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Deutsche Bank 1 - Historische Gesellschaft der Deutschen Bank e.V.

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Measures to reflate the economy<br />

In the field of public investment, the Fe<strong>der</strong>al Govern-<br />

ment programme, agreed in Decernber 1974, to stimu-<br />

late business activity provides for additional expenditure<br />

totalling over DM 1 bn. Stimulation of private investment<br />

is planned - the main element of the programme - by<br />

means of a 7.5% bonus, available for a limited period of<br />

time. The tax reform which became effective on January<br />

1, 1975, and which, in principle, relieved the tax burden<br />

on low and medium incoine groups, is expected to give<br />

some impetus to private consumption. However, judging<br />

by the reform's first public echoes, it appears doubtful<br />

whether the effects hoped for will actually materialise.<br />

At any rate, dissimilarly stronger impulses should be<br />

generated by public deficits in 1975 totalling DM 50 to 60<br />

bn.<br />

We can <strong>der</strong>ive opportunities for overcoming the re-<br />

cession in the second half of 1975 from the overall effect<br />

of these measures. But there will only be a firmly-based,<br />

new economic upswing if private investments expand<br />

again. It could well be that the investrnent bonus alone<br />

will not suffice; companies' earnings must also show a<br />

clear improvement. So, it is a question of reducing the<br />

cost burdens which still exist. Besides this, it will be of<br />

the utmost importance that the uncertainties stemming<br />

from the world economic situation are resolved.<br />

There is a questionable side to the cyclical stimulus<br />

which may be expected from the public sector. Budget<br />

deficits amounting to DM 50-60 bn. should have a<br />

strong inflationary effect, in so far as they are financed<br />

not via the capital market but by obtaining more credit.<br />

But the issuing of loans on the capital market also re-<br />

quires careful regulation in accordance with market con-<br />

ditions.<br />

The desired "upturn in stability" has still not materi-<br />

alised. And without the confidence of trade arid industry<br />

in long-term prospects, "stimulative injections", howev-<br />

er massive they may be, will not succeed in producing it<br />

by force. It is particularly important in this connection<br />

that in wage negotiations due consi<strong>der</strong>ation be given to<br />

the substantial changes that have taken place in the eco-<br />

nomic situation. This was happily the case in the most<br />

recent tariff agreements concluded in the metal-using<br />

industry and the public service sector.<br />

There seems to be all the more reason for the Fe<strong>der</strong>al<br />

Government, even in the next few, certainly difficult<br />

months, not to jeopardise by excessive deficit spending<br />

the Progress achieved so far, with great effort, in this<br />

area.<br />

Increase in precautionary saving<br />

There has been a marked increase in private saving<br />

since Spring 1974. Thus, the savings ratio which in 1973<br />

had fallen by about one percentage point to 13.6% has<br />

returned to its 1972 level. Amongst the reasons for<br />

saving, the precautionary rnotive yained ground as the<br />

economy grew cooler. Many private households tried to<br />

reduce their expenditure and invest reserves where pos-<br />

sible. Accordingly, these savers prcferred more liquid<br />

forms of investment, above all, the savings-book meth-<br />

od with no special time commitment. In a certain sense,<br />

one can speak of a return to the savings-book.<br />

In the Course of 1974, it was possible to reduce consi-<br />

<strong>der</strong>ably the interest rate gap betweeri time balances and<br />

savings deposits, since the Bundesbank's less restric-<br />

tive liquidity policy no longer made it necessary to pro-<br />

cure deposits almost "at any price". Consequently,<br />

some time balances found their way back to savings ac-<br />

Counts again. In many cases, as profits and liquidity<br />

deteriorated, enterprises used time balances, with<br />

which tliey had taken advantage of the particularly high<br />

interest rates in 1973, to finance company projects.<br />

Structure of deposits back to normal<br />

In 1974, as a result of these redispositions, the struc-<br />

ture of deposits with rnost banks returned to normal<br />

again.<br />

Net inpayments on savings accounts in 1974 amount-<br />

ed to DM 30.2 bn. whilst in 1973 they had risen by only<br />

DM 14.3 bri. On the other hand, there was only slight<br />

growth in time deposits in 1974, whereas in the previous<br />

year they had increased by the record amount of DM 41<br />

bn.<br />

The increase in savings deposits was reflected above<br />

all in accounts with legal period of notice (+14.3%).<br />

Only premium-bearing savings deposits recorded a<br />

higher increase (+ 18.7% ).<br />

The return to a more balanced relationship between<br />

savings and time deposits with most banks helped to<br />

improve the earnings position again which had deterio-<br />

rated sharply in 1973. Financing costs fell and there was

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