

HOV lanes on Highway 101 from Corte Madera to Windsor. 

The future year 2025 highway network was used as an underlying network to develop transit networks 

for alternatives in this study. This highway network remained constant for all alternatives. 

2.5 Transit Network 

A reflection of the level of service experienced by a potential transit user is constructed through 

development of a computerized network representation of the system of routes and service levels 

existing in the region. This computer-coded transit network must be an accurate representation of the 

individual bus routes, fixed guide-way lines, headways, and travel times that define transit service. 

Consistency in representation methods across all alternatives is essential to ensure that differences in 

travel times between those alternatives are accurate portrayals of service level differences and not 

simply differences in coding conventions. Since level of service varies throughout the day, transit 

networks are constructed for both a peak period and a base or off-peak period. This allows the networks 

to capture such nuances as ‘express’ or ‘commuter’ routes that do not provide off-peak service or routes 

that offer different service frequencies at different times of the day. 

An extensive network of bus routes, light rail, and passenger rail exists in the Bay area. The model 

incorporates the entire transit system that is expected to be in place by 2025 in the RTP network, 

including the route systems in Sonoma and Marin counties. This network was the starting point for 

developing the transit networks for the SMART project. These transit networks were developed based 

on using the future highway network as the underlying highway network. Four transit networks were 

created. They are defined in detail in the alternatives definition chapter but in general are as follows: 

1. No-Build 

2. Express Bus 

3. SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Cloverdale to Larkspur 

4. SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Windsor to San Rafael (Minimum Operable Segment) 

2.5.1 Transit Network Development 

Transit networks were developed for each alternative based on procedures from the BAYCAST model. 

For example, Figure 2.3-1 illustrates the different types of access links and transit support nodes created 

by the SMART model for a passenger rail station. The different geometric shapes represent transit 

support nodes and the dashed lines represent transit access links generated by the model. The access 

links are distinguished by origin and destination ends and are classified as: 

Mode 1 – Walk Access Connector (Traffic Analysis Zone to Funnel Node) 

Mode 2 – Drive Access Connector (Traffic Analysis Zone to Park-and-Ride Facility) 

Mode 3 – Transfer Connector (Bus Stop to Rail Station) 

Mode 4 – Drive Access Walk Funnel Link (Park-and-Ride Facility to Rail Station) 

Mode 5 – Walk Access Walk Funnel Link (Funnel Node to Rail Station) 


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FIGURE 2.5-1 

TRANSIT SUPPORT NODE AND ACCESS LINK STRUCTURE 

Rail Tracks 

MODE 3 

MODE 5 

Rail Station 

MODE 4 

Bus Stop 

Funnel Node 

Park ‘N’ Ride Lot 

MODE 2 

Local Street MODE 1 

Traffic Analysis Zone 

Highway 


The access links are generated for every transit route in the transit system. Each transit route is a 

computerized representation of the transit route through nodes that traverse the highway network 

specifying where the route stops allowing travelers to get on or off the route. Additionally, the route 

coding includes the frequency by time of day. The model creates an AM peak period network and a 

Midday off-peak period network. 

The transit network development process also involved developing station-to-station fares, locating parkand-ride 

facilities near station stops, and designating traffic analysis zones that fall in the catchment area 

of these park-and-ride facilities. The catchment area for each park-and-ride facility encompassed zones 

that are within a maximum distance of seven miles. 

Transit station-to-station fares for the SMART model were estimated based on assuming a maximum 

fare of $5.00 in 1990 US dollars for the 70-mile long passenger rail. A fare matrix was created based on 

distance between stations. Appendix C presents the fare matrix prepared for the full length passenger 

rail alternative. 

2.5.2 Transit Network Path-Building 

Transit paths were built and checked for accuracy using the transit networks developed following the 

procedures discussed in the preceding section. The paths were checked by producing interzonal transit 

paths on a select set of traffic analysis zones. The inputs to path-building included background highway 

network, transit route files, transit station-to-station fares, mode-to-mode transfer fares, supplementary 

link files, and access information. 

Three sets of transit paths were produced by the model: 

1. AM Peak Period “Best” Paths 

2. AM Peak Period “Walk-only” Paths 

3. Midday “Walk-only” paths. 


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In the AM peak period best paths, walk access to transit competes with auto access to transit to produce 

the best paths. AM peak walk-only paths and midday walk-only paths produces walk access paths to 

transit. 

2.6 Modifications to the MTC/VTA Model 

This section presents modifications made to the MTC/VTA travel demand model for the SMART EIR. 

Specific changes were made to the mode choice portion of the model to improve its ability to estimate 

rail travel. Each modification was made with the intent of improving the model’s ability to replicate data 

observed in the region of interest (the San Francisco Bay Area). Observed data/behavior was obtained 

from the Caltrain On-Board Survey used to calibrate the model (Caltrain, 2003).The approach first 

introduced a new variable to the mode choice model, and the coefficient acting on the new variable was 

then calibrated using observed data. The changes are discussed in two sections below: for the homebased 

work trip purpose and the other trip purposes. 

2.6.1 Home-Based Work Modifications 

The home-based work mode choice model includes walk-to-transit modes segmented by service 

type (i.e. walk to passenger rail) and generic auto access modes (i.e. drive-to-transit; where 

transit could be passenger rail, light rail, local bus, and so on). The modifications to the model 

are discussed separately for each of these access types below. 

Walk-access to Passenger Rail: The segmentation of transit modes in the walk access nest allowed 

for the introduction of passenger-rail specific coefficients. One shortcoming of the mode choice model is 

the lack of a penalty applied to bus-to-rail or rail-to-bus transfers. In the calibration year, this shortcoming 

caused an overestimation of transfer trips (a Caltrain on-board survey observed a transfer rate near 50% 

versus an estimated rate near 86%). To alleviate this problem, a variable to capture the number of 

transfers was introduced to the model and a coefficient was calibrated to allow the estimated transfer 

rate to more closely match the observed transfer rate. The final calibrated value for this coefficient was - 

3.400, which corresponds to 70 equivalent minutes of in-vehicle travel time. 

Drive-access to Transit: Transit modes in the drive access nest (park and ride and kiss and ride) are 

treated as generic. As such, variables specific to the passenger rail choice are introduced conditionally 

only if a passenger rail in-vehicle time is present in the input skim matrices (new drive access to 

passenger rail skims were produced for the SMART project and the mode choice source code was 

modified to accept the new skims). Three variables specific to the drive-to-passenger rail mode were 

introduced, namely: transfers (same as the walk access), a ratio of the drive access to passenger rail invehicle 

time, and an alternative specific constant. 

The transfer variable behaves similar to the walk-access mode, discussed previously. Again, 

this variable was calibrated to match the observed transfer rate. The final calibrated coefficient 

is -4.200, which translates to 86 equivalent in-vehicle minutes. 

The travel time ratio variable computes the ratio of the drive access time to the passenger rail invehicle 

time. Such a variable has been shown to be an important determinant of passenger rail 

choice in places such as San Diego. The coefficient on this variable was calibrated to 

approximately match the observed ratio in the San Diego Region. The final coefficient is -1.000 

(20 minutes of in-vehicle time). 

The introduction of negative utilities based on transfers and the travel time ratio causes the 

passenger rail portion of the drive-access to transit mode to lose market share. To regain this 

share, an alternative specific constant is introduced specific to the drive to passenger rail mode 

(again, the input skim is used to determine when this constant should be applied). The final 

value of this coefficient is 0.9732, which translates to 20 equivalent in-vehicle minutes. 


September 2005


2.6.2 Non-Home-Based Work Modifications 

Modifications made to the non-home-based work trip purposes include only a transfer penalty, 

similar to the home-based work modifications. Due to the difficulty of compiling and modifying 

the mode choice source code for these purposes, the penalty was introduced as a time penalty 

in the input skim matrices instead of coefficients in the source code. The resulting impact on the 

choice of mode is identical. The penalties were only introduced when a passenger rail travel 

time was present. The final calibrated penalty for the walk access transfer trips was 60 minutes 

and 75 minutes for the drive access trips. 

2.6.3 Walk Access Link Modifications 

In addition to the above noted modifications to the mode choice model, the project team also made some 

modifications to the walk access links. The walk links were recoded to better reflect the location of actual 

development relative to proposed rail stations. The modifications included shortening walk distances 

between several TAZ centroids and the associated rail stations and adding additional walk access links 

to connect additional TAZs to the rail stations. The main focus was at the Marin County Civic Center 

Station and Larkspur Station. At the Civic Center station three walk links were modified, TAZ 1063 was 

shortened from 0.8 of a mile to 0.4 of a mile, and TAZs 1061 and 1062 were added with a 0.6 mile 

access link and 0.35 mile access link respectively. Neither TAZ 1061 nor 1062 were originally included 

in the model, both TAZ centroids were over a mile from the rail station. At the Larkspur station the walk 

access link from TAZ 1081 was also shortened from over one mile to a half of a mile. Additionally, 

another walk link was added to the North Novato station from TAZ 1049. All walk links have an average 

speed of three miles per hour in the travel forecasting model. 


September 2005


3.0 DEMOGRAPHICS 

Population and employment are two major components in forecasting travel demand. Fluctuation in 

these components over a period of time and across geographic areas invariably impact transportation 

facilities giving rise to increased congestion, traffic delays, and higher transit ridership. This chapter 

highlights the changes in demographics and employment estimates in the study area for the base year 

(2000) and the future year (2025). 

3.1 Population 

Population data was obtained from the MTC regional model, which was based on information from the 

Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). Although this information was developed before the 

2000 US Census data were released, the estimates are very close to each other. ABAG did a special 

set of forecasts that extended the horizon year of Projections 2000 from 2020 to 2025. 

Based on MTC forecasts, the 2025 population for Sonoma County is projected to increase to 

approximately 591,600 persons, reflecting a growth of almost 30 percent. Marin County is projected to 

increase to approximately 278,400 persons, showing a nominal growth of 11.2 percent. The growth is 

expected to increase overcrowding in residential areas in the study area causing increased congestion 

on Highway 101 and affecting other transportation facilities. Tables 3.1-1 and 3.1-2 present the change 

in population and the number of households between the study years. 

TABLE 3.1-1 

FORECAST GROWTH IN POPULATION, 2000-2025 

County 2000 2025 Growth % Growth 

Sonoma 455,305 591,597 136,292 29.9% 

Marin 250,402 278,401 27,299 11.2% 

Study Area 705,707 869,998 164,291 23.3% 

Source: ABAG Projections 2000 and MTC 

TABLE 3.1-2 

FORECAST GROWTH IN NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, 2000-2025 



Marin 99,504 113,631 14,127 14.2% 

Study Area 271,028 336,420 65,392 24.1% 


Figure 3.1-1 presents graphical illustrations of growth in population in Sonoma and Marin counties from 

2000 to 2025. It is observed from the figure that areas located adjacent to the corridor report a higher 

growth in population than the areas further from the corridor. The higher population growth zones near 

the corridor are mainly comprised of cities and towns such as Windsor, Santa Rosa, Rohnert Park, 

Cotati, Petaluma, and Novato. Novato is projected to have the highest population growth of 95.8 

percent. The dark shades in the figure represent zones with population growth ranging from 

approximately 61 percent to 100 percent and are located primarily to the east of the SMART corridor. 

