ATM-Weather Integration Plan - Joint Planning and Development ...

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Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) DRAFT v0.7 ATM-Weather Integration Plan 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 Tennessee Valley. The goal is to correctly transform the forecast into sector impacts quantified by the ATM impact model that applies, for instance CWAM model [CRD07, SWG08]. The ATM-impact model may have a flow plan and decision points as an input in order to determine the demand flow direction and quantity. In this example, the northern polygons were false alarms – areas where events were forecast, but did not occur. Convection occurring over the southeast, ahead of the squall line, was not captured by the forecast, and the sectors were considered missed events. 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 Figure B-13 Sector-based verification of a 2-hour forecast and observations (impacted sectors are color-coded to depict the verification results). In NextGen, accurate and consistent weather information will be the foundation of the 4D weather Single Authoritative Source (SAS) for ATM operations. User-specific evaluation of weather forecast quality plays a significant role in providing accurate and consistent weather information to the SAS. ATM impact models must be tied into the evaluation of weather forecast quality in a way that the ATM impact is accurately predicted in measures that are meaningful to the ATM application. B-1.15 Conditioning ATM Impact Models into User-relevant Metrics NextGen ATM planners and automated DSTs need useful weather information for efficiently planning, managing, and scheduling the flow of air traffic across the NAS. Significant efforts are currently underway to provide improved forecasts of convective weather for traffic flow managers to help them increase air space usage efficiency during times of convective weather impacts. However, due to the increased workload created by convective weather impacting congested air traffic routes and other factors, increased forecast performance does not always translate directly into more efficient operations. Weather forecasts need to be processed in a way that accounts for the ATM strategic planning procedures making weather information easily digestible for ATM DSTs and their users, in the particular format that is required (e.g., as shown in Figure B-14). In order to translate the weather forecasts into useful information for ATM B-18 April 22, 2009
Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) DRAFT v0.7 ATM-Weather Integration Plan 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 planners, weather forecasts need to be calibrated, not with respect to meteorological criteria, but with respect to operational planning criteria. Since the airlines participate in the ATM process through Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) processes [BCH08], calibrated ATM-impacts must be expressed in meaningful terms to the airlines (dispatch and ATC coordinators) as well as to the ATSP. When planning and scheduling flows of air traffic to cross the NAS, one must project flight schedules and trajectories and weather forecast information into an ATM impact model to arrive at delay estimates (arrival and airborne delays), cancellation estimates, and cost estimates. 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 (a) Convective Forecast (b) Pixel-based impact (c) Sector-based impact (d) Route-based impact Figure B-14 Convective forecast transformed into ATM impact in various formats. TFM planning requires accurate, consistent, and calibrated impacts, as illustrated in Figure B-15. For instance, weather information (un-calibrated and operationally calibrated) must be ingested into ATM impact models that properly account for sector-to-sector queuing in order to measure delay costs associated with the weather forecast and expected demand on sectors. When operationally calibrated weather information is introduced into ATM impact models, costs must be close to those cost associated with ‘perfect’ knowledge of the weather [MKL09]. In NextGen, post-process analysis can be used to adjust the bias on ATM impact models so that future ATM impacts best model actual costs. Ultimately, improving the transformation of weather information into ATM impacts will reduce air traffic delay costs. In NextGen, it will be critical that the impacts of weather information be calibrated with respect to ATM operational decisions for effective planning and automated decision support. 545 546 547 548 (a) Original Convective Forecast (b) ATM Impact Uncalibrated (c) ATM Impact Calibrated Figure B-15 Convective forecasts for use by automated ATM planners (impacted sectors are red for high impact and blue no impact). B-19 April 22, 2009
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