training exercises - Tellus Institute

1.3.3 Reference Scenario
You are now ready to create your first scenario, analyzing how household energy demands
are likely to evolve over time in the Reference scenario. Click the Manage Scenarios button
( ) and use the Scenario Manager screen to add a first scenario. Give it the name
“Reference” and the abbreviation “REF”. Add an explanatory note to describe the scenario,
e.g., “business-as-usual development; official GDP and population projections; no new policy
measures.”
Exit the scenario manager and, if necessary, select the “Reference” scenario from the
selection box at the top of the screen. Now enter the assumptions and predictions of the
future data in Freedonia as described below.
Hint: If you wish to add branches or to edit the base year data you should return to
Current Accounts.
First enter the basic demographic changes that are expected to take place in Freedonia. The
number of households is expected to grow from 8 million in the year 2000 at 3% per year.
Hint: To enter a growth rate, press Ctrl-G or click on the button attached
to the expression field and select “Growth Rate” (you must be in scenarios to
see this option). You can also type “Growth(3%)” directly as the expression.
Urban Households
• By 2030, 45% of Freedonia’s households will be in urban areas.
Hint: This is an example of a common situation in LEAP, one in which you wish to
specify just a few data values (2000, implicitly, and 2030) and then have LEAP
interpolate to calculate the values of all the years in-between. You can enter
interpolated data in a number of different ways. The simplest way is to click on the
button attached to the expression field and select “End Year Value”. Then simply
type in the value 45. When you click OK, LEAP will enter an “Interp” function into
your expression. You can also type the “Interp" function directly into the expression
field as “Interp(2030, 45)”.
• Increased preference for electric stoves results in a 55% market share by 2030.
• The energy intensity of electric and gas stoves is expected to decrease by half a
percent every year due to the penetration of more energy-efficient technologies.
• As incomes rise and people purchase larger appliances, annual refrigeration intensity
increases to 600 kWh per household by 2030.
• Similarly, annual lighting intensity increases to 500 kWh per household by 2030
• The use of other electricity-using equipment grows rapidly, at a rate of 2.5% per year.
Hint: To specify a decrease, simply enter a negative growth rate.
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