Predicting and evaluating extreme weather events

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Severe Weather As model resolution increases, some severe weather phenomena, such as hurricanes, can be predicted. However, other types of severe weather may still require higher resolution. • Use large-scale indicators to analyze conditions ripe for severe weather. • Use climate models as drivers for finer scale weather models. • Statistical approach to current trends in observations. • Other?
Large-scale indicators for Severe weather Non-severe Severe Significant Non-tornadic Significant Tornadic hail < 1.9 cm. (3/4 in.) diameter winds < 55 kts. no tornado Hail ≥ 1.9 cm. diameter winds ≤ 55 kts. and < 65 kts. or tornado Hail ≥ 5.07 cm. (2 in.) diameter Winds ≥ 65 kts. Same as sig. tornadic with F2 (or greater) tornado.
Page 1 and 2: Predicting and evaluating extreme w
Page 3 and 4: Motivation: Defining Extreme Events
Page 5 and 6: Motivation Colorado Lottery Pr{Winn
Page 7 and 8: Motivation Colorado Lottery Can als
Page 9 and 10: Motivation Colorado Lottery Another
Page 11 and 12: Background: Extreme Value Theory (E
Page 13 and 14: Background GEV Three parameters: lo
Page 15 and 16: Background Block Maxima vs. POT
Page 17 and 18: Example Fort Collins, Colorado dail
Page 19 and 20: Extremes vs Extreme Impacts Extreme
Page 21 and 22: What is a drought? "a period of abn
Page 23: Model/Reanalysis Resolution Banff
Page 27 and 28: CAPE (W max ) and 0-6 km shear data
Page 29 and 30: Large-scale indicators for Severe w
Page 41 and 42: http://www.assessment.ucar.edu/tool
Page 43: Discussion • How do we verify cli

Predicting and evaluating extreme weather events

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