Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions, Second Edition

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The Top 20 (Plus 5) Technologies for the World Ahead By James H. Irvine and Sandra Schwarzbach Breakthroughs now emerging in biotechnology, robotics, and other key areas bear the potential to reshape life on Earth. Two military analysts describe the 20 innovations that will have the biggest impacts in the near future, plus five prospective technologies that could have major repercussions in the longer term. Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions 9
A bout 10 years ago, we at the Naval Air Warfare Center in Southern California set out to determine how emerging technologies might change armed conflict over the next 25 to 50 years. We selected 200 new technological applications, projecting out their growth and how they might influence future military strategy and warfare. Our conclusion: These technologies would be major drivers of not only future military affairs, but of virtually all of human life. From these 200, we examine here what we consider the top 20 innovations that will have the greatest effect in the near term; in addition, we’ve selected five other feasible technological developments that could significantly change our world in the more distant future. 1. Computer Technology Computing power has increased by a factor of 10 6 since 1959. Based on present-day central processing technology, we can expect a 10 8 further improvement in the next 30 to 40 years. Advances of up to 10 18 (100 quintillion) could result, if any of the following innovations (which already exist at the laboratory level) undergo further development: • Parallel processing. • Advanced computer architecture. • Special function processing chips. • Special function analysis chips. Such a level of enhanced computer performance would require much more advanced production technologies, including new chip production technologies; new types of computer chips, circuit elements, and computer architectures and software; and a projected 10 5 improvement in telecommunications-transmission rates over the next 25 years. 2. Ubiquitous Computing Household appliances and many other items in our everyday lives will be embedded with cheap and barely detectable microchips, sensors, microcontrollers, and microprocessors that sense our presence, anticipate our wishes, and read our emotions. Imbued with these tiny yet powerful computing components, appliances and consumer products will become “intelligent.” They will interconnect and communicate with each other via network grids. The ubiquitous-computing phenomenon will be further enabled by three new technologies: • MEMS. Micro-electro-mechanical systems integrate items such as sensors, computers, data storage, and transmission systems onto a single computer chip. MEMS are small, low mass, lightweight, low power, and easy to mass produce. They also measure a wide range of physical phenomena, such as acceleration, inertia, and vibration. They can be analytical instruments to measure biological or physical states and can also be active response systems. • Bots. Formally known as semiintelligent specialized agent software programs, bots can automatically sort data based on set preferences, keep track of specific dynamic data sets (such as checkbook balances or inventories), maintain schedules and calendars, and track movement of things and people while integrating them with outside events. Bots are also capable of interacting with other computer software and other bots on their own initiative to accomplish tasks independently of a human user. The general deployment of bots is projected to occur in the next seven to 10 years, pending the rollout of more advanced processor hardware. Masses of bots and bots-inhabited equipment will work together without human initiative—or even human knowledge—to automate large portions of society’s routine activities. Bots will also manage computer networks. By 2025, the Internet will have evolved into a bot-coordinated, bot-directed “information grid” that connects billions of devices, nodes, and sensors to each other. Under bot management, the Internet will be much more dynamic than it is today. • Swarm technology. Network command-and-control system architecture will be very unlike that of networks today. The ability to understand and manage the collective movements, reactions, and interactions of masses of interconnected items will be critical. Swarm technology—i.e., decentralized arrays of agents or programs interacting locally with one another and with their surroundings, thus carrying out “intelligent” large-scale behavior (much like an ant colony, bacterial culture, or school of fish)—will be important in the near future for controlling and managing this new system. 3. Human Language Interface for Computers Another great technological advance of the next 20 years will be the development of computers with human-language interfaces that fully comprehend human words—both spoken and written—and their meanings and that will talk, listen, and read aloud in humanlike voices. Some applications will permit information retrieval using natural language and automated foreign language translation for print and voice. Also, semi-intelligent personal search agents will use humanlanguage interfaces to search the Internet’s databases and archives to compile information in specialized fields of knowledge and areas of interest based on the human user’s specific interests and wishes. The human language computer interface could potentially transform society from a written culture to one relying more on verbal interactions. This interface will also automate a large number of voice-based activities, such as placing orders, asking directions, and executing verbal instructions to perform complex tasking. The education system and service area will both become more automated. 4. Machine Vision Machine vision that will become available in five to 15 years will grow more sophisticated over time. 10 Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions
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