Climate Change - Cohen Commission

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Table 1.1. Summary of the publications evaluating the effects of climate-related variables on survival of sockeye salmon. Also presented is the qualitative assessment of the likelihood that recent trends in climate have affected (decreased or increased) or not the survival of different life stages of Fraser River sockeye salmon over the past 20 years. Life stage egg and alevin Publication Brett (1951) Thorne & Ames (1987) Murray & McPhail (1988) Beacham & Murray (1989) Beacham & Murray (1990) <strong>Climate</strong>-related variable precip flow temp temp temp Variable range 0.3-1.810 3 1-910 3 2-14 2-15 2-16 Relationship with survival + opt a , none b opt a , none b opt a , none b Type of study field field lab lab lab Recent trend NA NA NA NA NA Likelihood of recent change in survival possibly increased (egg) unlikely changed (alevin) (but direction or magnitude of effects may vary by stock) Brett (1952) temp 0-25 opt lab NA Sylvester (1972) temp 7-17 c lab NA fry in lakes Bower & Margolis (1985) temp 5-20 opt d lab NA possibly decreased Adkison et al (1996) temp NA e , none f field no Mueter et al. (2005) temp NA e , + f field no Hsieh et al. (1991) temp NA field no Hinch et al. (1995) temp 8-11 field no Adkison et al. (1996) temp NA none e , + f field no smolt and postsmolt Mueter et al. (2002) Mueter et al. (2005) Martinson et al (2009) temp temp temp precip NA NA 4-6 0.6-1.410 3 e , + f e , + f + + field field field no no no likely decreased Hsieh et al. (1991) temp NA field no immature in the ocean Martinson et al. (2009) temp 4-6 + field no possibly decreased precip 0.6-1.410 3 + Servizi & Jensen (1977) temp 18-30 lab NA returning adult Macdonald et al. (2000a) temp flow 15-17.5 6-910 3 field no very likely decreased (but not in all stocks) Macdonald et al. (2000b) temp 15-19 field no 79
flow 3-710 3 g Naughton et al. (2005) temp 13-23 field NA flow 2-1010 3 + Crossin et al. (2008) temp 10-18 lab NA Farrell et al (2008) temp 13-22 field no Keefer et al. (2008) temp 15-24 field no flow 0.1-1.610 3 + Macdonald et al. (2010) English (2010) Martins et al. (2011) K. Jeffries (unpub.data) E. Martins (unpub.data) temp flow temp temp temp temp 9-20 1-1110 3 15-22 13-19 13-19 15-19 none h , none i , none j , field field field lab field no no no NA no spawner (survival to spawn) Gilhousen (1990) Macdonald et al. (2000b) Quinn et al. (2007) temp temp temp 8.7-19.2 15-19 NA none k , none l , field field field no no NA possibly decreased (but not in all stocks) Type of study (lab and field) shown in bold denotes laboratory or field studies that included Fraser River sockeye salmon. The „Recent trend‟ column shows whether publications including Fraser River sockeye salmon present a recent (i.e. extending at least into part of the period of interest in this report) trend in survival (raw data or results from statistical analyses) that follows a trend in a climaterelated variable. Abbreviations used in table are: temp (temperature), precip (precipitation), and opt (optimum; denotes a relationship where survival is maximum at a given value of a climate-related variable and declines towards lower and higher values). Symbols used in table are: (denotes negative relationship), and + (denotes positive relationship). <strong>Climate</strong>-related variable units are: o C (temperature), mm (precipitation), and m 3 /s (flow). NA denotes information that could not be found in the publication or that do not apply to our assessment (e.g. does not relate to Fraser River sockeye salmon). a relationship with survival of eggs; b relationship with survival of alevins; c mortality increased with temperature through an increase in predation rates; d relationship likely reflects an optimum temperature at around 13 o C for the pathogenicity of the parasite; e relationship with survival of Fraser River sockeye salmon; f relationship with survival of Alaska sockeye salmon; g no relationship 80
Page 1 and 2:
The Cohen Commission of Inquiry int
Page 3 and 4:
Preface Fraser River sockeye salmon
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Executive summary Effects of clima
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the ecological, economic and social
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mortality of a run-timing group exc
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Cumulative impacts, carry-over and
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3. Summary… .....................
