Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions, Second Edition

vated terror, and régime-based terror.
Members of the emerging generation,
operating under the new paradigm,
are much more likely to see
themselves as cellular automata—
trying to optimize themselves in
their environment—rather than as
governors of the universe. Whether
this is good for society as a whole is
not yet known, but it will represent a
new social viewpoint.
New socio-technological ages tend
to produce new social structures and
new social mores. Historical precedent
suggests that this new age will
also produce a new and different societal
basis for war and the use of
military force, along with a new social
perception of the legitimate application
of war.
“Technological progress alone is relatively slow at
driving social change. However, the near future will
see society change markedly as a result of new
emerging technology and demography.”
level, will require recognition that
specialized knowledge is necessary
and that all classes serve useful functions
and are needed for society to
operate properly.
It is usually hard to change the direction
of society, absent great social
perturbations, such as war or economic
disaster, which can force
rapid social change. In an age of
peace and prosperity, it takes a long
time to modify social norms, regardless
of the level of new technological
progress that occurs. Technological
progress alone is relatively slow at
driving social change. However, the
near future will see society change
markedly as a result of new emerging
technology and demography.
This need not be any cause for
alarm. With some exceptions, most
of the changes described portend to
be highly positive. Barring bad luck
and bad management, the world
will—when all the technologies are
deployed—be a better place to live
in.
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this article advance along their individual
development curves, their
combined effect will remake society
as we know it. Ultimately, they will
give humankind two new sociotechnological
ages in the first half of
the twenty-first century: the Information
Age and the Robotic-Biotech
Age. The current Information Age,
which should continue for the next
20 to 40 years, is being driven by advances
in computers, telecommunications,
and electronic instrumentation,
plus major advances in
materials, space, energy, and manufacturing.
The Robotic-Biotech Age will follow
at around 2025, driven by the simultaneous
advances of robotics and
biotechnology, and reinforced by advances
in nanotechnology, materials,
and manufacturing technology. The
Robotic-Biotech Age will continue
for 50-plus years, until another great
technology emerges as a new force
in the world.
The Information Age came on very
quickly and will be relatively shortlived
(about 50 years). Society and
social structure will not have had the
time to fully adjust before the next
wave of technological innovation
comes along. This speed of change is
going to continue for the next 50 to
75 years as the current wave of
emerging technologies matures.
In the twentieth century, many
people viewed the philosophical
movements to which they belonged
(communism, fascism, various radical
nationalisms, socialism, social democracy,
liberalism, etc.) as belief systems
that would and should govern
how the world runs. In the name of
these systems, 500 million people
died by war, genocide, war-related
famine and disease, politically moti-
It is possible to project with some
certainty the social structure of both
the new Information Age and the
Robotic-Biotech Age (see graph on
page 19). With each transition to a
more advanced stage of civilization,
certain things transpire:
• The social structure acquires an
increasingly large number of small,
specialized niches.
• There is a significant increase in
the number of players in the political
power structure.
• There is an increasing spread of
knowledge out to the masses.
• The average person’s standard
of living goes up.
• Human control over nature increases.
As society has advanced, class
structure has become more complex.
In the later Information Age and
Robotic- Biotech Age, there will be
simply too many classes for a dominant
one to emerge. The complexity
of the new social structure, coupled
with the rise in general knowledge
Irvine
Schwarzbach
About the Authors
James Irvine is director of the Revolution
in Military Affairs Program at the Naval
Air Warfare Center, Weapons Division
(NAWCWD) in China Lake, California. He
has worked as a systems engineer for the
U.S. Navy for the last four decades, and
has authored numerous studies on future
military geopolitics and technology. E-mail
james.irvine@navy.mil.
Sandra Schwarzbach is senior strategic
analyst for the Naval Air Warfare Center at
China Lake, California. She advises the Office
of the Secretary of Defense and the
Chief of Naval Operations on security issues
and contributes regularly to Department
of Defense planning initiatives. She
has also taught courses on military strategy
development and participated in the design
of multiple weapons and weapon systems.
E-mail Sandra.schwarzbach@navy.mil.
Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions 17