As expected, the growth in households is similar to the growth in population. The study area is projected 

to grow by over 65,000 additional households by 2025. Sonoma County is projected to increase by 

approximately 51,000 households, or nearly 30 percent, and Marin County is projected to increase by 

approximately 14,000 households, or about 14 percent. 


September 2005


FIGURE 3.1-1 

FORECAST GROWTH IN POPULATION BY TAZ, 2000-2025 

Source: ABAG/MTC & Parsons Brinckerhoff, 2000 


September 2005


3.2 Employment 

Table 3.2-1 reports employment estimates for Sonoma and Marin counties by retail and non-retail 

categories. Between 2000 and 2025, Sonoma County is projected to have significant growth in nonretail 

employment of 63 percent compared with a growth of 28.2 percent in Marin County. The number 

of jobs in retail employment is expected to increase at a lower rate of 33 percent and 18 percent in 

Sonoma and Marin County respectively. Overall employment growth, however, is estimated to grow 

considerably at 47.6 percent for the entire study area. 

TABLE 3.2-1 

FORECAST GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT, 2000-2025 


Non-Retail Employment 


Marin 220,350 282,488 62,138 28.2% 

Study Area 587,330 880,567 293,237 49.9% 

Retail Employment 


Marin 26,670 31,498 4,828 18.1% 

Study Area 66,750 84,799 18,049 27.0% 

Total Employment 


Marin 247,020 313,986 66,966 27.1% 

Study Area 654,080 965,366 311,286 47.6% 


Figure 3.2-1 illustrates growth in total employment for the zones in the study area. It is observed from 

the figure that employment will continue to grow near the corridor especially in areas such as 

Healdsburg, Windsor, Petaluma, and Novato. The growth of employment near the corridor is higher 

compared with the growth of population. 


September 2005


FIGURE 3.2-1 

FORECAST GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT BY TAZ, 2000-2025 

Source: ABAG/MTC & Parsons Brinckerhoff, 2000 


September 2005


4.0 STUDY ALTERNATIVES 

As a part of the environmental analysis process for the Highway 101/SMART corridor, four alternatives 

were developed. The Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS)/Draft Environmental Impact Report 

(DEIR) can be referred to for a detailed description of each alternative. This chapter provides a general 

description of the alternatives and a more detailed review of how the alternatives were created for 

forecasting travel demand. 

4.1 No-Build Alternative 

The No-Build Alternative provided an initial platform for applying the SMART model and analyzing the 

transportation impacts of other alternatives. The alternative consists of physical characteristics of 

roadway that existed in 2000 and additional projects as identified in the MTC 2025 Regional 

Transportation Plan (RTP) for the San Francisco Bay Area, and amended in November 2002. In the 

study area, these future projects mainly include HOV widening projects on Highway 101 at the following 

locations: 

• Marin County Gap Closure: Lucky Drive to North San Pedro Road 

• Marin-Sonoma Narrows: Route 37 to Petaluma 

• Old Redwood Highway to Rohnert Park Expressway 

• Rohnert Park Expressway to Wilfred Highway 

• Highway 12 to Steele Lane 

• Steele Lane to Windsor River Road 

In the existing condition, transit stops or bus pads are located along Highway 101 in the general purpose 

lanes. These bus pads are accessible only to bus routes operating in the corridor. In the model, the 

routes using HOV lanes are coded to change lanes to the general purpose lanes to stop at the bus pad. 

A total of fifteen bus pads currently exist on Highway 101. They include: 

• Rohnert Park Expressway (Rohnert 

Park) 

• San Marin Drive/Atherton Avenue 

(Novato) 

• Alameda del Prado (Novato) 

• Ignacio Blvd (Novato) 

• Rowland Blvd (Novato) 

• DeLong Avenue (Novato) 

• Miller Creek Road (Marinwood) 

• Freitas Parkway “Terra Linda” (San 

Rafael) 

• North San Pedro Road (San Rafael) 

• Lucas Valley Road (San Rafael) 

• Paradise Drive and Tamalpais Drive 

(Corte Madera) 

• Seminary Drive (Mill Valley) 

• Tiburon Blvd and Blythdale Blvd (Mill 

Valley) 

• Lucky Drive (Larkspur) 

• Spencer Avenue (Sausalito) 


September 2005


The No-Build Alternative future scenario was designed to reflect 2001 bus service levels in the study 

area. The following express routes are included in the No-Build Alternative (refer to Appendix D for a 

complete list of all routes in the corridor): 

80_GG2 80_GG18 80_GG24B 80_GG34 80_GG50A 80_GG70A 

80_GG80A 80_GG4 80_GG20A 80_GG26 80_GG38 80_GG50B 

80_GG72 80_GG80B 80_GG8 80_GG20B 80_GG28 80_GG44 

80_GG54 80_GG74 80_GG93 80_GG10 80_GG24A 80_GG32 

80_GG48 80_GG56 80_GG76 80_GG97 

4.2 Express Bus Alternative 

The Express Bus Alternative includes two main components, increased frequencies and additional 

routes. A 15 percent increase in frequency was incorporated in the model by modifying the headways on 

several bus routes. Table 4.2.1 presents peak and off-peak frequencies on these routes. The No-Build 

frequencies are indicated in parentheses. 

Bus Route 

TABLE 4.2-1 

FREQUENCY IMPROVEMENTS TO BUS ROUTES 

Peak 

Headway 

Off-Peak 

Headway 

Bus Route 

Peak 

Headway 

Off-Peak 

Headway 

Sonoma Local_14RPL 30 (70) 60 (90) Sonoma Intercity_48NBL 60 (80) 90 (100) 

Sonoma Intercity_20MRL 30 (60) 90 (90) Sonoma Intercity_60HXS 45 (100) - 

Sonoma Intercity_20MRL- 30 (60) 90 (90) Santa Rosa CityBus_4 30 (60) 60 (60) 

Sonoma Intercity_26WB 60 (100) 90 (100) Golden Gate_GG24A 45 (100) - 

Sonoma Intercity_30NBX 30 (100) - Golden Gate_GG72 12 (15) - 

Sonoma Intercity_30SBL 60 (80) 90 (100) Golden Gate_GG74 12 (18) - 

Sonoma Intercity_34SNV- 60 (100) - Golden Gate _GG80A 30 (30) 24 (30) 

Sonoma Intercity_40WBL 60 (90) 90 (100) Golden Gate _GG80B 20 (30) 24 (30) 

Sonoma Intercity_44NBL 30 (75) 40 (100) Golden Gate _GG1 15 (30) 30 (30) 

Sonoma Intercity_44SBL 30 (60) 40 (100) Golden Gate _GG1- 15 (30) 30 (30) 

Sonoma Intercity_46SSUX 60 (100) 90 (100) Golden Gate _GG75 24 (40) - 


The Express Bus Alternative also included several key improvements to inter-county bus services. 

Fourteen new bus routes were defined as a part of this alternative – 12 area-to-area passenger lines and 

two express bus lines. In the travel forecasting model these routes were coded as Golden Gate Transit 

for convenience as it is acknowledged that a decision on the transit operator has not been made. They 

are designated GG_80_101 through GG_80_114 and are listed below: 

1. North Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_101 

2. East Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_102 

3. North Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_103 

4. East Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_104 

5. North Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_105 


September 2005


6. East Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_106 

7. Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Novato (via Highway 101): GG_80_107 

8. Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Novato (via Sonoma Mountain Parkway): GG_80_108 

9. Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Terra Linda (via Highway 101): GG_80_109 

10. Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Terra Linda (via Sonoma Mountain Parkway): GG_80_110 

11. Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to San Rafael (via Highway 101) : GG_80_111 

12. Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to San Rafael (via Sonoma Mountain Parkway): GG_80_112 

13. Express Bus: GG_80_113 

14. Super Express Bus: GG_80_114 

The twelve area-to-area passenger routes provide direct connection between residential areas and 

employment centers in the peak direction. These point-to-point long distance lines utilize the continuous 

set of HOV lanes on Highway 101 and supplement San Francisco bound bus services operated by 

Golden Gate Transit (GGT). The passenger routes have 60 minute headways per peak period in the 

peak direction (southbound in the morning and northbound in the afternoon), for a total of 24 round trips 

per weekday. 

The Express Bus Route service (a modification of the existing Golden Gate Transit Route 80), stops at 

many freeway bus pads and off-freeway transit centers along Highway 101 between Cloverdale and the 

Larkspur water transit terminal. To accommodate stops at most of the freeway bus pads on Highway 

101, the express bus service travels primarily in mixed flow lanes rather than in the HOV lanes. This 

route runs in the peak period and has a frequency of 120 minutes. Figure 4.2-1 illustrates the Express 

Bus stops along Highway-101. 

The Super Express Bus Route service, between Cloverdale and the Larkspur water transit terminal, 

stops at four bus pads and four off-freeway transit centers effectively utilizing the Highway 101 HOV 

lanes to reduced travel times. The frequency on this route is 120 minutes during the peak period. Figure 

4.2-2 illustrates the Super Express Bus stops along Highway-101. 

The Express Bus alternative also includes physical and service improvements. Two new freeway bus 

pads are proposed near Highway 101/Steele Lane interchange in Santa Rosa and Highway 101/State 

Route 116 (Gravenstein Highway) interchange in Cotati. 


September 2005


FIGURE 4.2-1 

EXPRESS BUS ALTERNATIVE – LOCATION OF EXPRESS BUS SERVICE STOPS 



September 2005


FIGURE 4.2-2 

EXPRESS BUS ALTERNATIVE – LOCATION OF SUPER-EXPRESS BUS SERVICE STOPS 



September 2005


4.3 SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Cloverdale to Larkspur 

This alternative provides passenger rail service along approximately 70 miles of the SMART corridor 

from Cloverdale in Sonoma County to the Larkspur water transit terminal in Marin County. In addition a 

15 percent increase in frequency on several bus routes as mentioned in Section 4.2 was also 

incorporated in this alternative. The passenger rail serves 14 stations at the locations shown in Table 

4.3-1. The rail service has a frequency of approximately 30 minutes in both southbound and northbound 

directions in the peak period and two trains during mid-day. The end to end travel time on the rail line is 

approximately 93 minutes, with an average speed of about 46 mph. Table 4.3-2 displays station-tostation 

distance in miles and Table 4.3-3 displays station-to-station travel times in minutes. Ridership 

forecasts for this particular rail alternative were developed for the Year 2025. 

