0306E - Faculty of Social Sciences - UniversitÃ© d'Ottawa

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Table A.1. ADF Unit Root Test Log(DOM) Log(TRANS) Log(INT) Series in Levels t-statistic (p¡value) ¡1:30 (0:88) ¡2:12 (0:53) ¡1:90 (0:65) Series in First Di¤erences t-statistic (p¡value) ¡4:03 (0:001) ¡3:84 (0:02) ¡6:38 (0:00) Figures in parantesis correspond to one-sided p-values <strong>of</strong> the t-stat value calculated using Davidson and MacKinnon (1993). The lag order with the minimum BIC was selected with a maximum <strong>of</strong> 14 lags. All samples correspond to 1985:12-2001:02 (207 observations) which is the sample used in forecast evaluation. Table A.2. Seasonal Unit Root Tests Domestic k AIC = 24 Transborder k AIC = 26 International k AIC = 14 t b¼1 -1.59 -2.52 -3.02 t b¼2 -0.79 -0.83 -0.24 F b¼3 ;b¼ 4 2.40 0.01 2.56 F b¼5 ;b¼ 6 0.55 4.92 6.67 ¤¤ F b¼7 ;b¼ 8 6.54 ¤¤ 1.03 0.29 F b¼9 ;b¼ 10 3.45 6.94 ¤¤ 10.29 ¤¤¤ F b¼11;b¼12 0.39 0.39 4.44 ¤¤ and ¤¤¤ denotes signi…cance at 5% and 1% respectively. The …lter applied to each series is: a) Domestic: (1 ¡ L)(1 + L)(1 + L 2 )(1 + L + L 2 )(1 + p 3 + L 2 )(1 ¡ p 3L + L 2 ); b) Transborder: (1 ¡L)(1+L)(1+ L 2 )(1 +L + L 2 )(1 ¡L + L 2 )(1 ¡ p 3L +L 2 ); c) International: (1 ¡ L)(1 + L)(1 + L 2 )(1 ¡ L + L 2 )(1 ¡ p 3L + L 2 ): 21
Table A.3. Canadian Air Passenger Market Distribution 1997 1999 2001 Domestic Market Transborder Sector % Passengers Captured by: % % % Ontario 40 43 46 British Columbia 17 15 14 Quebec 12 14 14 Alberta 15 12 10 Others 17 16 15 % Passengers Captured by: Ontario 49 51 50 British Columbia 17 15 15 Quebec 16 17 19 Alberta 11 10 11 Others 7 6 6 International Sector % Passengers Captured by: Ontario 44 45 47 British Columbia 22 21 20 Quebec 18 19 20 Alberta 9 9 8 Others 7 6 6 Data is based on the Billing and Setllement Plan (BSP) which is collected by the IATA. It captures all the airline tickets sold by Canadian travel agents. 22
Page 1 and 2: DÉPARTEMENT DE SCIENCE ÉCONOMIQUE
Page 3 and 4: Abstract This paper uses six time s
Page 5 and 6: 2 Canadian Air Passenger Data In th
Page 7 and 8: 0.1 Jan 0.2 0.1 Feb 0.1 March 0.0 0
Page 9 and 10: meaningful elasticities for each ai
Page 11 and 12: dummy variables. Dummy variables ar
Page 13 and 14: where the disturbance ² t is assum
Page 15 and 16: 3.6 Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots
Page 17 and 18: The …rst forecast evaluation crit
Page 19 and 20: as di¤erent ‘scenario’ forecas
Page 21 and 22: [6] Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1
Page 23: 6 Appendix A In this appendix we pr
Page 27 and 28: Table A.5. Forecast comparisons and
Page 29 and 30: 7 Appendix B In this appendix, we p
Page 31 and 32: Equation B.3. Estimated AR Model fo
Page 33 and 34: Equation B.6. Estimated SUR Model f
Page 35 and 36: Equation .B.10. Estimated PAR Model
Page 37 and 38: Equation B.12. Estimated PAR Model
Page 39 and 40: Equation B.14. Estimated Filtered A
Page 41 and 42: Equation B.17. Estimated STSM Model
Page 43 and 44: 8 Appendix C In this appendix, the
Page 45 and 46: Equation C.3. Estimated AR Model fo
Page 47 and 48: Equation C.5. Estimated AR Model fo
Page 49: Equation C.7. Estimated STSM Model

0306E - Faculty of Social Sciences - UniversitÃ© d'Ottawa

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?