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Appendix I: Travel Demand Forecasting Report 2.6.2 Non-Home-Based Work Modifications Modifications made to the non-home-based work trip purposes include only a transfer penalty, similar to the home-based work modifications. Due to the difficulty of compiling and modifying the mode choice source code for these purposes, the penalty was introduced as a time penalty in the input skim matrices instead of coefficients in the source code. The resulting impact on the choice of mode is identical. The penalties were only introduced when a passenger rail travel time was present. The final calibrated penalty for the walk access transfer trips was 60 minutes and 75 minutes for the drive access trips. 2.6.3 Walk Access Link Modifications In addition to the above noted modifications to the mode choice model, the project team also made some modifications to the walk access links. The walk links were recoded to better reflect the location of actual development relative to proposed rail stations. The modifications included shortening walk distances between several TAZ centroids and the associated rail stations and adding additional walk access links to connect additional TAZs to the rail stations. The main focus was at the Marin County Civic Center Station and Larkspur Station. At the Civic Center station three walk links were modified, TAZ 1063 was shortened from 0.8 of a mile to 0.4 of a mile, and TAZs 1061 and 1062 were added with a 0.6 mile access link and 0.35 mile access link respectively. Neither TAZ 1061 nor 1062 were originally included in the model, both TAZ centroids were over a mile from the rail station. At the Larkspur station the walk access link from TAZ 1081 was also shortened from over one mile to a half of a mile. Additionally, another walk link was added to the North Novato station from TAZ 1049. All walk links have an average speed of three miles per hour in the travel forecasting model. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 12 Travel Demand Forecasting Report September 2005
Appendix I: Travel Demand Forecasting Report 3.0 DEMOGRAPHICS Population and employment are two major components in forecasting travel demand. Fluctuation in these components over a period of time and across geographic areas invariably impact transportation facilities giving rise to increased congestion, traffic delays, and higher transit ridership. This chapter highlights the changes in demographics and employment estimates in the study area for the base year (2000) and the future year (2025). 3.1 Population Population data was obtained from the MTC regional model, which was based on information from the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). Although this information was developed before the 2000 US Census data were released, the estimates are very close to each other. ABAG did a special set of forecasts that extended the horizon year of Projections 2000 from 2020 to 2025. Based on MTC forecasts, the 2025 population for Sonoma County is projected to increase to approximately 591,600 persons, reflecting a growth of almost 30 percent. Marin County is projected to increase to approximately 278,400 persons, showing a nominal growth of 11.2 percent. The growth is expected to increase overcrowding in residential areas in the study area causing increased congestion on Highway 101 and affecting other transportation facilities. Tables 3.1-1 and 3.1-2 present the change in population and the number of households between the study years. TABLE 3.1-1 FORECAST GROWTH IN POPULATION, 2000-2025 County 2000 2025 Growth % Growth Sonoma 455,305 591,597 136,292 29.9% Marin 250,402 278,401 27,299 11.2% Study Area 705,707 869,998 164,291 23.3% Source: ABAG Projections 2000 and MTC TABLE 3.1-2 FORECAST GROWTH IN NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, 2000-2025 County 2000 2025 Growth % Growth Sonoma 171,524 222,789 51,265 29.9% Marin 99,504 113,631 14,127 14.2% Study Area 271,028 336,420 65,392 24.1% Source: ABAG Projections 2000 and MTC Figure 3.1-1 presents graphical illustrations of growth in population in Sonoma and Marin counties from 2000 to 2025. It is observed from the figure that areas located adjacent to the corridor report a higher growth in population than the areas further from the corridor. The higher population growth zones near the corridor are mainly comprised of cities and towns such as Windsor, Santa Rosa, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Petaluma, and Novato. Novato is projected to have the highest population growth of 95.8 percent. The dark shades in the figure represent zones with population growth ranging from approximately 61 percent to 100 percent and are located primarily to the east of the SMART corridor. As expected, the growth in households is similar to the growth in population. The study area is projected to grow by over 65,000 additional households by 2025. Sonoma County is projected to increase by approximately 51,000 households, or nearly 30 percent, and Marin County is projected to increase by approximately 14,000 households, or about 14 percent. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 13 Travel Demand Forecasting Report September 2005
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