With the exception of Downtown Santa Rosa, Downtown San Rafael, and Larkspur stations parking is 

provided at all the remaining rail stations. A limited number of park-and-ride (PNR) spaces are 

accommodated at the Downtown Petaluma station. Table 4.3-4 lists the traffic analysis zones input to 

the model which have the most likelihood of using a PNR facility available at a station. 

TABLE 4.3-1 

PASSENGER RAIL ALTERNATIVE - PASSENGER RAIL STATIONS 

Rail Station 

Location 

1. Cloverdale Asti Road south of Citrus Fair Drive 

2. Healdsburg Historic Depot at Harmon Street 

3. Windsor Windsor Road and Windsor River Road 

4. Santa Rosa / Jennings Ave Jennings Avenue and Range Avenue 

5. Downtown Santa Rosa Historic Depot at Railroad Square 

6. Rohnert Park North of Golf Course Drive at Roberts Lake Road 

7. Cotati Cotati Avenue and Industrial Road 

8. Petaluma / Corona Road Corona Road and McDowell Boulevard 

9. Downtown Petaluma 

Historic Depot at Lakeville Highway and E. 

Washington Street 

10. North Novato Redwood Boulevard and Atherton Avenue 

11. South Novato Ignacio Avenue and Highway 101 Interchange 

12. Marin County Civic Center Civic Center Drive and McInnis Parkway 

13. Downtown San Rafael Tamalpais Avenue between Third and Fourth Streets 

14. Larkspur NWP Right-of-way west of Marin Airporter 

Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff, Community Design + Architecture, 2004. 


September 2005


TABLE 4.3-2 

PASSENGER RAIL ALTERNATIVE - STATION-TO-STATION DISTANCE (MILES) 

Station 

Cloverdale 

Healdsburg 

Windsor 

Santa Rosa 

Jennings Av. 

Downtown 

Santa Rosa 

Rohnert 

Park 

Cotati 

Petaluma - 

Corona Road 

Downtown 

Petaluma 

N. Novato 

S. Novato 

Marin County 

Civic Center 

San Rafael 

Larkspur 

Cloverdale 0.0 16.6 21.6 28.3 30.8 35.9 38.6 46.1 47.1 55.9 60.0 65.0 67.6 72.3 

Healdsburg 16.6 0.0 5.0 11.7 14.2 19.3 22.0 29.5 30.5 39.3 43.4 48.4 51.0 55.7 

Windsor 21.6 5.0 0.0 6.7 9.2 14.3 17.0 24.5 25.5 34.3 38.4 43.4 46.0 50.7 

Santa Rosa - Jennings Av. 28.3 11.7 6.7 0.0 2.5 7.6 10.3 17.8 18.8 27.6 31.7 36.7 39.3 44.0 

Downtown Santa Rosa 30.8 14.2 9.2 2.5 0.0 5.1 7.8 15.3 16.3 25.1 29.2 34.2 36.8 41.5 

Rohnert Park 35.9 19.3 14.3 7.6 5.1 0.0 2.7 10.2 11.2 20.0 24.1 29.1 31.7 36.4 

Cotati 38.6 22.0 17.0 10.3 7.8 2.7 0.0 7.5 8.5 17.3 21.4 26.4 29.0 33.7 

Petaluma - Corona Road 46.1 29.5 24.5 17.8 15.3 10.2 7.5 0.0 1.0 9.8 13.9 18.9 21.5 26.2 

Downtown Petaluma 47.1 30.5 25.5 18.8 16.3 11.2 8.5 1.0 0.0 8.8 12.9 17.9 20.5 25.2 

N. Novato 55.9 39.3 34.3 27.6 25.1 20.0 17.3 9.8 8.8 0.0 4.1 9.1 11.7 16.4 

S. Novato 60.0 43.4 38.4 31.7 29.2 24.1 21.4 13.9 12.9 4.1 0.0 5.0 7.6 12.3 

Marin County Civic Center 65.0 48.4 43.4 36.7 34.2 29.1 26.4 18.9 17.9 9.1 5.0 0.0 2.6 7.3 

San Rafael 67.6 51.0 46.0 39.3 36.8 31.7 29.0 21.5 20.5 11.7 7.6 2.6 0.0 4.7 

Larkspur 72.3 55.7 50.7 44.0 41.5 36.4 33.7 26.2 25.2 16.4 12.3 7.3 4.7 0.0 


TABLE 4.3-3 

PASSENGER RAIL ALTERNATIVE - STATION-TO-STATION TRAVEL TIMES (MINUTES) 

Station 

Cloverdale 

Healdsburg 

Windsor 

Santa Rosa 

Jennings Av. 

Downtown 

Santa Rosa 

Rohnert 

Park 

Cotati 

Petaluma - 

Corona Road 

Downtown 

Petaluma 

N. Novato 

S. Novato 


Civic Center 

San Rafael 

Larkspur 

Cloverdale 0 16 23 31 34 40 44 50 54 66 73 79 84 93 

Healdsburg 16 0 7 15 18 24 28 34 38 50 57 63 68 77 

Windsor 23 7 0 8 11 17 21 27 31 43 50 56 61 70 

Santa Rosa - Jennings Av. 31 15 8 0 3 9 13 19 23 35 42 48 53 62 

Downtown Santa Rosa 34 18 11 3 0 6 10 16 20 32 39 45 50 59 

Rohnert Park 40 24 17 9 6 0 4 10 14 26 33 39 44 53 

Cotati 44 28 21 13 10 4 0 6 10 22 29 35 40 49 

Petaluma - Corona Road 50 34 27 19 16 10 6 0 4 16 23 29 34 43 

Downtown Petaluma 54 38 31 23 20 14 10 4 0 12 19 25 30 39 

N. Novato 66 50 43 35 32 26 22 16 12 0 7 13 18 27 

S. Novato 73 57 50 42 39 33 29 23 19 7 0 6 11 20 

Marin County Civic Center 79 63 56 48 45 39 35 29 25 13 6 0 5 14 

San Rafael 84 68 61 53 50 44 40 34 30 18 11 5 0 9 

Larkspur 93 77 70 62 59 53 49 43 39 27 20 14 9 0 



September 2005


TABLE 4.3-4 

TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES WITH ACCESS TO STATION PARKING 

Rail Station 

Traffic Analysis Zones 

1. Cloverdale 1046, 1047 

2. Healdsburg 1044. 1045 

3. Windsor 1040, 1041, 1042 

4. Santa Rosa / Jennings Ave 1014, 1017-1022, 1026-1030, 1034-1039 

5. Downtown Santa Rosa - 

6. Rohnert Park 1006, 1009, 1010, 1012, 1013, 1023-1025, 1031 

7. Cotati 1007, 1008, 1011 

8. Petaluma / Corona Road 997-999, 1000, 1004, 1005 

9. Downtown Petaluma 1001-1003 

10. North Novato 1050-1054 

11. South Novato 1055-1059 

12. Marin County Civic Center 1060, 1061, 1063-1066, 1069 

13. Downtown San Rafael - 

14. Larkspur - 


4.3.1 Local Shuttle System 

A local shuttle bus system is designed to distribute passengers at the work-end (i.e., non-home end) of 

their trip. However, the shuttles are also used as a means of access to the rail stations. A total of nine 

shuttle routes are proposed to serve the passenger rail stations in Downtown San Rafael, North Novato, 

South Novato, and Larkspur. These shuttles cater to the local populace living near a station but are 

primarily designed to serve the work end of the trip. The shuttles are free to passengers, and operate 

during the same hours as the passenger rail in the morning and afternoon peak commute periods. 

During the morning peak period the shuttles operate at six minutes headway and during the afternoon 

peak period they operate at 10 minutes headway. 

A key feature of the shuttle system is to provide dedicated service to the passenger rail, allowing for a 

shorter timed-transfer connection between rail and bus services. For example, once all passengers from 

a given train have completed transferring to the bus, the bus departs the station. This allows an average 

transfer time of three minutes between passenger rail and shuttle. If a train is delayed, the shuttle waits 

for passengers from its subsequent arrival. This is an important benefit because it removes the 

uncertainty of waiting time associated with traditional bus-rail transfers. 

Shuttles are scheduled to coincide with passenger rail timings traveling in the peak direction: southbound 

trains in the morning peak and northbound trains in the evening peak. Passengers traveling in the 

reverse peak direction may use shuttles but will experience a longer wait for a train. The routes are 

designed to permit a complete one-way loop in less than the headway of the train (i.e., less than 30 

minutes). This maximizes the efficiency of the service and minimizes out-of-direction travel for 

passengers. 


September 2005


4.4 SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Windsor to San Rafael Minimum Operable 

Segment (MOS) 

This passenger rail alternative referred to as the Minimum Operable Segment (MOS) provides 

passenger rail service in the SMART corridor from Windsor Station to the San Rafael Downtown Station. 

It has a similar operating plan as the Cloverdale to Larkspur passenger rail alternative including the 15 

percent increase in frequency on several bus routes indicated in Section 4.2. However, the alignment is 

shorter, extending approximately 49 miles rather than 70 miles, and is less expensive to implement due 

to its shorter length. The end to end travel time on this rail line is approximately 61 minutes, with an 

average speed of about 48 mph. The rail stations on this segment are identical to the full passenger rail 

alternative except it only includes those stations between Windsor and San Rafael with the same parkand-ride 

facilities. 


September 2005


5.0 RESULTS 

This section discusses the travel forecasting results for the Year 2025. Specifically, this section 

examines sample transit travel times for each alternative, system-wide transit summaries for daily and 

home-based work (HBW) trips, ridership for express bus and local shuttle routes, as well as station by 

station rail boardings. 

5.1 Transit Travel Times 

Transit travel times were estimated between strategically located traffic analysis zones (TAZs) in the 

Highway 101/SMART corridor for each alternative. The zones were selected based on having the 

highest population and employment concentrations in the corridor. Table 5.1-1 presents total population 

and total employment for these TAZs. 

TABLE 5.1-1 

HIGH POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES IN 2025 

TAZ City/Town Population Employment 

997 Petaluma 20,901 27,362 

1011 Cotati 28,421 30,064 

1025 Santa Rosa 17,622 30,644 

1041 Windsor 45,413 9,874 

1052 Novato 11,574 21,718 

1081 San Rafael 10,124 23,362 

1009 Rohnert Park 10,063 31,440 

1019 Santa Rosa 14,257 36,938 

1023 Santa Rosa 2,256 36,992 

1036 Santa Rosa 3,570 39,554 

1037 Santa Rosa 12,219 30,872 

1052 Novato 11,574 21,718 

1077 San Rafael 5,331 20,820 

1081 San Rafael 10,124 23,362 

Source: ABAG/MTC, 2000 

In the above table, the first six zones represent high population zones while the remaining eight zones 

represent high employment zones. Travel times between these two sets of zone-interchanges were 

estimated for each transit alternative and are shown in Table 5.1-2. The estimated travel times are the 

total travel time from TAZ to TAZ, including initial wait times at a bus stop or a rail station, all transfer 

times from one mode to another mode, the in-vehicle travel time (IVTT), and the access and egress time. 

