travel demand forecasting report - Sonoma County Transportation ...

Appendix I: Travel Demand Forecasting Report
5.2 System-Wide Transit Summary
5.2.1 Daily Transit Trips
Table 5.2-1 presents a summary of system-wide daily transit trips for each alternative and compares to
the No-Build transit trips in the study area. In addition to the new SMART services, the daily transit trips
include transit trips by various sub-modes operating in the Bay Area including bus routes (local,
express), light rail transit (VTA, MUNI), heavy rail (BART), commuter rail (AMTRAK, Caltrain), and water
transit services.
TABLE 5.2-1
FORECAST 2025 SYSTEM-WIDE TOTAL DAILY TRANSIT TRIP COMPARISON
Alternative
Trips within and
between Sonoma and
Marin Counties
Trips between Sonoma
and Marin Counties and
other 7 Bay Area
counties
No-Build Daily Trips 46,699 55,119
Express Bus
SMART Passenger Rail:
Cloverdale to Larkspur
SMART Passenger Rail:
Windsor to San Rafael MOS
Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff
Daily Trips 46,965 56,896
Difference from No-Build 266 1,777
% Change 0.57% 3.22%
Daily Trips 52,534 63,483
Difference from No-Build 5,835 8,364
% Change 12.49% 15.17%
Daily Trips 52,702 63,395
Difference from No-Build 6,003 8,276
% Change 12.85% 15.01%
On a daily basis by 2025, it is estimated there will be over 55,000 trips within and between Sonoma and
Marin counties. In addition, it is estimated there will be another 46,000 or more daily transit trips, which
either begin or end in Sonoma or Marin counties. As existing services are improved or new service is
added to the corridor, transit travel within the corridor is projected to increase. As seen in the table, the
passenger rail alternatives are projected to attract more transit trips within the study area than the
Express Bus Alternative. The two passenger rail alternatives are forecast to attract more than 8,000
daily trips within and between Sonoma and Marin counties, projecting an increase of 15 percent over the
No-Build Alternative.
In comparison to the No-Build transit forecasts, each of the three Build alternatives is projected to attract
a considerable number of trips traveling in the Highway 101/SMART corridor, ranging from approximately
three percent to 15 percent. The transit trip movement between the study area and the remainder of the
Bay Area is projected to increase by less than one percent for the Express Bus alternative and nearly 13
percent for the passenger rail alternatives
5.2.2 Home-Based Work Transit Trips
Table 5.2-2 displays system-wide home-based work (HBW) transit trips for each of the alternatives, and
compares them to the No-Build HBW transit trips. HBW transit trips constitute an average of
approximately 31 percent of the total system-wide transit trips in each alternative (Total 9-County Trips in
Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 29 Travel Demand Forecasting Report
September 2005