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Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 6 | 2011 - Global Sectors Review Contents no.6 Global Sectors Review Global Sectors Review Editorial page 3 Business sector forecasts page 4 Indicators page6 Sector analyses page 10 Food products and beverage > No standing still page 8 Consumer electronics > Everything is converging page 9 Pharmaceuticals > Expiring patents page 10 Automobiles > Idling page 11 Automotive components > A winner from the crisis page 12 Aeronautics > Upwinds page 13 Chemicals > In tune with the health of world trade page 14 Construction > Dispersed and fragile growth page 15 Energy > Oil up, nuclear power down page 16 Air transport > Still under pressure page 17 Information and communication technology > Forced to innovate page 18 Contributions page19 Statistical annex page20 Implantations page 22 ◾Construction ◾Air transport ◾Consumer electronics ◾ Automotive components ◾ Rail, maritime & aeronautics equipment ◾Machinery ◾Manufacture of IT and telecoms equipment ◾Paper and pulp ◾Chemicals ◾Steel ◾Semiconductors and components ◾Distribution ◾Food and beverages ◾Pharmaceuticals ◾Automobiles ◾Energy Euler Hermes Economic Outlook – Global Sectors Review is issued twice annually by Euler hermes analysts of the different companies in the group for the clients of Euler Hermes. It is also available on subscription for other businesses and organisations. Reproduction is authorised, so long as mention of source is made. o Publication Director: Wilfried Verstraete • Business sectors Manager: Yann Lacroix • Sector economists: Bruno Goutard, Marc Livinec, Didier Moizo • Has also contributed: Dan North• Graphic Design: Claire Mabille • Production editors: Anne-Marie Bégoc, Martine Benhadj • Administration: Anne-Marie Bégoc • Translation: Charles Prager – London • For further information, contact: the Market Management, Strategic and Economic Studies Department of Euler Hermes at 1, rue Euler, 75008 Paris, France – Tel: +33 (0)1 40 70 53 77 > Euler Hermes is a limited company with a Directoire and Supervisory Board, with a capital of 14,691,191.20 euros. • Photoengraving: Evreux Compo, Evreux, France – Permit July 2011 — Bull 1173; ISSN 1 162 – 2 881 o July 29, 2011 2
Economic Outlook no. 6 | 2011 - Global Sectors Review Euler Hermes Editorial Facing a flagging recovery: a revival via the green economy? The world economy achieved growth of better than 4% in 2010, admittedly largely driven by the emerging countries (+7% in 2010, against only +2.5% in the OECD). However, the initial industrial output figures for Q2 2011 show a sharp deceleration in growth, and, to raise worries that bit further, you need only to look at the rating agency responses to the state of public debt in many OECD countries and, above all, their ability to pay off that debt. Indeed, in order to restore market confidence in their future repayment capacity, many OECD countries have had to implement large-scale austerity plans, one of whose consequences will be a fall in domestic demand, and in similar fashion, lower production volumes for some of their own industries. A perfect illustration of this is the drop in new car sales in two of the countries now in difficulty: Spain, where sales fell by more than half between 2007 and 2010, and Greece, down by nearly two-thirds over the same period! But beyond focusing on total gross debt as a percentage of GDP, it is the use of that debt on which we need to reflect. Like the emerging countries, which benefit from their infrastructure investments expenditure to support their growth, the OECD countries could help foster their own growth by stimulating investment in the green economy. This is a real challenge in this moment of global warming and pollution, and meeting it could contribute to sustainable growth. Many sectors of the economy would be involved, including research and development and hence services, housing (a massive energy consumer), all branches of industry, and also agriculture. Moreover, this could bring the rise of new industries producing solar, wind and tidal energy. The twentieth century was oil; the twenty-first could be solar. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) solar power produces only 0.1% of the world's electricity today, but the figure could reach 25% by 2050. These may seem distant prospects, but we need to start investing now in the high value added and low-carbon energy technologies of the future, which could well become one of the new driving forces of the global economy._Yann Lacroix 3
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