In addition, the travel times indicate the best available transit paths between zones and are 

representative of a combination of different modes of travel. Figure 5.1-1 illustrates locations of the 

TAZs shown in the above table. 

The estimates indicate that travel times between zone-interchanges located at a longer distance are 

lower in each alternative compared to the No-Build Alternative. As an example, the distance between 

TAZ 1041 in Windsor and TAZ 1052 in Novato is approximately 38 miles and it takes 30 minutes less to 

travel by express bus or passenger rail than in the No-Build transit services. The Express Bus and the 

rail alternatives primarily provide point-to-point service to long distance travel and require fewer stops 

and transfers. These alternatives result in faster travel times compared to the No-Build, with possible 

savings in travel times of up to an hour. 


September 2005


No-Build 

TABLE 5.1-2 

FUTURE PEAK PERIOD TRANSIT TRAVEL TIMES IN MINUTES 

TAZ 

1009 1019 1023 1036 1037 1052 1077 1081 

CITY Rohnert Park 

Santa Rosa Novato 

San Rafael 

997 Petaluma 61 99 84 89 103 69 93 101 

1011 Cotati 38 75 61 65 88 88 112 119 

1025 Santa Rosa 34 40 33 40 83 88 99 111 

1041 Windsor 82 52 55 53 72 122 146 167 

1052 Novato 69 103 90 94 108 - 62 75 

1081 San Rafael 103 137 124 128 141 72 24 - 

Express Bus 

TAZ 

1009 1019 1023 1036 1037 1052 1077 1081 


Santa Rosa 

Novato 

San Rafael 

997 Petaluma 61 99 84 89 103 69 66 74 

1011 Cotati 38 75 61 65 88 88 72 81 

1025 Santa Rosa 34 50 33 40 83 88 99 111 

1041 Windsor 71 52 55 53 56 93 105 111 

1052 Novato 69 103 90 94 108 - 61 75 

1081 San Rafael 103 137 124 127 141 72 24 - 

Commuter Rail from Cloverdale to Larkspur 

TAZ 

1009 1019 1023 1036 1037 1052 1077 1081 


Santa Rosa 

Novato 

San Rafael 

997 Petaluma 40 83 44 54 87 56 61 73 

1011 Cotati 34 75 38 65 75 62 67 79 

1025 Santa Rosa 33 50 25 40 78 74 79 91 

1041 Windsor 45 52 37 53 67 81 86 98 

1052 Novato 56 100 60 91 104 - 45 57 

1081 San Rafael 98 132 92 122 136 72 24 - 

Commuter Rail from Windsor to San Rafael (MOS) 

TAZ 

1009 1019 1023 1036 1037 1052 1077 1081 


Santa Rosa 

Novato 

San Rafael 

997 Petaluma 40 83 44 54 87 56 61 72 

1011 Cotati 34 75 38 65 75 62 67 78 

1025 Santa Rosa 33 40 25 34 78 74 79 108 

1041 Windsor 45 52 37 53 67 81 86 97 

1052 Novato 56 100 60 91 105 - 45 56 

1081 San Rafael 99 134 95 124 138 74 25 - 



September 2005


FIGURE 5.1-1 

LOCATION OF TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES WITH HIGH POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 


September 2005


5.2 System-Wide Transit Summary 

5.2.1 Daily Transit Trips 

Table 5.2-1 presents a summary of system-wide daily transit trips for each alternative and compares to 

the No-Build transit trips in the study area. In addition to the new SMART services, the daily transit trips 

include transit trips by various sub-modes operating in the Bay Area including bus routes (local, 

express), light rail transit (VTA, MUNI), heavy rail (BART), commuter rail (AMTRAK, Caltrain), and water 

transit services. 

TABLE 5.2-1 

FORECAST 2025 SYSTEM-WIDE TOTAL DAILY TRANSIT TRIP COMPARISON 

Alternative 

Trips within and 

between Sonoma and 

Marin Counties 

Trips between Sonoma 

and Marin Counties and 

other 7 Bay Area 

counties 

No-Build Daily Trips 46,699 55,119 

Express Bus 

SMART Passenger Rail: 

Cloverdale to Larkspur 


Windsor to San Rafael MOS 


Daily Trips 46,965 56,896 

Difference from No-Build 266 1,777 

% Change 0.57% 3.22% 

Daily Trips 52,534 63,483 

Difference from No-Build 5,835 8,364 

% Change 12.49% 15.17% 

Daily Trips 52,702 63,395 


% Change 12.85% 15.01% 

On a daily basis by 2025, it is estimated there will be over 55,000 trips within and between Sonoma and 

Marin counties. In addition, it is estimated there will be another 46,000 or more daily transit trips, which 

either begin or end in Sonoma or Marin counties. As existing services are improved or new service is 

added to the corridor, transit travel within the corridor is projected to increase. As seen in the table, the 

passenger rail alternatives are projected to attract more transit trips within the study area than the 

Express Bus Alternative. The two passenger rail alternatives are forecast to attract more than 8,000 

daily trips within and between Sonoma and Marin counties, projecting an increase of 15 percent over the 

No-Build Alternative. 

In comparison to the No-Build transit forecasts, each of the three Build alternatives is projected to attract 

a considerable number of trips traveling in the Highway 101/SMART corridor, ranging from approximately 

three percent to 15 percent. The transit trip movement between the study area and the remainder of the 

Bay Area is projected to increase by less than one percent for the Express Bus alternative and nearly 13 

percent for the passenger rail alternatives 

5.2.2 Home-Based Work Transit Trips 

Table 5.2-2 displays system-wide home-based work (HBW) transit trips for each of the alternatives, and 

compares them to the No-Build HBW transit trips. HBW transit trips constitute an average of 

approximately 31 percent of the total system-wide transit trips in each alternative (Total 9-County Trips in 


September 2005


Table 5.2-1 vs. Table 5.2-2). However, when comparing the system-wide versus HBW trips occurring 

between Sonoma and Marin counties and the other seven Bay Area counties the percentage is much 

greater - approximately 75 percent. This indicates the majority of transit trips with one end in the study 

area are work trips. 

It is estimated there will be over 13,000 daily work trips within and between Sonoma and Marin counties 

in 2025, and approximately 41,000 work trips between the study area counties and the seven Bay Area 

counties in 2025. The number of transit trips increases as more transit service is added to the corridor. 

The system-wide change in 2025 home-based work trips compared to the No-Build trips is projected to 

range from an increase of 970 trips to approximately 4,000 trips within and between Sonoma and Marin 

counties. The SMART passenger rail service between Cloverdale and Larkspur, combined with other 

transit services in the Highway 101/SMART corridor, is projected to carry approximately 4,000 additional 

trips compared to the No-Build Alternative transit services. The movement of work trips between 

Sonoma and Marin and other counties in the Bay Area is expected to increase by approximately two 

percent to 4.5 percent. 

TABLE 5.2-2 

FORECAST 2025 SYSTEM-WIDE TOTAL HOME-BASED WORK TRANSIT TRIP COMPARISON 

Alternative 

Trips within and 

between Sonoma and 

Marin Counties 

Trips between Sonoma 

and Marin Counties and 

other 7 Bay Area 

counties 

No-Build HBW Trips 13,040 41,709 

Express Bus 


Cloverdale to Larkspur 


Windsor to San Rafael MOS 


5.3 Express Bus Ridership 

HBW Trips 13,477 41,938 

Difference from No-Build 437 229 

% Change 3.35% 0.55% 

HBW Trips 18,372 47,440 


% Change 40.89% 13.74% 

HBW Trips 18,419 47,599 


% Change 41.25% 14.12% 

Table 5.3-1 displays the total daily ridership for the 14 Express Bus routes by mode of access. The total 

ridership is projected to be over 2,300 daily riders who either drive or walk to the bus stop. It is observed 

that approximately 85 percent of the total ridership is by walk access to bus during the peak commuter 

period. The Express Bus (GG_80_113) attracts the highest ridership of 558 riders while the 12 area-toarea 

commuter routes attract a combined ridership of over 1,500 daily riders. A total of 230 riders are 

expected to travel daily by the Super Express Bus route. 

Table 5.3-2 reports the total home-based work ridership for the Express Bus routes for drive access and 

walk access. During peak commute period, a total of 1,341 riders are projected to use the express bus 

routes for home-based work related trips. A majority of these trips are walk-access boardings with a 

share of approximately 85 percent of the total trips. The area-to-area commuter routes reflect a 

combined ridership of 881 riders, followed by Express Bus with 156 riders, and Super Express with 108 

riders. 


September 2005


TABLE 5.3-1 

2025 TOTAL DAILY RIDERSHIP FOR EXPRESS BUS ROUTES 

Express Bus Route Drive Peak Walk Total 

North Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_101 0 1 1 

East Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_102 3 60 63 

North Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_103 8 71 79 

East Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_104 18 134 152 

North Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_105 3 42 45 

East Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_106 10 107 117 

Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Novato: GG_80_107 7 115 122 


Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Terra Linda: GG_80_109 13 195 208 


Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to San Rafael: GG_80_111 10 194 204 


Express Bus: GG_80_113 150 408 558 

Super Express Bus: GG_80_114 55 175 230 


Total Daily Ridership 315 2,065 2,380 

TABLE 5.3-2 

2025 TOTAL HOME-BASED WORK RIDERSHIP FOR EXPRESS BUS ROUTES 

Express Bus Route Drive Peak Walk Total 

North Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_101 0 1 1 

East Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_102 0 32 32 

North Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_103 4 45 49 

East Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_104 11 82 93 

North Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_105 1 23 24 

East Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_106 5 63 68 







Express Bus: GG_80_113 127 156 283 

Super Express Bus: GG_80_114 44 108 152 


Total Daily Ridership 196 1,145 1,341 


September 2005


5.4 Passenger Rail Ridership 

5.4.1 Daily Ridership 

Table 5.4-1 displays the balanced daily boardings and alightings for SMART passenger rail service 

between Cloverdale and Larkspur by mode of access. Table 5.4-2 displays the balanced daily boardings 

for the MOS between Windsor and San Rafael. An estimated 4,756 riders are projected to use the rail 

service on a daily basis in 2025 between Cloverdale and Larkspur and an estimated 3,464 riders are 

projected to use the MOS. 

TABLE 5.4-1 

2025 TOTAL DAILY RIDERSHIP FOR SMART PASSENGER RAIL: CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR 

Commuter Rail Station Stop 

Drive 

Peak 

Walk 

Off-Peak 

Walk 

Total 

Ridership 

Boardings 88 2 0 89 

Cloverdale 

Alightings 88 2 0 89 

Boardings 78 244 79 401 

Healdsburg 


Boardings 223 337 121 681 

Windsor 

Alightings 223 337 121 681 

Boardings 325 92 78 494 

Santa Rosa - Jennings Ave. 


