Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions, Second Edition

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Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions, 2nd Edition. World Future Society. 2011. Introduction Futurists are a unique breed of thinkers, who aren’t content with simply being told what the future may be like. They have an urgent need to know how other prognosticators arrive at their conclusions, they question the levels of uncertainty about these forecasts, and—more importantly—they want their own tools and resources for understanding all aspects of the future. For this second edition of the World Future Society’s exclusive report for its new members, the editors of THE FUTURIST magazine have selected recent articles that deliver the best possible introduction to what futurists do. We begin with an overview of the global problems we now face, as two prominent futurists offer their unique perspectives on four different scenarios for how the world may address these problems. The remainder of this report comprises thought-provoking articles that cover the six principal areas of futures analysis: Science and Technology, Earth, Humanity, Commerce, Governance, and the field of Futuring itself. We hope this introduction to the future will show you that the urgent warnings all around us can inspire innovative breakthrough solutions that will help us all build a better tomorrow today. Cynthia G. Wagner Editor, THE FUTURIST Overview 2 The Global MegaCrisis: Four Scenarios, Two Perspectives By William E. Halal and Michael Marien Sci/Tech 9 The Top 20 (Plus 5) Technologies for the World Ahead By James H. Irvine and Sandra Schwarzbach 18 The Coming Robot Evolution Race By Steven M. Shaker Earth 22 Eroding Futures: Why Healthy Soil Matters to Civilization By Lester R. Brown 30 A Convenient Truth about Clean Energy By Carl E. Schoder Commerce 35 Relationships, Community, and Identity in the New Virtual Society By Arnold Brown 41 The Singularity’s Impact on Business Leaders: A Scenario By Barton Kunstler 48 Why Farmers Need a Pay Raise By Julian Cribb Humanity 51 The World Is My School: Welcome to the Era of Personalized Learning By Maria H. Andersen 57 Global, Mobile, Virtual, and Social: The College Campus of Tomorrow By John Dew Governance 62 Technology’s Role in Revolution: Internet Freedom and Political Oppression By Evgeny Morozov 66 Asia Redraws the Map of Progress By Joergen Oerstroem Moeller Futuring 72 Strategies for Living a Very Long Life By Verne Wheelwright 78 Building a Better Future for Haiti A discussion with Raymond Alcide Joseph, Paul Joseph, and Emmanuel Henry, conducted by Timothy Mack and Cynthia G. Wagner
By William E. Halal and Michael Marien Global MegaCrisis Four Scenarios, Two Perspectives Two futurists map out the convergence of multiple global challenges, offering divergent viewpoints—one optimistic and one pessimistic— on the likelihood of successfully meeting these challenges and turning them into global progress. Killer pandemics, financial meltdowns, runaway global warming, environmental decay, nuclear war, cyberdisasters: These catastrophes are becoming increasingly routine headlines. But as the mainstream press focuses only on individual extreme events, attention is drawn away from an issue far more complex: the convergence of multiple problems into a Global MegaCrisis. This article offers an explanation of this complex issue, as well as four plausible scenarios based on how we and our institutions approach it. The Global MegaCrisis cuts across all sectors in an era of multiple transformations. The Iraq War demonstrated the limits of U.S. military power, and the 2008 global financial crisis highlighted the limits of deregulated markets. With these founda- tions of the old global order shaken badly, the growing threat of climate change, looming energy shortages, huge government deficits, terrorism, and a host of wild cards now form a complex interplay of destructive forces that are straining established systems to the breaking point. These multiple threats converge like a multi-vehicle freeway pileup in slow motion. If it had not been bad mortgages and arcane derivatives, other driving forces in these complex systems might have caused roughly the same type of global failure. And more failures seem all too likely. The Global MegaCrisis: What Is It And What Does It Look Like? The MegaCrisis, simply defined, is a global environmental and eco- nomic collapse or near collapse, along with attendant problems of rising prices, mass protests, widespread psychic stress, and lawlessness. We present the following tentative outline to better paint a picture of what MegaCrisis might look like. Some Trends Driving the MegaCrisis • Climate Change, No Matter What. The year 2010 marked the hottest year (and decade) on record. The world has already seen a 1°F temperature rise, and an additional 4°–6° rise is likely even if all proposed actions are taken. Expect possibly 10°F in the next few decades if greenhouse gases keep growing. In addition, the projected sea-level rise in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was 16 inches by 2100; now it is about three to six feet by 2100. 2 Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions
Page 1: • The Global MegaCrisis • Erodi
Page 5 and 6: Most corporations remain focused on
Page 7 and 8: Marien’s Analysis: Infoglut, Igno
Page 9 and 10: Defining and Anticipating the Globa
Page 11 and 12: A bout 10 years ago, we at the Nava
Page 13 and 14: Nanotubes are hollow, tubelike stru
Page 15 and 16: © LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LAB
Page 17 and 18: The new Information Age is being dr
Page 19 and 20: The Coming Robot By Steven M. Shake
Page 21 and 22: “We will adapt our DNA to more re
Page 23 and 24: Eroding Futures Why Healthy Soil Ma
Page 25 and 26: JAMES YOUNG / USDA-ARS In a U.S. pa
Page 27 and 28: and underweight. Africa, too, is su
Page 29 and 30: S S References and Resources S S Da
Page 31 and 32: A Convenient Truth About Clean Ener
Page 33 and 34: The Aswan Dam in Egypt (pictured ab
Page 35 and 36: “solar-ammonia-hydrogen” energy
Page 37 and 38: tating and managing relationships o
Page 39 and 40: By William Sims Bainbridge Avatars
Page 41 and 42: continued from page 37 ing to some
Page 43 and 44: The “Human Singularity” refers
Page 45 and 46: What It Will Mean to Be “Human”
Page 47 and 48: staff members, you realize that eve
Page 49 and 50: Why Farmers Need a Pay Raise Global
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ILLUSTRATIONS: SCOTT SPENCER, DIANE
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mented in Google Voice, there’s n
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tagged with medicine or epidemiolog
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If Theobald and Scott were writing
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OPEN YALE COURSES, HTTP://OYC.YALE.
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By Evgeny Morozov Revolutions depen
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engines are not for “What is Demo
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By Joergen Oerstroem Moeller Asia R
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CHINESE BUSINESSWOMAN BY ZHU DIFENG
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“Global food production will need
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ÖZGÜR DONMAZ / ISTOCKPHOTO Strate
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sports and hobbies, travel, and spe
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ing or nursing home. • Strategies
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Building a Better Future for Haiti
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feel that we have to entice a perce
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and … his kind. And I was condemn
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