Planting the future: opportunities and challenges for using ... - EASAC

iotechnology will cover both patent law and the law on
plant variety rights.
4.7 Looking forward: new challenges, new
products, new strategies
4.7.1 Shifting pathogen populations and other
environmental changes
Pathogen populations
Wheat, barley and potato are primary tillage crops across
Europe but all three succumb to significant disease
pressures that growers have to counter with the use of
high inputs of fungicides. Unsustainable in the long-term,
the current strategies have led to an accelerated rate of
genetic change in pathogen populations. For example,
Septoria tritici blotch disease is the primary pathogen of
European wheat necessitating about 70% of Europe’s
annual cereal fungicide use to mitigate yield losses. Yet,
the evolution of fungicide resistance in populations of
Septoria tritici blotch (Fraaije et al., 2007; Cools and
Hammond-Kosack, 2013) has led to the elimination of
strobilurins and several triazole classes as effective agents
of control. Similarly, the emergence of novel strains of
potato late blight disease (Phytophthora infestans) has
created significant challenges to potato production
(Cooke et al., 2012). New approaches to generating
durable biotic resistance in crops are needed urgently.
Climate change
The previous EASAC report on Plant genetic resources
for food and agriculture (EASAC, 2011) discussed the
increasing policy challenges in the EU associated with
CAP reform in general and food security in particular, with
concomitant objectives for promoting sustainable rural
development and avoiding continuing loss of biodiversity.
That report also noted the impending likely problems for
agriculture attributable to climate change and welcomed
the proposed strategy (European Commission, 2009) for
combining action to make better use of existing genetic
diversity and capitalising on new opportunities offered
by biotechnology. The European Commission’s highly
important Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture,
Food Security and Climate Change is now underway
(European Commission, 2011c). The application of plant
sciences should have a central role in this initiative (EPSO,
2012) in delivering the stated objectives for sustainable
intensification of agricultural systems, balanced with
biodiversity and ecosystem services, and accompanied
by greenhouse gas mitigation. Although we cannot be
certain how climate change will affect agriculture in
Europe (EASAC, 2011), we do know that improved crop
traits will be required to adapt to more variable local
conditions. It is likely that northern Europe will experience
a warmer and more humid climate subjecting crop
productivity to increased biotic stress from insects, and
fungal pathogens, whereas crops in southern Europe
will have to be adapted to drier conditions (O’Brien and
Mullins, 2009; Fagerstrom et al., 2012).
To reiterate a previous point, these challenges will
be compounded by the impact of EU environmental
legislation governing use of water (Water Framework
Directive 2000/60/EC), nitrates (Directive 91/676/EEC),
phosphorus (Dangerous Substances Directive 76/464/
EEC) and pesticides (revision of Pesticide Directive 91/414/
EEC), creating new opportunities for GM crops to
contribute to agricultural policy objectives (O’Brien and
Mullins, 2009; Tardieu and Hammer, 2012).
In addition to these domestic objectives, it is also highly
desirable for EU R&D to play its part in tackling the wider
global challenges to agriculture arising from climate
change. There is much research to be done to assess how
these challenges will affect yield. Investment in research,
for example in silico modelling and systems biology
analysis, is needed now to identify the likely physiological
traits required, followed by testing in controlled
environments modelling likely future scenarios.
4.7.2 The food crop pipeline
The current major GM crops commercialised worldwide
involve relatively simple changes to provide herbicide
tolerance and insect resistance. In addition to the
progressive combination of existing traits (stacking
of individual GM events), the next decade will see a
broader market introduction of new agronomic traits
such as drought resistance, virus resistance, nutritional
improvements (beta-carotene in rice and altered fatty acid
profile in soybean) and the extension of modifications
to other crops (Stein and Rodriquez-Cerezo, 2009,
2010). It has been predicted that technology providers
will increasingly emerge from Asia as a major source
of GM events (Stein and Rodriguez-Cerezo, 2009,
2010; Grushkin, 2012). For example, the Chinese
government policy statement in 2010 committed to the
industrialisation of GM food crops following on from
major investment in plant sciences in rice, maize (for
better use of phosphorus in animal feed), rapeseed,
soybean, sweet pepper, papaya, and wheat, variously for
yield, quality, nutritional value, drought tolerance, salinity
tolerance and pest-resistance. Recent evidence collated
by FAO indicates a considerable quantity and variety of
GM crops in the pipeline that may be commercialised
in developing countries within the next 5 years (Ruane,
2013; see Chapter 2).
As discussed previously, there will be continuing progress
in combining genetic modification technology with
improved plant breeding to accelerate trait selection (Royal
Society, 2009; Grushkin, 2012) and the impact of the New
Breeding Techniques will become increasingly apparent
(Lusser et al., 2012a, b; Grushkin, 2012). It can also be
predicted (see Chapter 2) that if disparities in the approval
rate of GM events worldwide (asynchronous approval)
32 | June 2013 | Planting the future EASAC