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List of Figures Figure 1.1. Tempora
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migration phenomenon began in 1995.
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1. Effects of climate and climate c
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Abstracts. In both search engines,
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The effects of climate-related vari
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experienced during incubation (i.e.
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1.4.5. Returning adults The relatio
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Such recent changes in climate have
Page 31 and 32: 1.6. Qualitative assessment of the
Page 33 and 34: eason, we based our assessment of r
Page 35 and 36: (2008) suggested that phenological
Page 37 and 38: 2. Adult mortality during river mig
Page 39 and 40: spring freshet (Macdonald et al. 20
Page 41 and 42: migration behavior has resulted in
Page 43 and 44: the coast during their homeward mig
Page 45 and 46: levels of en route mortality occurr
Page 47 and 48: stocks (e.g. Early Stuart) and earl
Page 49 and 50: sockeye salmon as they migrate thro
Page 51 and 52: that energy exhaustion on spawning
Page 53 and 54: effects of adverse river conditions
Page 55 and 56: 3. Summary 3.1. Climate change effe
Page 57 and 58: 4. Recommendations: Filling scienti
Page 59 and 60: grounds - these data are converted
Page 61 and 62: ix) Carry-over and intergenerationa
Page 63 and 64: Beacham, T. D. & Murray, C. B. (198
Page 65 and 66: individual mortality in Pacific sal
Page 67 and 68: Dempson, J. B., Furey, G. & Bloom,
Page 69 and 70: Fraser, D. J., Weir, L. K., Bernatc
Page 71 and 72: Hinch, S. G. & Rand, P. S. (1998) S
Page 73 and 74: Levy, D. A. (1992) Potential impact
Page 75 and 76: surface mobility and embryo surviva
Page 77 and 78: www.psc.org/info_laterunsockeye.htm
Page 79 and 80: Roscoe, D. W., Hinch, S. G., Cooke,
Page 81: Woodey, J. C. (1987) In season mana
Page 85 and 86: Figure 1.1. Temporal trends (decade
Page 87 and 88: Figure 2.2. Relationship between en
Page 89 and 90: Figure 2.4. A) Total run size of ad
Page 91 and 92: Figure 2.6. A) Total run size of ad
Page 93 and 94: Figure 2.8. Daily average temperatu
Page 95 and 96: Figure 2.10. Relationship for Early
Page 97 and 98: Figure 2.12. Pre-spawn mortality by
Page 99 and 100: APPENDIX 1 Statement of Work: Scott
Page 101 and 102: 4.6 The Consultant will participate
Page 103 and 104: 3.7 The review will look specifical
Page 105 and 106: is a strength but would have been a
Page 107 and 108: Response: Due to the integration of
Page 109 and 110: makes sense to use it as a backbone
Page 111 and 112: Report Title: Adult Mortality durin
Page 113 and 114: For example, more than 3,000 ARGO o
Page 115 and 116: Report Title: The Effects of Climat
Page 117 and 118: Government, who has statutory autho
Page 119 and 120: Response: The 20-year time frame is
Page 121 and 122: are not necessarily related to clim
Page 123 and 124: up a bit. In addition, I disagree w
Page 125 and 126: oute mortality? For which populatio
Page 127 and 128: APPENDIX 4 List of publications use
Page 129 and 130: Cox, S. P. & Hinch, S. G. (1997) Ch
Page 131 and 132: Hodgson, S. & Quinn, T. P. (2002) T
Page 133 and 134:
Martinson, E. C., Helle, J. H., Sca
Page 135 and 136:
Pyper, B. J. & Peterman, R. M. (199
Page 137:
Tolson, G. M. (1988) Locomotor resp
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Climate Change - Cohen Commission

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