Boardings 465 140 118 722 

Downtown Santa Rosa 

Alightings 465 140 118 722 

Boardings 273 90 37 400 

Rohnert Park 


Boardings 171 54 25 250 

Cotati 


Boardings 159 34 3 195 

Petaluma - Corona Road 


Boardings 200 110 53 362 

Downtown Petaluma 

Alightings 200 110 53 362 


North Novato 


Boardings 67 16 40 122 

South Novato 


Boardings 113 137 138 388 

Marin County Civic Center 

Alightings 113 137 138 388 

Boardings 83 49 176 307 

Downtown San Rafael 


Boardings 74 86 33 192 

Larkspur 


Boardings 2,398 1,454 905 4,756 

GRAND TOTAL 

Alightings 2,398 1,454 905 4,756 



September 2005


TABLE 5.4-2 

2025 TOTAL DAILY RIDERSHIP FOR SMART PASSENGER RAIL: WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL 


Drive 

Peak 

Walk 

Off-Peak 

Walk 

Total 

Ridership 

Boardings 201 180 82 463 

Windsor 

Alightings 201 180 82 463 

Boardings 304 72 71 447 



Boardings 407 129 98 634 


Alightings 407 129 98 634 

Boardings 249 64 29 342 

Rohnert Park 


Boardings 166 47 24 236 

Cotati 


Boardings 151 30 2 183 



Boardings 161 80 52 292 




North Novato 


Boardings 52 15 38 105 

South Novato 


Boardings 94 86 116 296 



Boardings 88 62 180 329 



Boardings 1,942 826 696 3,464 

GRAND TOTAL 

Alightings 1,942 826 696 3,464 


Drive access boardings are approximately the same as the walk access boardings in the rail alternatives, 

reflecting 50 percent of all rail boardings for the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative and 56 percent of all 

rail boardings for the MOS Alternative. The model results indicate that the three most heavily utilized 

stations are Windsor, Santa Rosa at Jennings Avenue, and Downtown Santa Rosa. The Downtown 

Santa Rosa station is estimated to attract the highest number of boardings and alightings, with a total of 

approximately 722 riders for the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative and 634 riders for the MOS 

Alternative. The elimination of Cloverdale, Healdsburg, and Larkspur stations in the MOS Alternative 

results in a decrease of approximately 1,300 riders compared to the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative. 

In addition to the loss in ridership from the three eliminated stations, the remaining stations also have a 

small decrease in ridership. 

In the two rail alternatives, the Novato stations have the fewest boardings and alightings with each 

attracting about 150 daily boardings and alightings across alternatives. 

5.4.2 Home-Based Work Ridership 

Table 5.4-3 presents home-based work balanced ridership for the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative by 

mode of access. The balanced ridership for the MOS Alternative is shown in Table 5.4-4. 


September 2005


In the year 2025 it is estimated that the passenger rail service between Cloverdale and Larkspur carries 

approximately 3,860 riders, reflecting approximately 89 percent of the total daily ridership. In the MOS 

Alternative, 3,092 riders are projected to travel between Windsor and San Rafael, reflecting 

approximately 75 percent of total daily trips. The drive access boardings constitute approximately 58 

percent of all boardings for each of the two rail alternatives. 

TABLE 5.4-3 

2025 TOTAL HOME-BASED WORK RIDERSHIP FOR SMART PASSENGER RAIL: 

CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR 


Drive 

Peak 

Walk 

Off-Peak 

Walk 

Total 

Ridership 


Cloverdale 


Boardings 65 77 31 172 

Healdsburg 


Boardings 196 174 58 427 

Windsor 

Alightings 196 174 58 427 

Boardings 297 74 52 423 



Boardings 429 126 82 636 


Alightings 429 126 82 636 

Boardings 252 78 27 356 

Rohnert Park 


Boardings 164 48 21 233 

Cotati 


Boardings 153 33 3 189 



Boardings 197 107 48 351 


Alightings 197 107 48 351 


North Novato 


Boardings 60 11 33 104 

South Novato 


Boardings 101 108 108 317 


Alightings 101 108 108 317 

Boardings 76 42 153 271 



Boardings 70 63 23 156 

Larkspur 


Boardings 2,220 999 642 3,860 

GRAND TOTAL 

Alightings 2,220 999 642 3,860 



September 2005


TABLE 5.4-4 

2025 TOTAL HOME-BASE WORK RIDERSHIP FOR SMART PASSENGER RAIL: 

WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL 


Drive 

Peak 

Walk 

Off-Peak 

Walk 

Total 

Ridership 

Boardings 183 161 54 397 

Windsor 

Alightings 183 161 54 397 

Boardings 278 64 48 389 



Boardings 376 117 68 561 


Alightings 376 117 68 561 

Boardings 229 59 21 308 

Rohnert Park 


Boardings 159 43 20 221 

Cotati 


Boardings 145 29 2 176 



Boardings 157 78 47 281 




North Novato 



South Novato 


Boardings 84 76 94 253 



Boardings 80 52 157 288 



Boardings 1,804 742 546 3,092 

GRAND TOTAL 

Alightings 1,804 742 546 3,092 


5.4.3 Peak Period Ridership 

Figures 5.4-1 and 5.4-2 display schematic representations of AM peak period boardings and alightings 

for each SMART passenger rail alternative. Peak boardings and peak alightings represent the sum of 

peak drive access and peak walk access ridership at each rail station during the morning (AM) commute 

peak period. In the figures, on and off indicate boardings and alightings respectively, at each station 

stop. The numbers between station stops indicate total segment volumes (or loads) in the direction of 

travel. As seen from the figures, the ridership is heavier in the southbound direction of travel than in the 

northbound direction of travel during the morning peak period; the reverse takes place in the PM peak 

period. 

In the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative, illustrated in Figure 5.4-1, the peak period load point is in the 

southbound direction between the Santa Rosa-Jennings Avenue Station and the Downtown Santa Rosa 

Station with a load of 750 riders. In the southbound direction at both Windsor and Santa Rosa-Jennings 

Avenue stations it is estimated that there will be over 250 boardings during the AM peak period. In the 

northbound direction the AM peak period load point is about 300 and occurs between Rohnert Park and 

Downtown Santa Rosa stations. 

Similar to the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative, the MOS Alternative’s peak load point in the 

southbound direction is between the Santa Rosa stations; however the load is less with approximately 


September 2005


570 riders (Figure 5.4-2). In the northbound direction, the peak period load point is between Cotati and 

Rohnert Park stations and is estimated to have approximately 300 AM peak period riders. 

FIGURE 5.4-1 

2025 PEAK PERIOD RIDERSHIP FOR CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR ALTERNATIVE 

SOUTHBOUND 

NORTHBOUND 

On Off On Off 

89 0 Cloverdale 

0 0 

89 0 

On Off On Off 

156 6 

Healdsburg 

0 160 

239 161 

On Off On Off 

356 49 

Windsor 

126 30 

546 65 

On Off On Off 

259 56 Santa Rosa - 

33 70 

Jennings Avenue 

750 102 

On Off On Off 

9 358 Downtown 

11 228 

Santa Rosa 

400 320 

On Off On Off 

29 151 

Rohnert Park 

96 88 

278 311 

On Off On Off 

66 28 

Cotati 

115 18 

316 215 

On Off On Off 

62 5 Petaluma - 

121 5 

Corona Road 

373 99 

On Off On Off 

41 223 Dowtown 

31 16 

Petaluma 

191 84 

On Off On Off 

59 36 

North Novato 

34 20 

213 70 

On Off On Off 

55 12 

South Novato 

11 6 

257 66 

On Off On Off 

60 98 Marin County 

43 50 

Civic Center 

219 72 

On Off On Off 


21 0 

San Rafael 

108 51 

On Off On Off 

0 108 Larkspur 

51 0 

TOTAL 

TOTAL 

1,241 1,241 693 691 


September 2005


FIGURE 5.4-2 

2025 PEAK PERIOD RIDERSHIP FOR WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL ALTERNATIVE 

SOUTHBOUND 

NORTHBOUND 

On Off On Off 

351 0 Windsor 

0 30 

351 

30 

On Off On Off 

253 39 Santa Rosa - 

16 69 

Jennings Avenue 

566 

84 

On Off On Off 


6 223 

Santa Rosa 

274 300 

On Off On Off 

25 118 

Rohnert Park 

85 87 

181 

302 

On Off On Off 

62 22 

Cotati 

112 17 

221 208 

On Off On Off 

54 4 Petaluma - 

120 4 

Corona Road 

271 92 

On Off On Off 


31 15 

Petaluma 

148 77 

On Off On Off 

46 35 

North Novato 

34 19 

159 62 

On Off On Off 

40 11 

South Novato 

11 6 

188 57 

On Off On Off 

25 96 Marin County 43 17 

Civic Center 

118 32 

On Off On Off 

0 118 Downtown San Rafael 32 0 

TOTAL 

TOTAL 

901 902 490 487 


September 2005


5.4.4 Shuttle Bus Ridership 

Table 5.4-5 and Table 5.4-6 report shuttle bus boardings by mode of access for each passenger rail 

alternative. An estimated 6,652 riders are projected to use the shuttle bus system in the Cloverdale to 

Larkspur Alternative and an estimated 4,756 riders in the MOS Alternative. It is observed that the total 

walk access boardings constitute over 90 percent of the total boardings in each alternative. For the full 

length alternative, the shuttle routes in Larkspur attract the highest number of daily riders with 2,000 

boardings followed by the routes in San Rafael with over 1,700 boardings. For the MOS Alternative, the 

shuttle routes in San Rafael report the highest boardings of 1,800 boardings followed by the routes in 

Petaluma with 1,200 boardings. Ridership on the free shuttles is higher than rail ridership for both 

alternatives due to the model assignment of non-rail riders to the coded shuttle system. 

