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approval patterns for GM crops in exporting and
importing countries have been reviewed in the scientific
literature and will not be considered further in this chapter
(see Stein and Rodríguez-Cerezo, 2009, 2010).
The predicted future trends in global population are
also likely to shift the balance in international trade
relations. Most of the population growth is expected
to occur in Sub-Saharan African countries and in Asia 6
and as a result food demand will increase considerably.
Although this represents a huge humanitarian challenge,
it also signifies a very important market opportunity
for commodity exporting countries (see the section on
Australia in Appendix 3). One implication of the rise in
Asian food demand may be that the EU will have to face
increasing competition with other countries in agricultural
commodity markets.
2.2.3 Global trends in agricultural research and
development
The past couple of decades have witnessed a shift in
the global distribution of investment in science and
innovation, particularly pertaining to agricultural research.
Although traditionally the USA, Europe and Japan have
led in terms of investment in R&D, their dominance
is increasingly challenged by emerging economies
(UNESCO, 2010; ASTI, 2012). A growing number of
public and private research hubs are being established
in developing countries, which are emerging as key
technology providers (Ruane, 2013).
Between 2000 and 2008 public investment in research
and development (in all areas of science and technology)
in China dramatically increased from about 90 billion yuan
(US$10.8 billion) to over 460 billion yuan (US$66.5 billion)
at an average annual growth rate of 23% (UNESCO,
2010). In the same period, public spending in agricultural
research doubled 7 . In India, one of the fastest-growing
economies in the world, strong government commitment
has also resulted in a near doubling of public investment
in agricultural R&D since the mid-1990s. After China and
India, Brazil ranks third in terms of agricultural investment
in developing countries (ASTI, 2012).
This trend is even clearer when the contribution of the
private sector to science and technology is considered
(UNESCO, 2010; Brookes and Barfoot, 2012; Dixelius
et al., 2012; Pray, 2012). In 2006, 16% of China’s
total spending on agricultural R&D came from private
enterprises, up from less than 3% in 1995 (ASTI, 2012).
Similarly, private investment in agricultural R&D has
increased fivefold in India since the mid-1990s (ASTI,
2012). Private-sector firms have become major players in
developing new innovations for agriculture worldwide
(Pray, 2012).
Some of the factors driving companies to invest in
agricultural research include the emergence of scientific
advances, the strengthening of intellectual property
rights, the global expansion of markets for agricultural
inputs (including seeds), and changing government
regulations. Average annual growth in sales of crop seed
and biotechnology traits between 1994 and 2009 was
estimated at 6.9%, and in 2006 the market sales in the
sector were worth US$20 billion (Fuglie et al., 2011).
The rapid growth of sales of GM products in developing
countries has attracted private sector investment in
research to the countries where farmers are using the
technology. Private-sector R&D expenditures in input
industries increased by more than 40% in (inflationadjusted)
US dollars over the period 1994–2010 (Fuglie
et al., 2011). The most R&D-intensive sector is crop
biotechnology. In 2009, research intensity was over 10%
of the value of annual seed sales (Fuglie et al., 2011).
Some examples of products developed to address the
needs of emerging economies include GM white maize in
South Africa and hundreds of Bt cotton hybrids developed
by the private sector to suit local agricultural conditions
in India (da Silveira and Borges, 2005; Pray, 2012; see
country sections below and Chapter 3). Investment
in agricultural research to develop GM products for
developing countries as public–private partnerships is also
significant 8 .
In the EU this trend is reversed. The misuse of the
precautionary principle has led to restrictive legislation
and both a political and market mistrust of genetically
modified organisms (GMOs). This has had a profound
chilling effect on both public and private investment for
European agricultural research (see Chapter 4). This trend
is also reflected in the steady decrease in the number
of field trials of GM crops in Europe: the number of
applications submitted in 2012 were 44 (30 in Spain),
down from 51 in 2011, 83 in 2010, and 113 in 2009 9 .
6
During 2011–2100, six countries are expected to account for half of the world’s projected population increase: India, Nigeria,
the USA, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the United Republic of Tanzania and Uganda, listed according to the size of their
contribution to global population growth. Source: World Population Prospects – The 2010 Revision, prepared by the Population
Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/
Documentation/pdf/WPP2010_Highlights.pdf.
7
China has the world’s largest and most decentralised public agricultural research and development system. It employs over
40,000 researchers in more than 1,000 research agencies at the national, provincial and prefectural levels (Chen et al., 2012).
8
For a list of PPP for R&D projects of GM crops see http://www.syngentafoundation.org/index.cfm?pageID=745&country=&sortitem=
projectType_ID_FK&projectType_ID_FK=6
9
http://gmoinfo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gmp_browse.aspx.
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