TABLE 5.4-5 

DAILY 2025 SHUTTLE BUS BOARDINGS FOR CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR ALTERNATIVE 

No. Shuttle Route City/Station Peak Drive Peak Walk Off-Peak Walk Total 

1 80_Route_A San Rafael 0 23 65 88 

2 80_Route_B San Rafael 48 271 101 420 

3 80_Route_C San Rafael 90 435 417 942 

4 80_Route_D San Rafael 19 122 123 264 

5 80_Route_E Petaluma 28 292 112 432 

6 80_Route_F Petaluma 87 477 269 833 

7 

8 

9 

80_Route_G-A Novato 7 88 147 242 

80_Route_G-B Novato 20 133 350 503 

80_Route_H-A Marin CCC 8 40 87 135 

80_Route_H-B Marin CCC 65 510 128 703 

80_Route_L-A Larkspur 195 605 803 1,603 

80_Route_L-B Larkspur 46 322 119 487 


Total Boardings 613 3,318 2,721 6,652 

TABLE 5.4-6 

DAILY 2025 SHUTTLE BUS BOARDINGS FOR WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL ALTERNATIVE 

No. Shuttle Route City/Station Peak Drive Peak Walk Off-Peak Walk Total 

1 80_Route_A San Rafael 0 23 65 88 

2 80_Route_B San Rafael 49 274 102 425 

3 80_Route_C San Rafael 98 538 453 1,089 

4 80_Route_D San Rafael 19 123 124 266 

5 80_Route_E Petaluma 28 285 112 425 

6 80_Route_F Petaluma 88 476 273 837 

7 

8 

80_Route_G-A Novato 7 89 153 249 

80_Route_G-B Novato 19 136 363 518 

80_Route_H-A Marin CCC 9 44 87 140 

80_Route_H-B Marin CCC 73 527 128 728 


Total Boardings 390 2,515 1,860 4,756 


September 2005


5.4.5 Parking Demand 

Table 5.4-5 shows the estimated daily parking required at each station based on the projected drive-tostation 

boardings for the full length passenger rail alternative during peak periods. It was assumed that 

about ten percent of the total drive access boardings occur by kiss-and-ride (KNR) type of boarding. It is 

estimated that approximately 1,110 parking spaces will be needed to meet the overall demand for station 

parking. The Santa Rosa – Jennings Ave. Station has the highest parking demand at 225 spaces while 

Downtown Petaluma has the lowest demand at 30 spaces. Table 5.5-5 reports the daily parking 

required at each station for the MOS alternative. It is projected that a total of 985 parking spaces will be 

required to meet parking needs with Santa Rosa and Downtown Petaluma stations showing similar 

parking demand as in the full length alternative. 

TABLE 5.4-7 

2025 PARKING DEMAND FOR CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR ALTERNATIVE 

Commuter Rail 

Station 

Rounded to 

Nearest Five 

Spaces 

Cloverdale 175 157.5 78.8 80 

Healdsburg 97 87.3 43.7 45 

Windsor 401 360.9 180.5 185 

Santa Rosa - Jennings Ave. 496 446.4 223.2 225 

Downtown Santa Rosa 3 No Parking Provided 

0 

Rohnert Park 204 183.6 91.8 95 

Cotati 294 264.6 132.3 135 

Petaluma 313 281.7 140.9 145 

Downtown Petaluma 58 52.2 26.1 30 

North Novato 140 126.0 63.0 65 

South Novato 112 100.8 50.4 55 

Marin County Civic Center 104 93.6 46.8 50 

Downtown San Rafael 0 No Parking Provided 

0 

Larkspur 2 No Parking Provided 

0 

Total 2,399 2,154.6 1,077.3 1,110 


Drive Access 

Boardings 

Assume 

10% Carpool 

Parking 

Spaces 

Needed 


September 2005


TABLE 5.4-8 

2025 PARKING DEMAND FOR WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL ALTERNATIVE 

Commuter Rail 

Station 

Drive Access 

Boardings 

Assume 

10% Carpool 

Parking 

Spaces 

Needed 

Rounded to 

Nearest Five 

Spaces 

Windsor 370 333.0 166.5 185 

Santa Rosa - Jennings Ave. 471 423.9 212.0 225 

Downtown Santa Rosa 2 No Parking Provided 

0 

Rohnert Park 189 170.1 85.1 95 

Cotati 287 258.3 129.2 135 

Petaluma 298 268.2 134.1 145 

Downtown Petaluma 57 51.3 25.7 30 

North Novato 117 105.3 52.7 65 

South Novato 84 75.6 37.8 55 

Marin County Civic Center 67 60.3 30.2 50 

Downtown San Rafael 1 No Parking Provided 

0 

Total 1,943 1,746.0 873.0 985 


5.5 Transit Trip Length 

Transit trip length for each build alternative was developed based on the transit person-miles-traveled 

(PMT) reported by the model. Table 5.4-9 presents total PMT and the average person trip length for 

each alternative by mode of access. In the Express Bus Alternative, the trip lengths were computed only 

for the long distance point-to-point express routes i.e. Express Bus and Super Express Bus. 

From the table, it is observed that the Super Express Bus reports the highest trip length of 57 miles for 

drive access boardings and 29 miles for the peak walk access boardings. The long trip lengths could be 

attributed to fewer bus pads along its route and for effectively utilizing the HOV lanes on Highway-101. 

The Express Bus has shorter trip lengths of 15 miles and 11 miles for drive access and walk access 

boardings, respectively. 

In the case of passenger rail alternatives, a higher trip length of approximately 17 miles is reported in the 

southbound direction for peak walk access boardings. For the drive access boardings, the southbound 

trip length is higher at 15 miles in the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative than the MOS Alternative which 

reports a trip length of 11 miles. However, in the northbound direction both rail alternatives have an 

average trip length of approximately 11 miles for drive access boardings. The MOS Alternative shows a 

higher trip length of approximately 14 miles for peak walk boardings in the northbound direction while the 

Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative shows a shorter trip length of 10 miles in the same direction. 


September 2005


Express Bus 

Super Express Bus 

TABLE 5.5-1 

FORECAST TRANSIT TRIP LENGTH FOR BUILD ALTERNATIVES 

Express Bus Alternative 

Commuter Rail Alternative 

Total 

Boardings 

Person-Miles- 

Traveled (PMT) 

Average Person 

Trip Length (Miles) 

Drive 150 2,251 15.01 

Peak Walk 408 4,477 10.97 

Off-Peak Walk - - - 

Drive 55 3,136 57.02 

Peak Walk 175 5,083 29.05 

Off-Peak Walk - - - 

Total 

Boardings 

Person-Miles- 

Traveled (PMT) 

Average Person 

Trip Length (Miles) 

Cloverdale to Larkspur (Northbound) 

Drive 756 8,189 10.83 

Peak Walk 622 6,403 10.29 

Off-Peak Walk 235 2,106 8.96 

Cloverdale to Larkspur (Southbound) 

Drive 1,642 24,913 15.17 

Peak Walk 832 14,275 17.16 

Off-Peak Walk 671 6,901 10.28 

Windsor to San Rafael (Northbound) 

Drive 701 7,560 10.78 

Peak Walk 268 3,710 13.84 

Off-Peak Walk 139 1,371 9.86 

Windsor to San Rafael (Southbound) 

Drive 1,240 13,979 11.27 

Peak Walk 557 9,237 16.58 

Off-Peak Walk 555 5,465 9.85 


5.6 Vehicle Miles Traveled and Vehicle Hours Traveled 

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and vehicle hours traveled (VHT) for each future alternative were estimated 

using loaded highway networks from the model. VMT represents the product of highway traffic volumes 

and the vehicle distance traveled after trip assignment. Similarly, VHT represents the product of highway 

traffic volumes and highway congested travel time after trip assignment. VMT and VHT for the study 

area were estimated for morning four-hour peak period, morning peak hour and evening peak hour. 

Table 5.6-1 presents Year 2000 and forecast VMT and VHT by alternative for Sonoma and Marin 

Counties. 


September 2005


TABLE 5.6-1 

2025 VMT AND VHT FOR SONOMA COUNTY AND MARIN COUNTY BY STUDY ALTERNATIVE 

Four-Hour Peak Period 

Scenario 

Year 

4-Hour Peak 

Period VMT 

4-Hour Peak 

Period VHT 

Average Roadway 

Speed (Mph) 

No Build (Base) 2000 3,861,210 127,501 30.3 

No Build (RTP) 2025 4,829,900 171,557 28.2 

Express Bus 2025 4,832,840 171,401 28.2 

Cloverdale to Larkspur Rail 2025 4,789,470 168,435 28.4 

Windsor to San Rafael Rail (MOS) 2025 4,803,910 171,112 28.1 

Scenario 

Year 

AM Peak 

Hour VMT 

AM Peak 

Hour VHT 


Speed (Mph) 

No Build (Base) 2000 1,197,530 42,833 28.0 

No Build (RTP) 2025 1,607,490 80,006 20.1 

Express Bus 2025 1,605,410 79,649 20.2 



Scenario 

Year 

PM Peak 

Hour VMT 

PM Peak 

Hour VHT 


Speed (Mph) 

No Build (Base) 2000 1,202,500 42,014 28.6 

No Build (RTP) 2025 1,554,780 65,873 23.6 

Express Bus 2025 1,563,810 66,937 23.4 




Morning (AM) Peak Hour 

Evening (PM) Peak Hour 


September 2005

APPENDIX A 

2025 HOME-BASED WORK TRIPS 

SONOMA COUNTY 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 

Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

September 2005

PART I 

2025 TOTAL HBW TRIPS FROM SONOMA COUNTY TO SUPER-DISTRICTS IN BAY AREA (PART I) 

San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara 

County SD 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 

1 74,391 11,119 10,162 1,850 3,057 2,252 1,622 1,230 1,997 868 642 313 58 240 878 245 

2 91,541 44,429 24,412 6,616 8,021 4,876 4,480 2,823 3,188 1,483 1,577 626 553 250 1,318 1,868 

San 

3 112,883 22,575 66,398 9,541 19,404 6,652 7,881 4,574 4,289 2,374 1,861 881 381 342 2,558 2,556 

Francisco 4 45,274 11,716 22,543 7,481 6,292 2,073 2,368 642 2,392 454 882 437 460 91.6 535 606 

5 49,025 16,992 36,265 7,324 97,144 30,468 16,770 4,570 4,256 1,527 1,264 821 556 562 1,827 2,455 

6 19,167 3,449 7,845 1,349 45,695 71,284 33,691 9,669 12,146 3,640 2,294 1,906 869 722 2,298 2,185 

San Mateo 7 11,737 3,569 5,814 1,821 29,985 21,280 81,729 35,460 17,388 7,281 5,434 3,163 1,504 2,649 1,342 5,234 

8 3,668 472 523 147 2,930 4,754 18,349 60,782 52,880 8,010 11,353 7,285 2,991 2,912 661 3,368 

9 3,595 486 1,326 144 5,564 4,589 14,537 47,568 135,756 23,594 23,641 23,783 7,897 7,825 1,475 7,343 

10 2,202 503 750 129 3,692 3,391 11,632 26,864 98,799 65,656 57,893 19,938 18,119 9,939 1,371 6,673 

11 3,069 750 730 103 2,919 1,604 6,568 14,759 82,621 46,909 83,766 54,485 31,868 10,011 1,291 10,592 

12 2,491 553 2,417 195 3,315 2,067 10,120 26,200 96,061 39,557 70,363 76,351 28,009 19,855 4,792 18,064 

13 772 137 310 73.3 1,220 912 3,361 8,635 63,759 23,618 57,629 26,398 30,316 13,251 1,006 3,776 

Santa Clara 14 1,040 25.7 159 8.5 97.7 135 642 1,916 13,199 8,276 15,674 6,998 11,876 51,764 321 992 

15 10,102 614 1,597 77.8 3,324 3,681 3,445 2,564 20,053 2,613 5,189 9,606 1,755 548 102,778 13,383 

16 12,296 917 5,782 1,325 9,862 8,780 14,158 11,684 50,574 8,380 12,797 17,348 4,849 1,846 15,073 96,951 

17 19,316 3,356 4,763 1,648 10,062 13,343 10,023 3,189 9,230 2,447 3,651 3,150 777 802 26,886 41,676 

18 58,263 11,710 13,896 3,219 9,995 5,898 4,102 2,282 4,666 1,559 2,595 2,044 758 644 14,929 22,511 

Alameda 19 18,013 3,810 4,531 683 2,501 1,047 1,239 942 1,370 459 1,563 534 257 132 3,132 4,977 

20 31,762 3,427 11,623 1,559 5,163 1,550 1,922 497 1,080 578 661 296 481 171 4,703 3,360 

21 26,257 4,890 9,665 1,333 4,683 2,166 1,490 334 1,526 468 978 658 132 132 9,360 2,182 

22 20,691 2,576 5,192 684 2,466 1,486 869 296 472 187 328 359 148 133 5,322 1,532 

Contra 23 9,791 1,610 4,139 463 3,664 2,422 1,357 730 3,186 1,036 1,770 1,884 390 601 35,240 7,257 

Costa 24 7,153 2,779 4,050 656 2,404 1,194 1,189 464 2,393 373 789 1,024 235 394 16,402 3,074 

25 10,041 2,040 3,147 658 6,689 657 923 191 689 193 223 396 233 125 1,514 1,122 

Solano 26 6,149 1,940 2,601 460 6,012 667 617 493 990 315 663 533 200 336 2,706 1,830 

27 2,574 185 414 79.5 460 263 140 20.1 58.4 6.3 23.9 8.7 3.3 30.1 371 883 

Napa 28 117 77.9 85 36.5 208 56.1 16.4 9.2 49.6 39.1 35 4.9 2.9 2.7 26.1 47.1 

Sonoma 29 12,326 2,805 2,731 485 2,594 1,087 1,157 212 276 81.1 113 67.1 75 78.9 633 511 

30 8,653 796 1,237 365 981 200 341 42.6 142 7 31.6 106 17.1 3.1 249 274 

31 18,208 1,844 2,733 471 1,629 425 452 171 351 31.4 61.9 93.3 36.7 18.3 231 231 

Marin 32 28,236 3,764 4,509 931 2,773 515 473 148 193 144 160 177 9.4 24 268 201 

TOTAL 720,802 165,915 262,347 51,914 304,807 201,772 257,660 269,961 686,029 252,163 365,906 261,671 145,816 126,434 261,495 267,958 

Alameda 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit A-1 Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

September 2005

2025 TOTAL HBW TRIPS FROM SONOMA COUNTY TO SUPER-DISTRICTS IN BAY AREA (PART II) 

PART II 

Alameda Contra Costa Solano Napa 

Sonoma 

Marin 

TOTAL 


1 735 4,248 1,389 347 441 752 545 159 161 88.3 130 17 730 529 565 616 122,376 

2 2,539 7,287 3,288 830 1,343 855 788 484 386 155 330 40.4 1,888 1,224 1,521 1,569 222,587 

San 

3 3,551 8,072 4,880 1,238 1,858 853 799 700 224 154 159 34.4 951 513 1,021 1,584 291,740 

Francisco 4 952 3,897 1,294 623 1,375 197 287 224 63.2 53.4 79.5 11.1 688 206 443 819 115,457 

5 4,625 5,691 2,524 1,622 1,126 717 1,242 429 294 82.5 37.7 14.9 618 806 1,275 1,374 294,303 

6 8,221 3,383 1,304 606 730 552 1,517 204 73.5 20.9 9 5.5 217 134 665 267 236,117 

San Mateo 7 3,529 1,860 1,283 569 551 253 777 37 11.3 42.5 5.7 3.9 74.8 180 443 188 245,196 

8 1,368 683 473 84.8 303 94.1 358 42 5.2 5.8 2 14.9 82.7 144 144 196 185,086 

9 1,612 817 400 106 748 238 484 95.3 114 11.3 16.5 2.2 26 91.6 34.6 297 314,215 

10 2,105 658 280 69.7 112 157 508 41.2 35.2 45.8 5.3 24 168 126 25 78.3 331,990 

11 3,147 878 216 140 147 428 897 63 39.4 53.2 48 4.9 83.8 46.3 86 36.1 358,357 

12 4,392 1,695 530 150 274 351 1,714 60.9 51.9 78.9 13.1 6.8 98.4 14.4 60.8 58.6 409,959 

13 1,088 479 149 61.7 154 71.5 341 34.1 11 19.7 4.8 2.7 66.6 18.1 43.4 27.9 237,743 

Santa Clara 14 261 117 27.7 10.8 36.9 81.1 281 64.5 4.3 17.8 1.8 1.8 48.8 2.6 6.7 36.3 114,125 

15 21,976 17,250 2,719 1,863 4,104 4,388 19,157 1,157 159 168 80 46.8 679 231 187 138 255,631 

16 40,998 20,049 6,938 1,205 2,044 1,432 4,562 426 71.5 78.8 168 11.4 169 394 422 280 351,868 

17 90,929 62,076 10,959 3,568 3,230 2,386 6,457 1,146 352 256 90.6 26.9 901 294 738 401 338,127 

18 44,395 145,168 31,854 11,334 7,770 7,633 5,338 1,969 1,302 547 459 203 2,444 899 3,480 2,327 426,192 

Alameda 19 8,468 24,260 52,230 7,423 3,028 2,948 1,253 796 836 439 305 77.8 1,881 715 2,530 1,639 154,017 

20 5,986 24,904 25,594 74,056 11,274 5,223 2,852 3,678 2,605 1,391 636 202 2,841 1,787 5,746 3,892 241,500 

21 6,100 19,768 7,170 9,954 79,574 40,482 15,400 12,581 3,215 2,081 659 174 1,250 489 686 388 266,225 

22 4,394 15,114 7,004 5,435 19,565 33,140 9,125 4,578 1,584 438 147 52.5 585 239 440 321 144,900 

Contra 23 15,024 12,026 3,211 2,852 8,992 13,169 31,128 2,487 413 375 178 60.6 381 108 279 114 166,337 

Costa 24 5,598 12,541 2,604 5,576 42,492 15,444 7,164 89,844 2,044 2,177 457 150 1,094 275 448 324 232,802 

25 2,121 9,201 3,388 8,591 15,190 5,399 3,251 1,670 38,850 5,950 10,787 1,770 4,296 1,925 2,504 896 144,630 

Solano 26 2,121 8,605 1,580 13,165 17,247 5,994 2,817 4,781 38,446 129,481 15,968 1,814 3,730 1,781 1,780 769 276,587 

27 537 1,410 525 2,209 1,493 972 295 213 8,033 2,627 43,446 6,551 14,034 696 1,089 358 90,005 

Napa 28 27.8 108 186 407 354 114 22.2 9.2 911 686 10,351 15,494 2,962 27.7 66.5 17.9 32,560 

Sonoma 29 810 1,974 965 1,627 870 390 278 187 943 1,139 3,550 3,006 365,111 18,042 13,720 8,208 446,050 

30 456 693 445 562 240 331 446 139 345 131 199 41.4 9,061 16,293 11,941 4,445 59,212 

31 633 1,631 672 1,448 240 292 395 61.6 242 133 298 37.9 8,161 10,528 34,086 12,340 98,183 

Marin 32 719 1,592 1,208 1,102 311 640 349 406 197 117 338 77.4 3,909 3,758 8,358 23,398 89,005 

TOTAL 289,415 418,136 177,289 158,832 227,217 145,975 120,824 128,765 102,022 149,041 88,958 29,981 429,229 62,515 94,833 67,400 7,293,082 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit A-2 Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

September 2005

APPENDIX B 

2025 HOME-BASED WORK TRIPS 

MARIN COUNTY 



September 2005

PART I 

2025 TOTAL HBW TRIPS FROM MARIN COUNTY TO SUPER-DISTRICTS IN BAY AREA (PART I) 

San Francisco 

San Mateo 


1 74,391 11,119 10,162 1,850 3,057 2,252 1,622 1,230 1,997 868 642 313 58 240 878 245 

2 91,541 44,429 24,412 6,616 8,021 4,876 4,480 2,823 3,188 1,483 1,577 626 553 250 1,318 1,868 

San 

3 112,883 22,575 66,398 9,541 19,404 6,652 7,881 4,574 4,289 2,374 1,861 881 381 342 2,558 2,556 

Francisco 4 45,274 11,716 22,543 7,481 6,292 2,073 2,368 642 2,392 454 882 437 460 91.6 535 606 

5 49,025 16,992 36,265 7,324 97,144 30,468 16,770 4,570 4,256 1,527 1,264 821 556 562 1,827 2,455 

6 19,167 3,449 7,845 1,349 45,695 71,284 33,691 9,669 12,146 3,640 2,294 1,906 869 722 2,298 2,185 

San Mateo 7 11,737 3,569 5,814 1,821 29,985 21,280 81,729 35,460 17,388 7,281 5,434 3,163 1,504 2,649 1,342 5,234 

8 3,668 472 523 147 2,930 4,754 18,349 60,782 52,880 8,010 11,353 7,285 2,991 2,912 661 3,368 

9 3,595 486 1,326 144 5,564 4,589 14,537 47,568 135,756 23,594 23,641 23,783 7,897 7,825 1,475 7,343 

10 2,202 503 750 129 3,692 3,391 11,632 26,864 98,799 65,656 57,893 19,938 18,119 9,939 1,371 6,673 

11 3,069 750 730 103 2,919 1,604 6,568 14,759 82,621 46,909 83,766 54,485 31,868 10,011 1,291 10,592 

12 2,491 553 2,417 195 3,315 2,067 10,120 26,200 96,061 39,557 70,363 76,351 28,009 19,855 4,792 18,064 

13 772 137 310 73.3 1,220 912 3,361 8,635 63,759 23,618 57,629 26,398 30,316 13,251 1,006 3,776 

Santa Clara 14 1,040 25.7 159 8.5 97.7 135 642 1,916 13,199 8,276 15,674 6,998 11,876 51,764 321 992 

15 10,102 614 1,597 77.8 3,324 3,681 3,445 2,564 20,053 2,613 5,189 9,606 1,755 548 102,778 13,383 

16 12,296 917 5,782 1,325 9,862 8,780 14,158 11,684 50,574 8,380 12,797 17,348 4,849 1,846 15,073 96,951 

17 19,316 3,356 4,763 1,648 10,062 13,343 10,023 3,189 9,230 2,447 3,651 3,150 777 802 26,886 41,676 

18 58,263 11,710 13,896 3,219 9,995 5,898 4,102 2,282 4,666 1,559 2,595 2,044 758 644 14,929 22,511 

Alameda 19 18,013 3,810 4,531 683 2,501 1,047 1,239 942 1,370 459 1,563 534 257 132 3,132 4,977 

20 31,762 3,427 11,623 1,559 5,163 1,550 1,922 497 1,080 578 661 296 481 171 4,703 3,360 

21 26,257 4,890 9,665 1,333 4,683 2,166 1,490 334 1,526 468 978 658 132 132 9,360 2,182 

22 20,691 2,576 5,192 684 2,466 1,486 869 296 472 187 328 359 148 133 5,322 1,532 

Contra 23 9,791 1,610 4,139 463 3,664 2,422 1,357 730 3,186 1,036 1,770 1,884 390 601 35,240 7,257 

Costa 24 7,153 2,779 4,050 656 2,404 1,194 1,189 464 2,393 373 789 1,024 235 394 16,402 3,074 

25 10,041 2,040 3,147 658 6,689 657 923 191 689 193 223 396 233 125 1,514 1,122 

Solano 26 6,149 1,940 2,601 460 6,012 667 617 493 990 315 663 533 200 336 2,706 1,830 

27 2,574 185 414 79.5 460 263 140 20.1 58.4 6.3 23.9 8.7 3.3 30.1 371 883 

Napa 28 117 77.9 85 36.5 208 56.1 16.4 9.2 49.6 39.1 35 4.9 2.9 2.7 26.1 47.1 

29 9,410 1,646 1,806 247 827 181 172 58 97 38.7 57 29.7 20 42.5 266 249 

30 1,736 642 355 221 692 504 244 99.7 105 36.8 44.3 33 22.4 33.2 300 170 

Sonoma 31 1,180 517 571 17 1,076 402 742 54 74 5.6 11.6 4.8 32.6 3.2 67 93 

Marin 32 55,098 6,404 8,478 1,767 5,383 1,139 1,265 361 686 182 254 375 63.2 45.4 749 706 

TOTAL 720,802 165,915 262,347 51,914 304,807 201,772 257,660 269,961 686,029 252,163 365,906 261,671 145,816 126,434 261,495 267,958 

Santa Clara 

Alameda 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit B-1 Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

September 2005

2025 TOTAL HBW TRIPS FROM MARIN COUNTY TO SUPER-DISTRICTS IN BAY AREA (PART II) 

PART II 

Alameda Contra Costa Solano Napa Sonoma 

Marin 


TOTAL 

1 735 4,248 1,389 347 441 752 545 159 161 88.3 130 17 152 521 56 1,710 122,376 

2 2,539 7,287 3,288 830 1,343 855 788 484 386 155 330 40.4 648 1,074 165 4,315 222,587 

San 

3 3,551 8,072 4,880 1,238 1,858 853 799 700 224 154 159 34.4 340 466 145 3,117 291,740 

Francisco 4 952 3,897 1,294 623 1,375 197 287 224 63.2 53.4 79.5 11.1 292 324 72 1,468 115,457 

5 4,625 5,691 2,524 1,622 1,126 717 1,242 429 294 82.5 37.7 14.9 230 354 35 3,455 294,303 

6 8,221 3,383 1,304 606 730 552 1,517 204 73.5 20.9 9 5.5 81 128 9 1,066 236,117 

San Mateo 7 3,529 1,860 1,283 569 551 253 777 37 11.3 42.5 5.7 3.9 27.6 40 7 810 245,196 

8 1,368 683 473 84.8 303 94.1 358 42 5.2 5.8 2 14.9 60.2 14 8 483 185,086 

9 1,612 817 400 106 748 238 484 95.3 114 11.3 16.5 2.2 9.1 14.3 2.6 423 314,215 

10 2,105 658 280 69.7 112 157 508 41.2 35.2 45.8 5.3 24 125 40 3.5 229 331,990 

11 3,147 878 216 140 147 428 897 63 39.4 53.2 48 4.9 17.2 58.5 8.1 168 358,357 

12 4,392 1,695 530 150 274 351 1,714 60.9 51.9 78.9 13.1 6.8 46.3 45.2 6.9 134 409,959 

13 1,088 479 149 61.7 154 71.5 341 34.1 11 19.7 4.8 2.7 10.4 52.8 3.4 89.4 237,743 

Santa Clara 14 261 117 27.7 10.8 36.9 81.1 281 64.5 4.3 17.8 1.8 1.8 3.8 41 4 45.6 114,125 

15 21,976 17,250 2,719 1,863 4,104 4,388 19,157 1,157 159 168 80 46.8 128 537 14 556 255,631 

16 40,998 20,049 6,938 1,205 2,044 1,432 4,562 426 71.5 78.8 168 11.4 71 84 15 1,096 351,868 

17 90,929 62,076 10,959 3,568 3,230 2,386 6,457 1,146 352 256 90.6 26.9 368 417 116 1,432 338,127 

18 44,395 145,168 31,854 11,334 7,770 7,633 5,338 1,969 1,302 547 459 203 1,081 1,135 229 6,706 426,192 

Alameda 19 8,468 24,260 52,230 7,423 3,028 2,948 1,253 796 836 439 305 77.8 943 808 131 4,883 154,017 

20 5,986 24,904 25,594 74,056 11,274 5,223 2,852 3,678 2,605 1,391 636 202 1,209 1,443 188 11,426 241,500 

21 6,100 19,768 7,170 9,954 79,574 40,482 15,400 12,581 3,215 2,081 659 174 497 494 259 1,562 266,225 

22 4,394 15,114 7,004 5,435 19,565 33,140 9,125 4,578 1,584 438 147 52.5 185 350 50 1,000 144,900 

Contra 23 15,024 12,026 3,211 2,852 8,992 13,169 31,128 2,487 413 375 178 60.6 99 164 117 501 166,337 

Costa 24 5,598 12,541 2,604 5,576 42,492 15,444 7,164 89,844 2,044 2,177 457 150 414 566 114 1,046 232,802 

25 2,121 9,201 3,388 8,591 15,190 5,399 3,251 1,670 38,850 5,950 10,787 1,770 2,039 2,115 142 5,325 144,630 

Solano 26 2,121 8,605 1,580 13,165 17,247 5,994 2,817 4,781 38,446 129,481 15,968 1,814 1,634 1,894 202 4,331 276,587 

27 537 1,410 525 2,209 1,493 972 295 213 8,033 2,627 43,446 6,551 9,016 4,919 100 2,143 90,005 

Napa 28 27.8 108 186 407 354 114 22.2 9.2 911 686 10,351 15,494 854 1,931 177 112 32560 

29 451 1,377 690 1,136 516 261 147 133 647 871 2,726 1,431 60,623 41,458 2,431 25,410 155,451 

30 104 439 197 466 237 120 120 49 265 251 681 1,408 26,556 158,061 11,971 11,792 217,953 

Sonoma 31 255 158 77 25 116 10 10 4.1 32 17 144 167 8,756 35,119 20,137 2,768 72,646 

Marin 32 1,808 3,917 2,325 3,111 791 1,263 1,190 607 784 381 835 157 12,286 8,449 395 125,147 246,400 

TOTAL 289,415 418,136 177,289 158,832 227,217 145,975 120,824 128,765 102,022 149,041 88,958 29,981 128,799 263,118 37,312 224,749 7,293,082 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit B-2 Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

September 2005

APPENDIX C 

STATION-TO-STATION FARE MATRIX 



September 2005

STATION TO STATION FARE* MATRIX 

Station 

Cloverdale 

Healdsburg 

Windsor 

Santa Rosa 

Jennings Av. 

Downtown 

Santa Rosa 

Rohnert 

Park 

Cotati 

Petaluma - 

Corona Road 

Downtown 

Petaluma 

N. Novato 

S. Novato 


Civic Center 

San Rafael 

Larkspur 

Cloverdale $0.00 $1.92 $2.20 $2.57 $2.70 $2.99 $3.14 $3.55 $3.61 $4.09 $4.32 $4.60 $4.74 $5.00 

Healdsburg $1.92 $0.00 $1.28 $1.65 $1.79 $2.07 $2.22 $2.63 $2.69 $3.17 $3.40 $3.68 $3.82 $4.08 

Windsor $2.20 $1.28 $0.00 $1.37 $1.51 $1.79 $1.94 $2.36 $2.41 $2.90 $3.12 $3.40 $3.54 $3.80 

Santa Rosa - Jennings Av. $2.57 $1.65 $1.37 $0.00 $1.14 $1.42 $1.57 $1.98 $2.04 $2.53 $2.75 $3.03 $3.17 $3.43 

Downtown Santa Rosa $2.70 $1.79 $1.51 $1.14 $0.00 $1.28 $1.43 $1.85 $1.90 $2.39 $2.62 $2.89 $3.04 $3.30 

Rohnert Park $2.99 $2.07 $1.79 $1.42 $1.28 $0.00 $1.15 $1.56 $1.62 $2.11 $2.33 $2.61 $2.75 $3.01 

Cotati $3.14 $2.22 $1.94 $1.57 $1.43 $1.15 $0.00 $1.41 $1.47 $1.96 $2.18 $2.46 $2.60 $2.86 

Petaluma - Corona Road $3.55 $2.63 $2.36 $1.98 $1.85 $1.56 $1.41 $0.00 $1.06 $1.54 $1.77 $2.05 $2.19 $2.45 

Downtown Petaluma $3.61 $2.69 $2.41 $2.04 $1.90 $1.62 $1.47 $1.06 $0.00 $1.49 $1.71 $1.99 $2.13 $2.39 

N. Novato $4.09 $3.17 $2.90 $2.53 $2.39 $2.11 $1.96 $1.54 $1.49 $0.00 $1.23 $1.50 $1.65 $1.91 

S. Novato $4.32 $3.40 $3.12 $2.75 $2.62 $2.33 $2.18 $1.77 $1.71 $1.23 $0.00 $1.28 $1.42 $1.68 

Marin County Civic Center $4.60 $3.68 $3.40 $3.03 $2.89 $2.61 $2.46 $2.05 $1.99 $1.50 $1.28 $0.00 $1.14 $1.40 

San Rafael $4.74 $3.82 $3.54 $3.17 $3.04 $2.75 $2.60 $2.19 $2.13 $1.65 $1.42 $1.14 $0.00 $1.26 

Larkspur $5.00 $4.08 $3.80 $3.43 $3.30 $3.01 $2.86 $2.45 $2.39 $1.91 $1.68 $1.40 $1.26 $0.00 

* In year 1990 US dollars based on distance in miles between stations 

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit C-1 Travel Demand Forecasting Report 

September 2005

travel demand forecasting report - Sonoma County Transportation ...

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